8:01 PM – I just learned that today is Terry Francona’s birthday. Hours before, I heard that it’s also Jack Nicholson’s birthday. What a small world!  I can only imagine the fun those two might have at a birthday party together, what with all of the chewing tobacco and nubile feminine attention.  Sounds like a good time.  You know what else sounds like a good time?  Live blog recap!  That’s what.

8:45 PM – Speaking of young ladies, my four month old daughter has occupied the last 44 minutes of this recap, giving me a look of suspicion that I can only interpret as: I know that you have no milk, Dad. And I’m going to hold that against you until I’m thirty-seven.

In the midst of my insufficient parenting/lactating, the Indians managed to scratch across a run in the top of the second on a flare off Lonnie Chisenhall’s bat that scored Jason Giambi from second.  The White Sox followed suit in the bottom of the second with a leadoff HR from Conor Gillaspie, who is not, as I assumed, a fictional pub owner from James Joyce’s Dubliners, but a real-live Chicago White Sock with a uniform and everything.

After 2 innings, it’s 1-1 and I’m still getting back in the saddle. [Read more...]

It’s almost here, you guys.  One more day.  But before each new Indians season starts, I like to indulge my crippling gambling addiction by setting fake lines for the Tribe and then wagering fake money on one side or the other.  Last season, I broke about even, but much like the team itself, I think this year will be different. TD will have a more organized set of predictions tomorrow from the whole gang, but for now, let’s make some fake prop bets.

169.5 Team Home Runs – Believe it or not, hitting 170 home runs would likely still result in a below average performance in the American League.  Last season, eight of the 14 AL teams hit at least 175 HRs, led by the Yankees with 245.  The issue, of course, is that the Indians were woefully under-resourced from a power perspective last season, launching only 136 long balls as a group—with 28 of those coming from players who are no longer on the roster, in Shin-Soo Choo (16) and Travis Hafner (12).   After losing those two, is it reasonable to think the Indians will boost their home run total year-over-year by 40? [Read more...]

I’ll get to some actual predictions later this week, but today I thought I’d share with you some stat-lines I’ll be paying extra close attention throughout this year.  Think of these as “leading indicators” for how successful each player’s season might be.

Michael Brantley’s On-Base Percentage – Given that he’s been in Cleveland since 2009, it’s pretty easy to forget that Michael Brantley is still fairly young.  Younger than Jason Kipnis and Carlos Santana and Justin Masterson.  In fact, the only position player expected to see any regular playing time who’s younger than Brantley is Lonnie Who Loved Baseball, who can barely grow an awesome handlebar mustache.  I guess I just want to point out that any criticisms of Brantley need to be tempered by his obvious though easily forgotten youth.

On the other hand, he’s not twelve.  Michael Brantley will turn 26 in May, and it’s time for him to demonstrate the OBP skill that made him such a valuable prospect in the first place.  For his minor league career, Brantley had a .388 OBP across nearly 2,500 plate appearances.  So far in the Big Leagues, he’s at only .329.  For reference, in 2012 .388 would’ve placed Brantley fifth in the AL in OBP, behind Miguel Cabrera; .329, on the other hand, is right around league average.  Of course, it’s harder to get on base in the Show than it is in the Minors, but if Brantley isn’t going to hit for power (career SLG% .376) or contribute strong defense at a position of need (adequate defensive LFers grow on trees), then he’s going to have to get better at not making outs.  Or he’ll be out of a job. [Read more...]

For the last several years the Indians have sported one of the youngest teams in the Major Leagues. ¹   This youth-movement was more effect than cause; trading off a team’s major league assets in the hopes of rebuilding necessarily results in a young Major League roster.  Couple that with an almost ritualistic (and rational—considering their place on the win-curve) aversion to dabbling in the free agency market, and the Indians played with a day-in, day-out roster that wouldn’t be winning any inter-squad beard-growing competitions, if you get my drift.

Perhaps it is in my nature to be carried along by circumstance, but I often found myself heralding younger players throughout this period—defending them from imaginary criticisms lobbed by no one in particular.  Younger players are more exciting than those old, broken down free agents, dontcha know?  They generate more wins for less money than anyone!  And did I mention the prospects?  MY GOD THE PROSPECTS!! How lucky we all are to live in this Land O’ Cleve, and witness the youngest and most exciting team around! [Read more...]

___________________________________

1. Averaging baseball-reference’s BatAge and PitchAge—an admittedly crude estimate—suggests that since the beginning of the 2008 season, only three teams have been younger: the Oakland A’s, the Kansas City Royals, and the Florida South Beach Marlins of Miami.  I’ll put the full table beneath this article for your enjoyment, because, well, I like you, man. [back]

I was listening to Craig and Scott on the podcast the other night, and I heard Craig say something about how projecting a player’s performance in any given year seems, to him, a fool’s errand.  He argued that there’s just so much that we don’t know about baseball teams—too many moving parts—and all that stuff we don’t know a lot about can count toward winning games just as much as a player’s prior year wOBA or his ERA or the cut of his jib.  There’s stuff, he said, about team chemistry or lineup protection or the euphoria of playing for a good manager or the simple effects of hope that can help a team win games, and projection systems just can’t (or don’t) account for any of this.

And far be it from me to bash hope.  I like hope.  I’m down with hope.  It’s the new opiate of the masses, and as someone who’s had several minor surgeries in his life, I can assure you that opiates are AWESOME. [Read more...]

From what I can tell, there seem to be two fairly entrenched camps that have sprung up regarding the Indians’ approach to the designated hitter spot this season.

The first group seems to be arguing that the team might be better off without a full-time DH.  The thinking here goes that a designated designated hitter makes the team less adaptable; it would hamstring Terry Francona’s ability mix and match lineups by taking one spot off the table.  It would also take up a valuable roster spot that could more aptly be filled by a player with some versatility.  Travis Hafner’s onerous contract and awful performance are cited heavily in this camp, who would basically prefer to see Mike Aviles in some capacity almost every day—filling in around the diamond at various positions while allowing the regulars to slot in at DH or occasionally take the day off entirely.

The second group wants a DH.  [Read more...]

It seems like it’s been awhile since I really nerded out with a stats post. But if winters are good for anything, it’s spreadsheets and pivot tables and hastily drawn Jonclusions regarding the Indians.

Let me start by saying this clearly: I’ve been pleasantly surprised with the Indians’ off-season. Not only have they been able to add some good players—via both trade and free agency—but they’ve also managed to buy back some PR points with the fanbase. Bringing Terry Francona on was clearly a coup. Capturing a hot prospect like Trevor Bauer caused some excitement. Signing Nick Swisher to the largest free agent deal in club history sent a message that apparently needed to be sent: the club was NOT rebuilding. They were pushing forward in an attempt to win now.

And I think as fans we can all certainly feel happy about that decision. It’s nice to be reassured that your ownership and front office take winning as seriously as you do as a fan. One of the things that Craig was demanding of the new Browns’ regime was that they announce their intentions to contend immediately. Patience is a virtue, but one taken best in limited serving sizes. The Indians front office and ownership appeared to have learned their lesson. Either that, or they just didn’t have the chutzpah to blow it all up again and ask for five more years.

[Read more...]