May 21, 2013

Carlos Santana’s Coming Out Party

Carlos-Santana1You probably won’t be surprised when I tell you who the best hitter in the American League has been so far this year.  1

(Oh.  You should probably read the last footnote if you care about how we’re defining “best hitter”.)

Anyway, the best hitter in the American League so far this season has been Miguel Cabrera, and if that surprises you then you should come over here so I can hit you in the nose with my ballpeen hammer.  For the last decade, Cabrera has enjoyed a sustained and consistent excellence that has only been bested  in my lifetime by Albert Pujols’ reign in St. Louis and the late-stage Barry Bonds.  2

[Read more...]

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  1. We’re going to define “best hitter” using a stat called Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+).  Basically, we’re park- and league-adjusting a player’s value, using linear weights.  If you like wOBA (and if you don’t you’re a communist), then you should love wRC+. [back]
  2. I know and you know that Barry Bonds took great big barrels full of steroids.  But let’s go way back in time here.  Let’s go all the way back to 1992, back when Barry Bonds looked more like Sammy Davis Jr. rather than Dwayne Johnson.  From 1992 to the end of his career, guess how many times Barry Bonds had an OPS below 1.000.  Go on, guess.

    Ready?

    Once, in 2006, when it was .999.  One year out of 16, and it was still excellent.  A .999 OPS would currently be good for 10th place in all of baseball—and that’s the worst year of Bond’s 16-year stretch. That guy was freaking amazing. [back]

Indians 1, Athletics 0: Zach Attack, We’ll Be Friends Forever

zach attack7:33 PM – A bit late getting started here, but luckily we haven’t missed much. Through two innings, both Zach McAllister and Tommy Milone are perfect.

7:35 PM – Oh look. Mike Aviles is playing left field tonight. That’s weird.

I remember thinking when they traded for Aviles that it was all but certain that Asdrubal would be traded and that Aviles would become our starting short stop. That obviously would’ve downgraded our infield: even if you think Cabrera isn’t a great fielder it’s pretty evident he’s a much better hitter than Aviles.

But I remember thinking to myself, Hey self: we could really use some starting pitching on this team, and if trading your starting SS with two years left on a contract that isn’t necessarily cheap would give us a real #2 starter or a young SP stud to dream on I’d probably do it. It’s not like our system lacks for impact SS prospects and it’s also not like Asdrubal is likely to stay in Cleveland beyond 2014 and it’s also not like we have any better trade chips right now and it’s also not like some of the bigger payroll teams don’t have gaping holes at SS right now.

[Read more...]

MLB Video: Mark Reynolds Destroys Baseball, Spits, Stares, is Cool(est)

Last night Mark Reynolds got hit near the head by a Jarrod Parker pitch in the first inning.  It didn’t make him happy, so he did this to a baseball later in the evening:

Reynolds called the home run (and we can assume the subsequent stare down and bat flip) the “coolest thing I’ve ever done.”

Oh inDEED.

Mark Reynolds and His Missing Strikeouts

reynoldsslamThere were not many sure things coming out of this off-season.  Maybe Michael Bourn would age gracefully or maybe he’d become Juan Pierre.  Maybe Justin Masterson would wrangle some control and be a front-end option or maybe he’d fall apart with his ongoing struggles against left handed batters.  Maybe Jason Kipnis would take the next step to developing into a power-speed second baseman or maybe he’d languish with a sub-.720 OPS for two straight years, reminding us all of that Josh Barfield jersey we burned last decade.

But one thing we were all sure of: Mark Reynolds would strike out.  A LOT.

Among players with more than 1,500 plate appearances, Mark Reynolds led the known universe in strikeout percentage from 2009-2012, managing to K in nearly 33% of his plate appearances.  Over that four year span, he struck out 790 times in just over 2400 plate appearances—averaging just a hair under 200 Ks per season.  The only other player to strikeout in more than 30% of his appearances was Adam Dunn, who could at least make up for his whiffs with a remarkably patient batting eye (15.2% BB-rate, compared to 12.7% for Reynolds). [Read more...]

MLB News: Still No Timetable for Michael Bourn’s Return

Lost in the shuffle of the Indians’ offensive prowess over the last few games is that they’ve been doing it without their table-setter and $48 million man, Michael Bourn.

Bourn suffered a lacerated finger after being unceremoniously trampled on by White Sox reliever nearly three weeks ago.  After hitting the DL and eventually having his stitched removed last week, Bourn is evidently still not ready and there is no timetable for his eventual return.  According to Jordan Bastian, he has not yet been cleared to take batting practice either.

Drew Stubbs has been manning CF in Bourn’s stead, and has a .253/.315/..361 line.  That’s not great, but so long as the middle of the lineup hits like they have been, no one’s going to notice much.

Indians 3, White Sox 2: Where there’s a Bro, there’s a Way

Swisher and Giambi8:01 PM – I just learned that today is Terry Francona’s birthday. Hours before, I heard that it’s also Jack Nicholson’s birthday. What a small world!  I can only imagine the fun those two might have at a birthday party together, what with all of the chewing tobacco and nubile feminine attention.  Sounds like a good time.  You know what else sounds like a good time?  Live blog recap!  That’s what.

8:45 PM – Speaking of young ladies, my four month old daughter has occupied the last 44 minutes of this recap, giving me a look of suspicion that I can only interpret as: I know that you have no milk, Dad. And I’m going to hold that against you until I’m thirty-seven.

In the midst of my insufficient parenting/lactating, the Indians managed to scratch across a run in the top of the second on a flare off Lonnie Chisenhall’s bat that scored Jason Giambi from second.  The White Sox followed suit in the bottom of the second with a leadoff HR from Conor Gillaspie, who is not, as I assumed, a fictional pub owner from James Joyce’s Dubliners, but a real-live Chicago White Sock with a uniform and everything.

After 2 innings, it’s 1-1 and I’m still getting back in the saddle. [Read more...]

Turning the Masty Corner?

Justin MatsersonI am sort of obsessed with Justin Masterson.

Every year, whether he has a difficult April (like last year) or a fabulous one (like 2011) I find myself poring over his stat line to see if anything remarkable has changed.  More often than not, I end up concluding the same thing each year: he’s a good pitcher who—as most non-strikeout pitchers do—relies heavily on the random distribution of his batted balls.  The things he can control—like strikeouts, walks, and to some degree home runs—suggest that he’s a completely competent starting pitcher.  Not one who you’d necessarily call an “ace”, but not someone who belongs in the bullpen as so many people preached back in his miserable 2010 campaign.

And now that he’s off to another great start (3-0, 0.41 ERA), I figured I’d check again, just to see if anything looks a bit different over these first 22 innings of 2012. [Read more...]

Setting the Lines on the 2013 Indians

Nick SwisherIt’s almost here, you guys.  One more day.  But before each new Indians season starts, I like to indulge my crippling gambling addiction by setting fake lines for the Tribe and then wagering fake money on one side or the other.  Last season, I broke about even, but much like the team itself, I think this year will be different. TD will have a more organized set of predictions tomorrow from the whole gang, but for now, let’s make some fake prop bets.

169.5 Team Home Runs – Believe it or not, hitting 170 home runs would likely still result in a below average performance in the American League.  Last season, eight of the 14 AL teams hit at least 175 HRs, led by the Yankees with 245.  The issue, of course, is that the Indians were woefully under-resourced from a power perspective last season, launching only 136 long balls as a group—with 28 of those coming from players who are no longer on the roster, in Shin-Soo Choo (16) and Travis Hafner (12).   After losing those two, is it reasonable to think the Indians will boost their home run total year-over-year by 40? [Read more...]

Four Stat-Lines to Watch on the 2013 Indians

Lonnie ChisenhallI’ll get to some actual predictions later this week, but today I thought I’d share with you some stat-lines I’ll be paying extra close attention throughout this year.  Think of these as “leading indicators” for how successful each player’s season might be.

Michael Brantley’s On-Base Percentage – Given that he’s been in Cleveland since 2009, it’s pretty easy to forget that Michael Brantley is still fairly young.  Younger than Jason Kipnis and Carlos Santana and Justin Masterson.  In fact, the only position player expected to see any regular playing time who’s younger than Brantley is Lonnie Who Loved Baseball, who can barely grow an awesome handlebar mustache.  I guess I just want to point out that any criticisms of Brantley need to be tempered by his obvious though easily forgotten youth.

On the other hand, he’s not twelve.  Michael Brantley will turn 26 in May, and it’s time for him to demonstrate the OBP skill that made him such a valuable prospect in the first place.  For his minor league career, Brantley had a .388 OBP across nearly 2,500 plate appearances.  So far in the Big Leagues, he’s at only .329.  For reference, in 2012 .388 would’ve placed Brantley fifth in the AL in OBP, behind Miguel Cabrera; .329, on the other hand, is right around league average.  Of course, it’s harder to get on base in the Show than it is in the Minors, but if Brantley isn’t going to hit for power (career SLG% .376) or contribute strong defense at a position of need (adequate defensive LFers grow on trees), then he’s going to have to get better at not making outs.  Or he’ll be out of a job. [Read more...]

MLB News: Asdrubal Cabrera Scratched from Lineup with Back Injury

According to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer, Asdrubal Cabrera injured a muscle in his back in the batting cage this morning and was subsequently scratched from the lineup for Sunday afternoon’s game against the Chicago Cubs.  Manager Terry Francona indicated that Cabrera would be out of the lineup both Sunday and Monday, but given that back injuries often linger, there obviously is no guarantee the injury will be healed by then.

Cabrera’s injury evidently threw a wrench into Francona’s plan to debut his Opening Day roster this afternoon against the Cubs. Mike Aviles will replace Cabrera, resulting in the following lineup:

Bourn (8)
Cabrera Aviles (6)
Kipnis (4)
Swisher (3)
Brantley (7)
Santana (2)
Reynolds (DH)
Chisenhall (5)
Stubbs (9)

Jimenez (1)

The Ubaldo Problem

Ubaldo JimenezThe Indians currently have at least nine starting pitching candidates for their rotation, depending on how and whom you count.  There are the three guys pretty much guaranteed a solid rotation spot out of the gate, in Masterson, Jimenez and Myers.  There are the two at the back-end who have considerable chance of being bounced around as the season develops in McAllister and Kazmir.  And then there are at least four more guys who could be in the picture this year in some fashion, depending on need and injury, in Carrasco, Bauer, Matzusaka, and Kluber.  1

I’m not sure how exactly this compares to other teams or across other years, but to me, this feels like more starting pitching depth than we’ve had going into any season I can remember.  All nine of those guys have started games in the Major Leagues, so it’s not like I’m reaching deep into the depths of the farm system to come up with names.  We have quite a few arms to mix and match throughout the year, and that’s never a bad thing.  There will be injuries and sub-par performances that will have to be negotiated, and it’s always better to have more options than fewer. [Read more...]

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  1. I’m not counting David Huff or Josh Tomlin for obvious reasons, but I guess in a sense they’re part of this depth too. [back]

On Scott Kazmir and My Impending Middle Age

Scott KazmirFor the last several years the Indians have sported one of the youngest teams in the Major Leagues. 1   This youth-movement was more effect than cause; trading off a team’s major league assets in the hopes of rebuilding necessarily results in a young Major League roster.  Couple that with an almost ritualistic (and rational—considering their place on the win-curve) aversion to dabbling in the free agency market, and the Indians played with a day-in, day-out roster that wouldn’t be winning any inter-squad beard-growing competitions, if you get my drift.

Perhaps it is in my nature to be carried along by circumstance, but I often found myself heralding younger players throughout this period—defending them from imaginary criticisms lobbed by no one in particular.  Younger players are more exciting than those old, broken down free agents, dontcha know?  They generate more wins for less money than anyone!  And did I mention the prospects?  MY GOD THE PROSPECTS!! How lucky we all are to live in this Land O’ Cleve, and witness the youngest and most exciting team around! [Read more...]

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  1. Averaging baseball-reference’s BatAge and PitchAge—an admittedly crude estimate—suggests that since the beginning of the 2008 season, only three teams have been younger: the Oakland A’s, the Kansas City Royals, and the Florida South Beach Marlins of Miami.  I’ll put the full table beneath this article for your enjoyment, because, well, I like you, man. [back]

Indians Outfield Defense: How Improved Will It Be?

Michael BournI’m going to be honest with you: I have my misgivings about advanced defensive metrics—especially those that are publicly available to schmoes like you and me.  1   It’s not that I think the methodology behind these stats is flawed or that the approach itself is a silly one—it’s just that all these metrics seem a bit too reliant on two somewhat flimsy inputs.

First, there is the simple problem of sample size: it is unlikely that a single player will accrue enough defensive opportunities on different sorts of batted balls in a given year to give us a realistic impression of what his actual skills are.  It’s been said that you need three years of defensive data—I assume playing almost every day—to make up for this paucity.  [Read more...]

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  1. Craig just got back from the Sloan Analytics Conference, and I’m dying to talk to him about it.  One item I’m hoping to discuss is the movement toward proprietary, team-housed analytics, especially in regard to defensive valuations in baseball.  This is where it’s going, methinks.  There was a decade or so where the schmoes were outsmarting the teams, but I’m pretty sure that’s over now.  They’ve bought out the geniuses and their IP, and moved it behind closed doors.  The “Moneyball Era” was exciting.  But let’s face it: it’s over. [back]

2013 Tribe Optimism and Rainy Day Parades

FranconaI was listening to Craig and Scott on the podcast the other night, and I heard Craig say something about how projecting a player’s performance in any given year seems, to him, a fool’s errand.  He argued that there’s just so much that we don’t know about baseball teams—too many moving parts—and all that stuff we don’t know a lot about can count toward winning games just as much as a player’s prior year wOBA or his ERA or the cut of his jib.  There’s stuff, he said, about team chemistry or lineup protection or the euphoria of playing for a good manager or the simple effects of hope that can help a team win games, and projection systems just can’t (or don’t) account for any of this.

And far be it from me to bash hope.  I like hope.  I’m down with hope.  It’s the new opiate of the masses, and as someone who’s had several minor surgeries in his life, I can assure you that opiates are AWESOME. [Read more...]

Miguel Montero on Trevor Bauer: “Good Luck to Carlos Santana”

It’s not news that the Indians were able to pry Trevor Bauer from the Diamondbacks due to some personality conflicts in the clubhouse—especially between Bauer and his battery-mate Miguel Montero.  Evidently Bauer chose not to partake in the tutelage proffered by Montero, and this rubbed the veteran backstop the wrong way.

Montero, wanting to make sure this was still a story, reiterated his concerns about Bauer at the Diamondbacks’ FanFest event on Saturday:

When you get a guy like that and he thinks he’s got everything figured out, it’s just tough to commence and try to get on the same page with you.

-snip-

Since day one in Spring Training I caught him and he killed me because he threw about 100 pitches the first day.

-snip-

[T]he next time he threw I saw him doing the same thing.  He never wanted to listen […] Good luck to Carlos Santana.

Also, BREAKING: SOMETIMES 21 YEAR OLD KIDS ARE HEADSTRONG AND EGOMANIACAL.

Carry on.  Soon enough there will be Spring Training games to overreact to.  Can’t hardly wait.

MLB Player Dashboard: 2008-2012

Yesterday I tweeted out a mercurial link about my “nerd-project”, but today I wanted to share it with you all more formally.

Before that, a warning: this has almost nothing to do with Cleveland Sports, so turn back now if that’s the particular tunnel you like looking though.

WAR Dashboard

Basically, this thing started when I was writing a piece a few weeks back.  I got tired of looking up stats on several different sites to get all the data I wanted.  More often than not, I was toggling between a player’s Baseball-Reference page and his corresponding Fangraphs page.  Sometimes, I was even averaging the two sites’ similar (though slightly different) version of wins above replacement (WAR) to get a fuller picture of the player’s value.  This became tiresome.

So I decided to create a tool that would average the two versions of WAR for me.  [Read more...]

The Case for a Designated Hitter. Yes, That Designated Hitter

Travis HafnerFrom what I can tell, there seem to be two fairly entrenched camps that have sprung up regarding the Indians’ approach to the designated hitter spot this season.

The first group seems to be arguing that the team might be better off without a full-time DH.  The thinking here goes that a designated designated hitter makes the team less adaptable; it would hamstring Terry Francona’s ability mix and match lineups by taking one spot off the table.  It would also take up a valuable roster spot that could more aptly be filled by a player with some versatility.  Travis Hafner’s onerous contract and awful performance are cited heavily in this camp, who would basically prefer to see Mike Aviles in some capacity almost every day—filling in around the diamond at various positions while allowing the regulars to slot in at DH or occasionally take the day off entirely.

The second group wants a DH.  [Read more...]

The Folly of the Chris Perez Deal

Chris PerezOn one of the first podcasts that I did with Craig I was trying to explain why I thought the Indians simply had to trade Chris Perez before the 2013 season started.

“You DO NOT spend one-tenth of your payroll on a pitcher who might throw 60 innings,” I argued.  “If we keep Perez, there is a chance he will be our highest paid player.  There is just no reason to allow that to happen, especially when rich teams habitually overpay for closers in trades and on the free agent market.  We can free up that money to spend elsewhere AND add talent to the roster from the trade.  This is a no-brainer.”

And that’s when Craig supplied me with a metaphor: “Jon, you’re a homeowner now. 1   You’re saying it would be like splurging on a $50,000 basement renovation in a $100,000 house?  It’s just not worth it?”

[Read more...]

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  1. This is, technically speaking, unture.  My wife and I decided last night that the bank owns the home, and I have thus far managed to purchase the first floor powder room from them. [back]

How Improved are the 2013 Indians?

Lonnie-Chisenhall-200x300It seems like it’s been awhile since I really nerded out with a stats post. But if winters are good for anything, it’s spreadsheets and pivot tables and hastily drawn Jonclusions regarding the Indians.

Let me start by saying this clearly: I’ve been pleasantly surprised with the Indians’ off-season. Not only have they been able to add some good players—via both trade and free agency—but they’ve also managed to buy back some PR points with the fanbase. Bringing Terry Francona on was clearly a coup. Capturing a hot prospect like Trevor Bauer caused some excitement. Signing Nick Swisher to the largest free agent deal in club history sent a message that apparently needed to be sent: the club was NOT rebuilding. They were pushing forward in an attempt to win now.

And I think as fans we can all certainly feel happy about that decision. It’s nice to be reassured that your ownership and front office take winning as seriously as you do as a fan. One of the things that Craig was demanding of the new Browns’ regime was that they announce their intentions to contend immediately. Patience is a virtue, but one taken best in limited serving sizes. The Indians front office and ownership appeared to have learned their lesson. Either that, or they just didn’t have the chutzpah to blow it all up again and ask for five more years.

[Read more...]

MLB News: Jeanmar Gomez traded to Pirates for Quincy Latimore

Last week the Indians designated Jeanmar Gomez for assignment to clear a roster space for one of their shiny new free agent additions.  Today, as Keith Law reported, the club traded Gomez to Pittsburgh for minor league outfielder Quincy Latimore.

Since breaking into the Big Leagues in 2010, Gomez has thrown 206.2 innings for the Indians with a career record of 14-16 and 5.18 ERA.  While never a strikeout pitcher (he had the seventh lowest K% in the AL last season among pitchers with at least 80 IP), the 24 year old Gomez may be able to find success in the NL, where his groundballing ways (career GB% of 49.2%) could play a bit better in the back end of a rotation.

Of course, around these parts, Gomez will always be best remembered for the perfect game he tossed for the Double-A Aeros against the Trenton Thunder in May 2009.  The best laid plans of Aeros and Thunder….

Latimore is a soon-to-be 24 year old former 4th round draft pick who has never progressed beyond Double-A in the Pirates organization.  Last season, over 126 games for the Altoona Curve, Latimore bat .251/.321/.433 (.754 OPS) with 10 stolen bases.  He has demonstrated some skill for hitting LHP, posting an .840 OPS against southpaws in his two Double-A seasons with Altoona, and his OBP-AVG split would suggest a degree of patience at the plate, but his overall skill-set would fall somewhere between “nebulous” and “dubious”  on a Big League prospect scale.

Gomez likely would have struggled to make the Indians’ rotation out of spring training considering the recent additions of Trevor Bauer, Brett Myers, and Scott Kazmir, and the consequent roster crunch likely cost him his spot.  The trade at least (and probably at most) brings an organizational player to the Indians and prevented the club from getting nothing in return for clearing Gomez from the roster.