What’s Wrong With The Cavaliers?
The Cleveland Cavaliers got off to a blazing hot start this season, but since Christmas, the team has not been quite the same. What is going on, and how can the Cavaliers fix their problems?
In any NBA season, most teams are going to have their ups and their downs. There’s normally hot streaks and there’s almost always cold streaks. You’ll have injuries, you’ll have illnesses, you’ll have trades, you’ll have contract disputes, you’ll have fights, you’ll have periods when the chemistry is low. That’s what makes the NBA so much fun. It’s a long 82 game season, and over the course of those 82 games, it’s fun to see how teams respond to their given levels of adversity.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are no exception. Despite their scorching start to the season, something happened right around Christmas, and the Cavaliers are facing their first real adversity and their first real cold streak. The team is not playing good basketball at all right now, but is it time to worry yet?
Perhaps the best way to answer that question is to try to see what exactly is going on right now with the Cavaliers. Even though the Christmas evening game against the Washington Wizards was the probably the first time the Cavaliers’ current issues so blatantly manifested themselves, signs of some impending troubles were showing up even before hand.
Out of the Gate
After the Cavaliers got off to that uneasy 1-2 start to this season, they proceeded to notch their first 7 game winning streak of the season. A loss at Detroit broke up that streak, but then the Cavaliers went right back on another tear, ripping off 11 straight wins until a loss at Atlanta broke that up. It was over that 11 game winning streak that the Cavaliers were playing unstoppable basketball, and they were simply shredding opponents. The most impressive part was that they were doing it with their offense. Over that 11 game winning streak, the Cavaliers were averaging 22.36 assists per game to just 11.90 turnovers for 105.27 points per game. 6 of the Cavaliers top 10 scoring outputs this season took place over those 11 games and six of their top 10 rebounding outputs took place over those 11 games. For the Cavaliers, those 11 games were as good as it gets.
After the Atlanta loss, though, things never really picked up again. Sure, after the Atlanta game the Cavaliers went on another 6 game winning streak, but suddenly the wins were a struggle. The Cavaliers had to use an incredible last minute rally to beat the struggling Wizards team on Christmas, and then LeBron James had to use a superhuman effort to lead the Cavaliers to a 35-19 fourth quarter advantage over Miami to win that one against the Heat. Even wins against Western Conference bottom dwellers like Minnesota and Oklahoma City were tough games for the Cavaliers over that 6 game streak.
The Start of a Slide?
When Miami beat the Cavaliers on LeBron’s birthday, it started a stretch where the Cavaliers have now lost 2 of their last 3 games, culminating with the Cavaliers first truly bad loss of the season last game against the Wizards.
The Cavaliers problems aren’t really on the defensive side of the ball. Sure, the interior defense isn’t quite as crisp as it was earlier in the year, and teams have been finding ways to exploit the Cavaliers’ style of help defense to get some easy baskets behind the defensive rotations, but for the most part, the opponents’ FG% has still been held in check and the Cavaliers are still 2nd in the NBA in that stat. To that point, only once in the last 16 games has an opponent scored 95 or more points against the Cavaliers, and that was the Heat when they just went insane in the 4th quarter to beat the Cavs.
Instead, the problems have been with the offense. Qualitatively, you can tell things aren’t right just by watching the Cavaliers play. There has been almost a complete reversion to the 2007-08 Cavaliers offensive “system” of guys just standing around, watching LeBron do his thing, and then taking a bunch of outside jump shots for low percentages. Rather than just looking at this subjectively, though, the Cavaliers’ offensive woes can be quantified objectively by looking at the statistics.
Over their last 10 games, the Cavaliers’ assists per game have fallen to 19.1 per game while the turnovers have risen to 12.8 per game. Over those 10 games, their scoring output has declined to 97.1 points per game, and it would be a lot lower if it weren’t for that 117 point game against the Bulls the other night. In those 10 games, the Cavaliers have had only 2 good rebounding games (46+). Furthermore, even the FT shooting, once a strength of the Cavaliers, has completely fallen off. The Cavaliers have only been over 80% from the line twice in the last 10 games. In the 11 game winning streak, the Cavaliers were shooting 48.83% from the field. In the 10 games since, they’re down to 46.56% from the field. Almost entirely across the board, no matter which offensive statistic you want to look at, the Cavaliers are struggling right now.
So what’s the common bond here?
What’s the catalyst for this sudden decline and regression in offense for the Cavaliers? Well, it’s important to look at something that happened late in the last game of the Cavaliers’ 11 game winning streak. In that game, on December 12th against the 76ers, 
Zydrunas Ilgauskas screwed up his foot when he went up to block a Donyell Marshall shot and came down on his foot. Big Z missed the next game, the loss in Atlanta, and the offense hasn’t been the same since.
This stands as some pretty overwhelming evidence, myopic as it may be over just 10 games, of just how valuable Ilgauskas truly is to the Cavaliers and how much of the offensive burden he takes off of everyone else on the team.
Anderson Varejao has had to step into the starting role, and as solid as his play has been this season for Cleveland, he’s not playing at near the same level Ilgauskas was before his injury. You’ve seen Ben Wallace have to take more shots since Big Z went down. We’ve seen more minutes for rookie JJ Hickson, and while he’s been impressive in stretches, he still lacks any kind of consistency or reliability.
In fact, since Ilgauskas went down against Philly, the Cavaliers have only scored over 100 points three times. One game was against one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Thunder. One of the other ones was against Denver, when Big Z actually played well and had 23 points. The other one was against Chicago the other night when Andy went nuts for 26 points.
You can’t overlook all the different ways Ilgauskas helps the Cavaliers on offense. First of all, he gives them a consistent inside presence who can score in the post, get offensive rebounds, and tip in a lot of misses. Furthermore, his ability to knock down the outside shot allows him to be much more effective in the pick and roll game as he can peel off outside and draw a defender to him, which opens up the middle and creates more space for the other Cavaliers to cut to the basket and find easy shots. If you want to know what’s wrong with the Cavaliers, look no further than the injured big man and the impact of his absence on the whole team.
So should we be worried?
It’s a little too early to tell yet. As of now, Ilgauskas is only expected to miss up to a month. The most important thing for the Cavaliers is to get Z healthy and not rush him back. They cannot afford to allow this injury to linger too much into the playoffs. The Cavaliers are a good enough team without Ilgauskas to finish with no worse than the 3 seed in the Eastern Conference, and we know what the Cavaliers can do with a healthy Z.
However, just because the Cavaliers are good enough that high without Z, it doesn’t mean they will. The Cavaliers desperately need to get more offensive consistency out of Anderson Varejao, but there’s no guarantee he has that in him. That’s not really where he excels and what he’s best at doing for the team. If anything, the Ilgauskas injury emphasizes more than ever just how important it is for the Cavaliers to still pick up another big man, somehow, who can help out on offense.
At the end of the day, the Cavaliers may be faced with a tough question. Do they rush Ilgauskas back onto the court to help make sure the Cavaliers secure at least the two seed in the East and possibly even challenge for the one seed, or do they take their time, just get into the playoffs any way possible, and see what they can do with a fresh and healthy Ilgauskas? There’s still plenty of time left in the season, and the Cavs aren’t at the point of having to think like this yet, but if Ilgauskas’s injury is worse than believed or takes longer to heal than expected, then the Cavaliers could be in a little bit of trouble.
The bottom line is, the Cavaliers need to play better basketball, and they have to find a way to do it without Z. Trading Wally for an experienced big man is always going to be an option, but for right now, these players need to find a way to step up and help LeBron without just standing around shooting jumpshots. Mike Brown has been much improved as a coach this year, but now he faces his biggest challenge yet this year….find a way to get this team to stick with the offense even without Ilgauskas around.
January 7th, 2009 at 10:14 am
I think it’s as simple as this:
They’re reading their press clippings about how great they are, and they’re not bringing the same intensity. Same thing is happening to the Celtics.
January 7th, 2009 at 10:19 am
Great article Rock. I don’t think its time to panic, and if there is a silver lining to any of this, it’s that this team is learning to win with different player combinations on the court. However, I don’t think there is anything wrong with the Cavs. They are soaring high is rankings and stats, they are playing some of their best basketball since….well ever. I believe this is a slump, and I am honestly comfortable with it as long as it means several things. 1.)They get out of the slump; 2.)They get out of the slump better than they were before;3.)They win the Championship. That’s not too much to ask for right?
Joking aside, I am still really confident about this team….especially heading into Friday night against those little leprechauns from Beantown.
January 7th, 2009 at 10:24 am
The Celts losing last night to the Bobcats was doubly-good because it puts the Cavs on alert to bring their “A” game tonight and not look ahead to Friday.
January 7th, 2009 at 10:24 am
I agree CJG. I don’t mean to imply that I am overly worried. However, there are some really bad trends right now with the offense, and they all coincide with Z’s injury. That concerns more than a little. I just want to get Z back and to have him healthy for the playoffs.
You’re right that them learning to play without him is extremely valuable…..they just need to do a better job of learning!
January 7th, 2009 at 10:32 am
Will I get run out of this blog if I say that I would love for the Cavs to trade for Antawn Jamison with Wally’s expiring contract? I know he plays for the much-hated Wizards, but my beef has never been with Jamison. That guy plays hard, says the right things, is a good locker room presence, and puts up excellent scoring and rebounding numbers. He’s the guy I would most like the Cavs to take a run at with Wally’s expiring contract. I don’t know if Ferry would risk making a deal for a Wizard though…
January 7th, 2009 at 10:39 am
A) do people really hate the Wizards? Am I the only one who finds them to be completely insignificant?
B) I would LOVE to see Jamison in a Cavs uniform. I’m not sure he’s a good enough defender, but man oh man would he be a HUGE asset on offense. Besides, we’ve seen plenty of people become better defenders under Mike Brown’s system.
C) I’m pretty sure Wally would be able to negotiate a buyout with the Wizards as well, since the Wizards have no use for him. Well, unless they kept him just to spite the Cavaliers, which is possible.
January 7th, 2009 at 10:45 am
Only took one paragraph to use the word “adversity” – Rock, you’re starting to THINK like an athlete now. Hell, I overcame so much adversity today already – I had to walk to work in the rain.
Pat – I’d love Jamison on the Cavs. He’s the most consistent and hardest playing player on that team. Although he definitely doesn’t always “say the right things” – i.e. comparing Cavs/Wizards to UNC/Duke (which he took part in!!!).
January 7th, 2009 at 10:47 am
I guess it just depends on if LeBron or any of the other Cavs will have a problem getting along with Jamison, or if he will have a problem with any of the Cavs, but I don’t think that would be the case. I am pretty sure that other than DeShawn Stevenson, the rest of the Wizards are pretty business-like when it comes to playing the Cavs, and vice-versa. It’s true that Jamison isn’t a great defensive presence, but if you pair him up with Wallace or Varajao (never with Z unless you’re running offense-defense at the end of a game), I don’t think it’ll be an issue, and I agree that Mike Brown can get anyone in the league to defend.
January 7th, 2009 at 10:48 am
Does anyone else find it ironic that Donyell Marshall continues to haunt us?
January 7th, 2009 at 10:49 am
At least the Celtics are cold at the same time. If the Magic were smart, they’d be taking full advantage of this chance and leap frog over the Cavs and C’s. Has anybody heard on the latest on Joe Smith? I know Kristic is officially a Thunder now and that was one of the major roadblocks in a Joe Smith buyout. Joe Smith at least adds the threat of a shot from as deep as the top of the key maybe further. As much as i hated Drew Gooden’s lack of hustle at times he didn’t feel like playing, he gave the Cavs a shooter that could hit from almost anywhere inside the arc when Z wasn’t in the game.
Trade you say? With the recent rumors we’ve seen resulting in the Cavs having to throw in Wally AND Andy or JJ really don’t make me feel comfortable that the Cavs would get the ideal return they are looking for just yet. Sasha has been brilliant at times and he has possibly earned himself some interest from other teams but i don’t know the Cavs can really afford trading two guys that can come in and play those valuable minutes LeBron needs on the BENCH. Who would come in, in his place if Wally and Sasha were to be traded for a big man…Kinsey? Jawad Williams? I’m sorry, but thats not who i want on the court in crucial minutes.
My fix? Lets go play the free agent market. There are still some very good veterans that are available that we may have to wait until after the trade deadline to sign. I would love to be able to talk Robert Horry into playing for the Cavs in the stretch run. PJ Brown would be nice (payback is always nice). One guy that can ball (when motivated) and correct me if i’m wrong in his availablity is Antoine Walker. He gives a team an undersized (height wise) 4 that can shoot from almost anywhere on the court, including three balls.
Right now i’d just the boys some time to right the ship because the Celtics are going through the same thing and may just be making a desperate move if they do indeed sign Starbury once he is freed by the Knicks.
January 7th, 2009 at 11:24 am
excellent analysis. The most important task is managing Z’s injury and easing him back into peak shape so that the team is clicking on all cylinders in April as the playoffs loom.
January 7th, 2009 at 11:30 am
@ 9 – Donyell made some huge buckets in the playoffs when he was on the Cavaliers and was a great fourth big guy IMO. His close out game against the Nets was incredible. I always felt he was picked on too much.
Pj Brown is retired. He already stated that. Boston wanted him back and he said no.
Robert Horry can’t even move anymore.
Antione Walker, no thanks.
What’s wrong with the Cavaliers? They are only tied with the Lakers for the best record. (I do agree there are some bad trends with the offense)
January 7th, 2009 at 11:33 am
“Donyell made some huge buckets in the playoffs when he was on the Cavaliers and was a great fourth big guy IMO”
He got paid an awful lot of money per bucket, in that case…
January 7th, 2009 at 11:45 am
I think Jamison turned it on for the contact and will do a sharp decline. He tends to grow roots out on the 3-pt area, whereas I like our 4’s and 5’s playing closer to the hoop. I don’t like that… ties up lots of free money for us to do other things..
I’d be VERY surprised if Thunder buy-out Joe Smith. They are not as incompetent as some people perceive and have done a great job amassing draft picks. Shoot, we panicked and traded a #1 pick for Jiri Welsh (Worst. Trade. Ever), so the Thunder won’t be giving away Smith.
January 7th, 2009 at 12:03 pm
@bridgecrosser I’m not sure where you’re getting your information, but Jamison’s numbers this year are right in line with his career numbers. Also, I don’t think he tends to drift towards the 3-pt line because he’s averaging close to 10 rebounds the last couple of years with close to 3 offensive rebounds per game… that’s tough to do if you’re hanging around the 3-pt line.
@JJ I would argue that none of those scenarios you listed are very helpful to the Cavs. I’d rather see JJ Hickson get minutes instead of Brown, Horry, or Walker. Just wait a little bit… as teams realize they have no shot at the playoffs in 2009, they will lower their asking price. Ferry may have to give up a #1 pick along with that Wally contract, but I don’t mind that at all. The Cavs have two more years with LeBron to win the championship, so I’m okay with playing for now even if it might hurt our future a little.
January 7th, 2009 at 12:13 pm
what about brad miller? he has been playing well as of late and the kings have a glut of young big men who need minutes.
January 7th, 2009 at 12:16 pm
Adam – Sacramento’s asking price is a tad on the outrageous side.
http://www.waitingfornextyear.com/?p=5982
January 7th, 2009 at 12:37 pm
My point was mainly to avoid a panic and not trade two key guys in our rotation for someone who may not give us the greatest returns. A one year deal to a proven vet big man isn’t gonna hurt the Cavs at all except for maybe chemistry. But a proven vet often times gels right away, especially when you have a player like LeBron on the team.
January 7th, 2009 at 1:03 pm
I wouldn’t hit the panic button just yet. They’re not going to win them all, and sometimes, they’ll even lose to a 4-win team. losing 2 of 3 is not a big deal. Although, if we don’t take care of the Bobcates tonight, then I might start sweating. I absolutely agree with #3 Boomhauer. The ‘Cats knocked of the unfocused Celtics last night, so the Cavs best bring their A Game tonight, then focus on Friday. I hope the couple days off has helped them regroup and refocus.
January 7th, 2009 at 1:09 pm
4 years 20 million was the Donyell contract right? By NBA standards, that isn’t much.
January 7th, 2009 at 1:18 pm
I was just commenting that I don’t think Donyell ever haunted us. I just found that wording odd. Yeah he wasn’t the greatest player, but he was behind Z, Gooden, and Varejao in the Big Man rotation and was still winning playoff games for them. And his contract was obviously tradable.
The first series vs Washington. Close out game in Washington.
http://www.nba.com/games/20060505/CLEWAS/recap.html
Donyell Marshall scored 28 points, Flip Murray 21 and Anderson Varejao grabbed 10 rebounds as the Cavaliers captured their second road win in a playoff series for the first time in franchise history and improved to 1-4 all-time in Game Sixes.
“I wasn’t necessarily shooting the ball well up until this game and I wanted to get some easy buckets,” said Marshall, who shot 11-of-15 and grabbed eight rebounds. “My teammates were getting me the ball at the right spot at the right time. I was open and I was in rhythm and able to knock the shots down.
The close out game vs the Nets after losing Game 5 at home.
http://www.nba.com/games/20070518/CLENJN/boxscore.html
January 7th, 2009 at 1:27 pm
Game 6 in Washington…Wasn’t that the game Marshall actually went down in the point and got a lot of his looks? He wasn’t just standing in a corner and trying to hit a cold three off the bench.
January 7th, 2009 at 1:27 pm
edit: “down in the paint”
January 7th, 2009 at 1:38 pm
4 of 7 from three that game.
January 7th, 2009 at 2:00 pm
Z. That is all there is to it. He is extremely important to our offense.
January 7th, 2009 at 2:05 pm
The wiz just extended antwan jamisons contract 4 years and i doubt they would trade him. he is all they got right now! So if Brad Miller is out of the question, then what big guys could we get? I mean I would trade just about anybody to get Chris Bosh (he is unhappy in canada) or Amare Stoudamire (can you imagine?), but chances of a blockbuster depend on how teams are feeling at the deadline. I am not sure we can coax OKC into buying out Joe Smith, so our options are slim at signing a big man. Donyell Marshall is not an option haha
January 7th, 2009 at 2:21 pm
@Adam, they signed Jamison with the idea that they were ready to contend right now. Since then, they’ve fired their coach and the Wiz are one of the worst teams in the East. Not saying they will definitely look to trade Jamison, but if they decide it’s time to blow that core up, then they would absolutely look to move Jamison because it will be easier to trade him than Arenas.
January 7th, 2009 at 4:11 pm
@Nicko
4 of 7? Thats only 12 of 28 points and he only got 2 more of the points at the charity stripe. So thats 14 more points from the field. Without seeing a shot chart, i assume they were in the paint or within 10 feet of the hoop.
I ask about where he scored his points, because i remember commentators ranting and raving about how nice it was to see vintage Marshall. Him being down in the paint scrappin and how they didn’t think his knees had that left in them.
January 7th, 2009 at 4:23 pm
I hate the Wizards….and their fans.
January 7th, 2009 at 4:28 pm
Well, I suppose it’s different for those of you who live in Washington and have to listen to them obsess all day long about the Cavaliers.
January 7th, 2009 at 5:45 pm
I don’t hate the Wizards, i hate Gilbert Arenas and “You Can’t See Me Cuz I’m on the Bench All Game” Deshawn Stevenson (over did it, he plays, he just can’t hit shots when they need him to most). I respect Antawn’s game, C. Butler’s game, Etan Thomas’s game, and i actually thought Eddie Jordan was a darn good coach. If anything i think Cavs fans should be annoyed by the Wiz and their fans. Not hate. They definitely should hate us and the Cavs because who likes being eliminated by the same team every year?