Are the Browns in the Wrong for Lack of Information?
February 23, 2009Indians Spring Training: The Crowded OF Thins Out For WBC
February 23, 2009With Kevin Garnett’s injury and the return of Delonte West, the NBA world is abuzz with talk of Cleveland capturing the #1 seed over the next several weeks. Not so fast. Before we assume that home court is ours for the taking, let’s take a look at the schedules for both teams and see who has the edge.
First, let’s remind ourselves of the ‘target date’ for Garnett’s return. Reports are that he is going to miss two to three weeks, setting up a date of between March 9th and 16th. (Of course, if Garnett is feeling somewhat better after a week and a half, do you think he will want to sit out the meeting with Cleveland on March 6th?) Assuming those dates, who faces the tougher road- Cleveland or a KG-less Boston?
In sheer volume of games, the Cavaliers play eight in the next two weeks, 12 in the next three. Boston has a slightly lighter schedule, playing seven games before March 9th, and 10 before the 16th. At the end of the three week period, the Cavs and Boston will finally be even in games played, which will help with standings watching anyway. The Cavs have a one game lead in the loss column on the Celtics, so in a sense they have to win those two “extra” games to hold a one game lead on Boston for the best record in the conference. Advantage Celtics.
The winning percentage of the teams Boston will play for the next two weeks: .537 The percentage drops to .503 for the three week period. The Cavaliers play opponents with a .560 winning percentage over the next two weeks, however that number shrinks to .492 over the three week span. Advantage? Well, the Cavaliers play seven games against playoff bound (at the moment) teams. Boston plays six. Of course, the Cavs play all of those in the first two weeks. Push.
The Cavs will be on the road for eight of the next 12 games, while Boston will play half of their 10 games at home. Advantage Celtics. Even if they aren’t as dominant at home as they were last season.
Numbers are great, but let’s try the eyeball test. The Cavs will/could/should have tough games in Houston, San Antonio, Atlanta, Miami (plus the Heat in Cleveland) and Boston. Milwaukee at home won’t be entirely easy, but it’s still a game the Cavs should win. Expect wins against the Knicks and Memphis and in Sacramento, Phoenix (without Amare) and Clipperland. There are four sets of back to backs in there, which could easily lead to a unexpected loss. The good news, if there is any, about playing the Spurs right now is that they are a bit banged up themselves, and will probably be without Manu Ginobili for our game.
The Celtics (who do not have any back-to backs on tap by the way) will see tough contests in Denver, and against the Cavs and and Magic at home. They get the Pacers and Pistons at home- both of whom have won in Boston this season, but there is a question mark about the availability of Danny Granger for the Pacers, and the Pistons just look like a team that has thrown in the towel. New Jersey, Milwaukee and Miami on the road are the other tests. Advantage Boston.
So here’s my take. The Cavs certainly have an opportunity. If they play like they did Sunday night, they could go on one of those great runs and finish 11-1 for the stretch. If so the Celtics would have a hard time keeping up. Don’t forget though that this team still has Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo. They should still be favored in almost every game over the next three weeks. Here’s the key- the Cavs have to handle their business against Boston on March 6th. That game could be the difference in holding a one-game lead in the East opposed to a three game lead.
9 Comments
I would just like to say that if this whole race for home court comes down to ONE game, I was at the one game that made a difference. Celtics at Jazz. I was there when KG got hurt and Deron Williams put down filthy double crossovers on Ray Allen to put the game away. I DID THIS.
You’re all welcome.
I, for one, welcome our new IRB? overlord.
Also, where did the Indians post vanish to? I saw it up for a moment and then it was gone.
I see it at the top of the page
We’ve split the season series with Boston so far, no? We need to beat them, just in case we tie based on record.
I think regardless of record, or schedule, the Cavaliers have the toughest road to home court advantage. The Celtics are the defending champs, and know how to pull together when they need to. Cleveland teams have the knack of falling apart on our own, or due to injury, or some other reason. (see: Cleveland Curse) My hopes, and belief is that Cleveland will ultimately win home court, and go on to win the NBA Championship, but our road to get there is a lot more treachorous.
Rick, that’s a well-reasoned, sobering preview of the weeks ahead. I guess we should not get carried away in the thrill of watching this team destroy its opponents to the point where we assume its imminent ascendancy. Still, the one thing that could trump the analysis of relative difficulty of schedules is the intangible chemistry of the sort we witnessed against Detroit. Surely no one can say if it will carry through in the coming weeks with the necessary consistency to create distance between the Cavs and Celtics; but the winning formula has precedence (as in the 28 previous games in which Delonte played), and such an outcome would not shock anyone so much as to appear prodigious. You’re right, though: if it is in force during the meeting with Boston, fans and players alike will surely merit a spike in confidence.
@IRB? Are you feeling OK? Has your doctor spoken to you of “delusions of grandeur”? There are treatments out there. Take it easy.
Well, BOS won both games of a west coast back-to-back with last nights win against the Nugs
[…] three weeks ago, Rick penned a piece titled “Up for Grabs” that discussed the then near future of the Cavaliers and Celtics. Two teams that were not only combating injuries, but considerably […]