June 19, 2013

WFNY Stats & Info: Lonnie Chisenhall’s hot streak

June 12, 2013 by 16 Comments

Although the Cleveland Indians finally snapped their eight-game losing streak on Tuesday, many already have been calling for the return of Lonnie Baseball.

The team’s first-round pick in 2008, Chisenhall has been tearing up Triple-A pitching in the past three weeks. Dating back to May 18th, he has the best OPS among qualified full-season minor league players. Here is the entire top 10:

lonnie chisenhallChisenhall remains only 24 years old. He’s notably struggled defensively during this 19-game stretch, committing 7 errors at third base. But the offense has been extraordinary, even admittedly in a very small sample size.

In his 135-game MLB career, Chisenhall is batting .250/.286/.406. Those numbers were down across the board in 2013, despite being handed the starting position at third base. Most concerning for the Indians staff, he had 22 strikeouts against just 3 walks in 99 plate appearances. That was one of the specific items they mentioned upon his demotion on May 13th.

How is he doing thus far in Columbus? He has only 18 strikeouts along with an improved 11 walks in 110 plate appearances. Not anything exceptional, but certainly better.

Yet, it’s worth noting that Lonnie Baseball has never produced these dynamite numbers at any level before. His best full season in the minor leagues likely was in 2009 with High-A Kinston when he batted .276/.346/.492 with 18 homers and 79 RBI in 99 games.

Is he simply a AAAA player having a long stroke of good luck back against easier pitching? Perhaps, and he’s never going to be the most patient hitter in the world. The defense also is awful, but that’s not what he was sent down to Columbus to focus on. With the way his bat is performing, maybe it’s time for his return up I-71 to Cleveland.

[Related: The Diff: Update on top Cleveland Indians prospects]

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WFNY Stats & Info: Indians’ struggles against Yankees

June 5, 2013 by 6 Comments

As today’s game looks woeful at the start, I felt it was appropriate to look into the Cleveland Indians’ recent record against the New York Yankees. Heck, TD practically begged me to do this research with his recap this morning.

So here are the results over the last 20 regular seasons since 1994, the opening of Jacobs Field, through yesterday:

57-111 (.329) record for Cleveland
4.67-5.90 (-1.23) average margin of victory

Notably, the pitching has been the main culprit, posting a 5.68 ERA in these 168 matchups. C.C. Sabathia was 1-8 with a 6.16 ERA with the Indians against the Yanks; but now is 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA (entering today) against his former team. With the Indians against New York, Dennis Martinez had a 6.11 ERA, Roberto Hernandez (nee Fausto Carmona) had a 7.02 ERA and Jaret Wright was at 6.18.

On the offensive side, Cleveland shortstops have oddly seemed to struggle against New York pitching. Omar Vizquel posted a .665 OPS (compared to .688 for his career) in his 402 PAs with Cleveland against the Yankees. Asdrubal Cabrera’s split of .684 OPS (vs. .756 career) isn’t that attractive either. Albert Belle was the noted Yankee-killer, with 11 doubles, 11 homers and a 1.186 in 31 games with the Tribe against the team.

Here is the record by season:
1994: 0-9 (.000)
1995: 6-6 (.500)
1996: 3-9 (.250)
1997: 5-6 (.454)
1998: 4-7 (.364)
1999: 3-7 (.300)
2000: 5-5 (.500)
2001: 4-5 (.444)
2002: 3-6 (.333)
2003: 2-5 (.286)
2004: 2-4 (.333)
2005: 3-4 (.429)
2006: 3-4 (.429)
2007: 0-6 (.000)
2008: 4-3 (.571)
2009: 3-5 (.375)
2010: 2-6 (.250)
2011: 3-4 (.429)
2012: 1-5 (.167)
2013: 1-5 (.167)

[Related: The Diff: Update on top Cleveland Indians prospects]

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WFNY Stats & Info: Looking at the Indians’ quality starts

June 4, 2013 by 5 Comments

Back at the start of the season, I wrote a long-form edition of The Diff about quality starts and the Cleveland Indians pitching. Mostly, it was an excuse to lament about how awful the Tribe’s starting pitching was en route to the 68-94 season in 2012.

Thus, now that we’re just over the 1/3rd mark of the back-and-forth 2013 season, I felt it was appropriate to update the statistics and see how things are going. A conversation with Jon today on Twitter led me to posting the chart over there:

Here are some main observations that I have, with relation to the 2012 numbers:

1) First, it’s notable that the Indians currently rank 10th in the AL in quality start percentage and 14th in bullpen ERA. Those are two facts of life right now. Difficult to swallow, but facts nonetheless.

2) Because the Indians rank fifth in the AL in runs per game, they’ve done quite well thus far at converting quality starts to wins. In fact, they rank second in the AL in that category with a .789 winning percentage in quality starts 1 .

3) Then, compounded by the bullpen issues, the Indians have struggled when the starters can’t deliver a quality start. Their .276 winning percentage in non-quality starts ranks 11th in the league.

4) Overall, what stands out to me 2 is that the Cleveland Indians are what we thought they would be. The offense has been solidly above average and the pitching has been a question mark still. The pitching has improved overall, especially the starting rotation, and the Indians have improved (albeit slightly) on their ridiculously awful, league-worst non-quality start winning percentage from a season ago (it was .169).

5) Going forward, of course, all of the AL team averages will squish together as we have a larger and larger sample size. But the observations about Cleveland are clear: The team’s bullpen is a big problem, while the offense has the capability to carry the team whenever the starting rotation gets its job done.

[Related: Asdrubal injured; Masterson roughed up in 7-4 loss in New York]

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  1. Oddly enough, Boston-Oakland-Cleveland, the top three teams in pitches per plate appearance, lead the AL (in a slightly different order) in this category. Maybe there’s something even more to be said for extra, extra patience? [back]
  2. besides Seattle’s abysmal 2-23 record in non-quality starts, Chicago’s by far league-worst offense, poor Toronto’s early struggles and the flukey start for the LA Angels [back]

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WFNY Stats & Info: 2007 Cavs and 2013 Heat

June 3, 2013 by 35 Comments

Disclaimer: Let’s not bicker over LeBron James here. I’m not one for conspiracy theories and I also despise how so many national articles about Cleveland sports have to include a mention of his name. That being said. …

Sunday afternoon, while bored at home, I posted the following spreadsheet screen-shot on Twitter. It looks at the Eastern Conference Final averages through 6 games for the top 10 players for the 2007 Cleveland Cavaliers and the 2013 Miami Heat.

Below the chart, I’ll share some observations and statistical analysis of what it says to me.

1) In a nutshell: Dwyane Wade has been mediocre, Chris Bosh has been quite bad and Ray Allen hasn’t been able to shoot at all in this series so far. Combined, these three players have made 27 All-Star games and had 310 playoff game appearances heading into this series. It’s very unexpected how poor they have performed so far.

2) Three non-LeBron James players on the 2007 Cavaliers averaged 5+ rebounds per game during the ECF series (Ilgauskas, Varejao, Gooden). The highest non-LeBron rebounder for Miami in this series: Chris Anderson at 4.6 per game (in five contests), then Wade at 4.5. That’s a huge difference.

3) The Indiana Pacers deserve a ton of credit. When comparing their team statistics to Detroit’s from 2007 1 , you realize just how dominant this Indiana team has been all season. They’ve been even more impressive — especially when the starting five is intact – in this series and yet they’re only tied 3-3 with game seven now on the road.

4) It’s easy to forget just how good Daniel Gibson was in that 2007 series against Detroit. Combined, Boobie and Z were a better two-man complementary duo than Wade and anyone else has been for Miami this series. Yet, the rest of Miami’s squad — Chalmers, Anderson, Haslem — has been slightly better than Cleveland’s in the apples-to-apples comparison.

5) Let’s then not forget that this Miami Heat team was 45-3 in their last 48 games entering this series, winning games by an average margin of 102.5-91.5 (+11.0). They were one of the best teams ever during the regular season. But, they’ve looked very beatable through these 6 games. And now, they still can easily win tonight back at home.

Share some of your favorite observations from the chart down in the comments below. And please, keep in civil in the comments when it comes to LeBron James talk.

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  1. 2013 Indiana: No. 1 at DRtg at 99.8, No. 1 at opponent efg% at 45.3%, No. 1 at rebounding at 45.3 per game. 2007 Detroit: No. 7 at DRtg at 104.2, No. 4 at opponent efg% at 47.7%, No. 18 at rebounding at 40.5 per game. [back]

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WFNY Stats & Info: Ubaldo Jimenez’s best starts with Indians

June 2, 2013 by 1 Comment

The star of the show on Saturday afternoon for the Tribe was starter Ubaldo Jimenez. Just 10 hours after the odd finish to Friday night’s rain-delayed marathon, Jimenez provided an outstanding performance in the 5-0 Cleveland victory.

Overall, Jimenez has been nearly an entirely different pitcher over the last several weeks. Let’s go inside the numbers to see when the change occurred and the notable changes:

First 46 starts with Indians — 13-23, 5.63 ERA, 7.6 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, 59.1% strikes, .269 AVG
Last 7 starts since 4/29/13 — 4-1, 2.74 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 63.4% strikes, .212 AVG

In that 46-start stretch, Jimenez was one of the worst pitchers in baseball. His strikeout numbers were decent, but he was walking far too many batters and giving up way too many hits. In these last seven outings dating back to April 29th at Kansas City, he’s been a much more dominant pitcher, pounding the strike zone, racking up the strikeouts and limiting the big innings.

The 1.65 K/BB ratio he had in those 46 starts would rank 147th out of the 160 total pitchers with at least 200 innings pitched since the start of the 2011 season. The 2.81 K/BB ratio he has in his latest seven starts would rank T-57th. This shows the night-and-day turnaround for Jimenez and the drastic importance of this very simple ratio. He’s jumped from one of the worst to clearly above average.

Now, as sorted by Bill James’ Game Score algorithm, here’s a quick chart of the eight best starts in the 29-year-old Jimenez’s Cleveland career:

# DATE   OPP  DEC   IP  H    R    ER    BB    SO     Gscore
1 6/1/13 v TB W 8.0 4 0 0 1 7 76.0
2 5/6/12 v TEX W 7.0 2 0 0 5 6 71.0
3 4/29/13 @ KC W 7.0 3 0 0 2 4 70.0
4 6/22/12 @ HOU W 6.7 4 0 0 4 8 68.7
5 5/11/13 @ DET W 6.0 3 1 1 1 8 67.0
5 8/10/11 v DET W 8.0 5 3 0 1 6 67.0
5 6/10/12 @ STL 7.0 5 1 1 0 7 67.0
8 8/26/11 v KC W 7.0 7 1 1 1 10 65.0

 

So officially, according to James’ algorithm, Saturday’s outing was by far the best for Jimenez in an Indians uniform. The outing was his first 8-plus inning shutout in exactly two years, dating back to June 1st, 2011 with the Colorado Rockies.

Three of Jimenez’s eight best outings with the team have occurred in this recent seven-start stretch that began on April 29th. However, it still doesn’t really stand as anything all that impressive: According to my research, 11% of AL starts in 2012 finished with a game score of 72+; 5% with 77+.

So while Jimenez set a new Cleveland record and we should be cautiously excited about what’s next, yesterday’s performance wasn’t all that magnificent. Eleven percent means once out of every 9 starts; five percent means one out of every 20 starts. So on average, it should happen easily once for any average-ish pitcher in a given season.

[Related: Cleveland Indians make statement on Friday’s rain-delay game]

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WFNY Stats & Info: Jason Giambi’s slugging tear

June 1, 2013 by 1 Comment

Last weekend, I wrote a tongue-in-cheek WFNY Stats & Info post about a prop bet (h/t @neatgibson): What would be more, Jason Giambi’s home runs or Cleveland Browns wins?

Well, ever since, Giambi has been on an absolute tear for the Indians. He tied Tuesday afternoon’s game against Cincinnati with a eighth-inning home run. He was the star of Thursday evening’s game against the Reds with a three-run homer and an double. Now on Saturday against the Tampa Bay Rays, he has homered again and drove in three more.

MLB.com’s Zack Meisel shared the following stat about something the 42-year-old Giambi now has in common with the reigning Triple Crown winner:

No Indians slugger homered in at least three straight games in 2012. Three players — Asdrubal Cabrera (3 games, 9/19-9/22), Carlos Santana (3 games, 4/28-4/30) and Jason Kipnis (4 games, 7/31-83) — pulled that off in the 2011 season. The last time Giambi did that feat: June 1st-5th, 2006.

Entering Saturday, Giambi’s 16 RBI were only three behind the MLB leader for all players with less than 125 plate appearances. Todd Helton had 19 in 109 PAs entering the day. Giambi had just 75 plate appearances.

[Related: Cleveland Indians make statement on Friday’s rain-delay game]

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WFNY Stats & Info: Indians’ two-out barrage best in MLB since 2011

May 31, 2013 by 4 Comments

Sitting at the Indians-Reds game last night with TD, I had planned to just spend a quiet inning away from my friends. Then, suddenly, Michael Brantley had a two-out RBI hit. And then Yan Gomes. And Ryan Raburn. And the beat continued to the top of the lineup.

All in all, I was away from my friends for nearly 45 minutes as the Indians demoralized Homer Bailey and the Reds for seven  runs in the bottom of the fourth inning. When the rally was finally over against reliever Alfredo Simon, Cleveland had plated six consecutive two-out RBI hits.

So I was curious. After looking at Baseball-Reference’s Play Index search of all of the 7,830 two-out RBI hits since 2012, I was able to find out the historical rarity of last night’s feat.

Cleveland’s six two-out RBI hits in one inning 1 are the most by any team in the last two seasons. Here is the list:

6 – Cleveland, 5/30/13, b4 vs. Cincinnati (7 total RBI)
5 – LA Angels, 8/23/12, t3 at Boston Red Sox (6 total RBI)
5 – St. Louis, 7/21/12, b7 vs. Chicago Cubs (8 total RBI)
4 – (27 occurrences, most recently on 5/25/13 by both San Diego and Atlanta)
3 – (132 occurrences, most recently on 5/25/13 by Boston and 5/24/13 by Houston)

On the season, the Tribe now has a .939 OPS with runners in scoring position and two outs, by far the best in baseball (MLB average is .711). Oddly enough, Terry Francona’s Boston Red Sox ranked 1st (2009), 1st (2010) and 3rd (2011) in this category in his last three seasons with the team.

[Related: Indians 7, Reds 1: We Did It, You Guys. The Ohio Cup is OURS!]

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  1. I can’t necessarily tell if these other streaks were consecutive hits or not. Hence, the definition is simply “two-out RBI hits in one inning” as that is all I can concretely verify en masse. [back]

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WFNY Stats & Info: Tough road ahead for Indians

May 27, 2013 by 8 Comments

Although the Tribe already has played in back-to-back difficult series against Detroit and Boston, the upcoming schedule doesn’t get any more favorable. Beginning with the start of this four-game road-and-home series against Cincinnati, the Indians have a very tough 19-game map ahead.

Team H/R Opponent Wins Losses Pct # of Games
CLE @ CIN 31 19 0.620 2
CLE CIN 31 19 0.620 2
CLE TBR 25 24 0.510 3
CLE @ NYY 30 19 0.612 3
CLE @ DET 28 20 0.583 3
CLE @ TEX 32 18 0.640 3
CLE WSN 26 24 0.520 3

 

Overall, when factoring in number of games, the strength of schedule for the Indians over this 19-game stretch is .583. On the year, the team already has a combined record of 4-8 against Tampa Bay, New York and Detroit. When factoring away those games from the opponent’s season record, the strength of schedule still sits at .580.

This stretch will help to shape what direction the Tribe goes for the rest of 2013. The team is 27-22 right now. Last season, the team similarly started 26-18 and then collapsed en route to a 68-94 record, the worst such collapse for a team that started with that record.

[Related: The Diff: Historical finishes for 26-18 MLB teams]

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WFNY Stats & Info: Browns wins or Jason Giambi home runs?

May 25, 2013 by 2 Comments

Throughout 2013, I’ve been providing semi-regular headlines here at WFNY under the vein of “WFNY Stats & Info.” Often, these will be incredibly detailed split statistics showing various streaks and runs for the Cleveland teams. Today, I’d like to propose something different: A Cleveland-based prop bet.

Which will be more: Home runs hit by Jason Giambi in 2013 for the Cleveland Indians OR wins in 2013 by the Cleveland Browns? Share your response in the comments.

The gist on Jason Giambi

There’s no doubt that Giambi has been one of the premier sluggers in the last 20 years in baseball. He only has 431 home runs, but has an excellent .521 slugging percentage. For his career, entering Friday night, he was averaging 20.2 plate appearances per home run.

The difference is that he’s been a shell of his former MVP-self over the past few years. Here are the average numbers in the six seasons from 2007-2012: 90.2 games, 285.7 plate appearances, 54.8 hits, 10.0 doubles, 13.2 home runs, 40.8 walks, 62.2 strikeouts, .235/.363/.448. His plate appearance per home run statistic still remained pretty close at 21.7.

But, entering 2013, no one knew if Giambi would even make the Indians roster. He had been primarily a pinch-hitter for Colorado the last year, hardly ever starting in the field. And the batting numbers weren’t all that good. Yet, Giambi made the roster, was an excellent clubhouse addition and even belted two home runs in his first four games, totaling 18 plate appearances.

Since then? It hasn’t been pretty. Through Friday, he’s now 0-for-22 in his last eight games dating back to May 11th, with just five walks. He now has 69 plate appearances on the year. As always, getting double-digit home runs was always going to be a matter of plate appearances, but his struggles have reached a new level. Even if he were to get to 180 plate appearances, are even 8 homers a given? Certainly, it could be rationalized if the team cuts ties with him by the All-Star Break or sooner.

The gist on the Browns

Over the last five seasons, your beloved Browns have a combined record of 23-57. They’ve never had more than five wins in any of those years. They’ve gone just 5-25 against the AFC North and then underwent yet another drastic franchise makeover in this past offseason. Their GM Michael Lombardi was an incredibly unpopular hire and new head coach Rob Chudzinski was as un-glossy of a hire as they come.

So what are fans thinking? As of now, I’d optimistically put my over/under on the Browns at maybe 6.5. That’s clearly showing some faith in the continued development of the young stars on both sides. The team should be much improved defensively, but is the schedule still too tough? Will the offense produce at even NFL averages yet?

As I’ve said to friends and family countless times when discussing this fake prop bet, the city of Cleveland would be absolutely thrilled with an 8-win 2013. Fans would be screaming “Super Bowl sleeper” as 2014 approaches. In my mind, 7 wins is the breakeven point of excitement and frustration. Anything less, even to a mild nature 6 wins, could be considered a disappointment.

My vote: As I was leaning initially, despite some wavering, I’m going with the Browns. Eight days ago, this was a much closer decision. Most of my family was leaning toward Giambi, on the hopes he’d stay with the team all year and maintain at least a replacement-level form of slugging. Now? He’s been dreadful and could be cut at any moment with no qualms 1 . Yet the Browns maintain a solid pace for 6 wins or more. That’s where I’m leaning again.

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  1. Although because of his exceptional clubhouse presence, even if he is dismissed from the roster, one would expect he’d remain with the team somehow in some capacity. All indications seem to point toward him eventually becoming a manager one day. [back]

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WFNY Stats & Info: Indians lead AL in several batting splits

May 21, 2013 by 1 Comment

Yesterday, before the Indians improved now to 18-4 in their last 22 games, I looked at a six-pack of intriguing statistics behind this very impressive run.

Today, I’m looking at several split offensive statistics where the Tribe has shined thus far in 2013. They show a lot of the biggest strengths of the Terry Francona’s squad:

Batting 1st – .316 batting average, #1 in AL (avg: .265)
Batting 8th – .491 slugging percentage, #1 in AL (avg: .386)
Vs. LHP – .480 slugging percentage, #1 in AL (avg: .409)
When ahead – .534 slugging percentage, #1 in AL (avg: .433)
With 2 outs – .856 OPS, #1 in AL (avg: .732)
RISP, 2 outs – .304 batting average, #1 in AL (avg: .248)
RISP, 2 outs – .549 slugging percentage, #1 in AL (avg: .404)
Runners on – .476 slugging percentage, #1 in AL (avg: .420)
Innings 1-3 – .847 OPS, #2 in AL behind TBR (avg: .756)

Now, for full disclosure, here are a handful of notable caveats to the statistics above:

  • Obviously, the Indians already rank 1st in slugging and 1st in OPS in the American League. So these splits shouldn’t be all that shocking. But these are some of the most significant ones I could find.
  • The Indians rank 5th in the American League with a .309 BABIP. While this isn’t absurdly high, it’s probably especially higher over the past four weeks. So possibly, this will fall back down to earth, affecting all of the team’s offensive statistics.
  • As noted yesterday, the Indians started the season with a .207 batting average with RISP in the first 17 games. That just shows how ridiculously good they’ve been in this split ever since.
  • Going back to the topic I covered in The Diff recently: The Indians have won lots of blowouts, but also have had some stinkers too. Their slugging percentage is more than 100 points better than the AL average when ahead in games. Thus, when the team is behind, their OPS (.699) is actually below the AL average (.715).
  • Finally, you didn’t see me mention on-base percentage very much at all above. Mostly, that’s because the Indians have not been that elite in that category; their OBP of .335 ranks T-3rd in the AL this season, and doesn’t shine through in any split.

[Related: Indians 10 Mariners 8: Yan Freaking Gomes and the Mariners Defense – a Lethal Combination]

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WFNY Stats & Info: Indians hot streak continues to 17-4

May 20, 2013 by 4 Comments

It’s been one amazing ride for the Cleveland Indians over the past few weeks. Heck, as TD wrote late last week, they should the man story in town.

In honor of Sunday’s 6-0 victory over the Seattle Mariners, here are six positive tweet-worthy statistics from this impressive stretch. I’d encourage you to share them on Twitter and tag us at #WFNY or mention me @udjrosen.

Stat #1 — Indians are now 17-4 in their last 21 games with 121-69 (+52) run differential. It’s team’s best 21-game differential since September 2005.

Stat #2 — Indians starters in first 21 games: 5-13 record, 5.72 ERA, 1.7 K/BB. Indians starters in next 21 games: 13-4 record, 2.98 ERA, 3.1 K/BB.

Stat #3 — After starting year with .207 avg with RISP in first 15 games, Indians have a .311 avg with RISP in last 27 games.

Stat #4 — Entering Sunday, the Indians ranked 3rd in AL with 88 runs with 2 outs. Their split OPS was .843, compared to a .753 OPS with 0 outs.

Stat #5 — Entering Sunday, the Indians led MLB with 22 home runs against lefty pitchers. They had just 40 in 2012 (T-25th) and 36 in 2011 (T-20th).

Stat #6 — Entering Sunday, Indians offense ranked 5th in MLB with 3.95 pitches/PA. Four players ranked in top 33: Santana, Reynolds, Kipnis, Swisher.

[Related: The Diff: Indians odd start and usual MLB run distribution]

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WFNY Stats & Info: Historical numbers during Indians’ recent run

May 9, 2013 by 2 Comments

The Indians are now 9-1 in their last 10 games. The last time the team went at least 9-1 in a 10-game stretch was sparked by a 10-game winning streak from August 17-27, 2008. It’s been four-and-a-half seasons.

But the most impressive thing about these last 10 games has been the run differential. Overall, the Tribe is out-scoring their opponents 67-24 (+43) in these 10 games. After taking the first three games over the Oakland A’s by a combined 6 runs, that means they beat their first 7 opponents by a combined 37 runs.

That +43 differential is actually the second-best in a 10-game stretch during the 2013 season. The Tigers out-scored opponents by +49 in such a run earlier this year.

The last time Cleveland had at least a +43 differential in a 10-game stretch was April-May 2001.

Here are the offensive stats during these last 10 games:

349 at-bats 67 runs
111 hits
18 doubles
4 triples
21 homers
65 RBI
76 strikeouts
26 walks
.318 avg,
.366 on-base percentage
.573 slugging percentage
.939 OPS

The slugging percentage is the statistic that stands out the most to me. In the first 21 games of the season, the Indians only had a .418 slugging percentage. That again ties to yesterday’s stat about the amazing—yet unsustainable—nature of the team’s slugging increase.

Here are the starting pitching stats during these last 10 games:

8-1 record
2.64 ERA
64.2 IP
47 hits
19 runs/earned runs
6 home runs
22 walks
55 strikeouts
.204 avg,
1.07 WHIP
7.7 K/9
3.1 BB/9
2.50 K/BB

That’s also quite impressive comparatively to the start of the season. In those first 21 games, the Indians rotation had a 5.72 ERA. Overall on the year, the Tribe pitching staff has tied for the lowest BABIP in baseball at .264, with the rotation ranking 29th at .267.

All of these stats seem flukey and I hate to be the bearer of bad news. But that +43 run and the impressive output from both the sluggers and starters deserve to be in near-historical ranking.

[Related: Animated: Nick Swisher celebrates… a lot]

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WFNY Stats & Info: Examining the Indians’ jump in slugging percentage

May 8, 2013 by 2 Comments

As it currently stands, the Cleveland Indians’ .101 increase in OPS is the largest year-over-year increase from last season in Major League Baseball. Most of that increase is naturally from the team’s massive improvement in slugging percentage.

So I set out to investigate: What are the largest year-over-year increases in slugging percentage in MLB history? The Indians are at .089 over last year in SLG alone. I figured that that has to be some type of record. In fact, it is. As of right now, that would be tied for the second-largest increase in MLB history dating back to 1903.

Only four times has there ever been an increase of .080+. The best ever: .095 by the 1977 Chicago White Sox. Second-best: .089 exactly by the 1911 White Sox.

This obviously shows the historical significance of the Indians’ early-season slugging numbers, especially as it compares to the anemic 2012 Cleveland offense. But it also seems discouraging: This slugging probably won’t keep up at this leve 1 . It just hardly ever happens so suddenly.

The best-ever slugging increase in the last decade: the 2004 Detroit Tigers at .074. Only five teams since 2003 have had an year-over-year slugging percentage increase of .05+.

The best-ever slugging increase in Indians history: the 1994 team at .075. Of course, that was the strike-shortened season, but it also was the start of the successful streak of the mid ’90s.

[Related: Mark Reynolds and His Missing Strikeouts]

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  1. The Indians are currently owners of the fourth-highest home run-per-fly ball rate in baseball with 14.3 percent. In 2012, they were 26th with 9.4 percent. A different line-up, sure, but these numbers, if sustained, would be Yankee-like. Mark Reynolds and Carlos Sanatana, for instance, are both hitting HRs at a higher clip than their career averages. [back]

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WFNY Stats & Info: Putting Bauer’s early command issues into perspective

May 2, 2013 by 8 Comments

Trevor Bauer’s performance last night was just the 98th time in MLB history that a starting pitcher had the following stats:

– At least 5.0 IP
– No runs allowed
– At least 6 walks
– Max of 1 hit

Tampa Bay’s Matt Moore had a similar such performance on April 10 this season. No pitchers accomplished this feat in 2012.

Specific to the Indians, when with the Colorado Rockies, Ubaldo Jimenez’s no-hitter on April 17, 2010 qualifies as he managed to walk six Braves despite allowing zero hits.

Justin Masterson was the last Indian to do so, on August 15, 2010 where he walked six Seattle Mariner batters in six innings of work.

Of all MLB pitchers with at least 10 innings under their belt in 2013, Bauer leads the pack with 11.7 walks per nine innings pitched. St. Louis’ Mitchell Boggs is second, a full three walks-per-nine-innings fewer than Bauer.

In MLB history, only 51 pitchers have ever started a season with at least six walks in each of their first two outings. Besides Bauer in 2013, Cincinnati’s Homer Bailey was the most recent to do so in 2009. Only five pitchers then advanced their streak to three games—Hall of Famers Nolan Ryan (1977) and Bob Feller (1941) are among this group.

[Related: Indians 6, Phillies 0: Bauer & The Raburn Show Help Tribe to Fourth Straight Win]

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WFNY Stats & Info: NFL mock draft database teaser

April 23, 2013 by 10 Comments

Tomorrow, in my weekly WFNY Wednesday post called The Diff, I’ll be sharing a detailed analysis of 50 NFL mock drafts and dozens more big boards.

For today, as a special “WFNY Stats & Info” sneak peek of tomorrow’s post, I bring you inside the WFNY email chain for two early items I shared with the group this morning.

Milliner emerging as mock draft favorite at No. 6

Among these 50 mock drafts from around the Internet, Alabama CB Dee Milliner is picked in the top five in just eight of them (16%). Among the other 42 mock drafts, he’s picked by the Cleveland Browns at No. 6 in 28 (66.7%).

Obviously, for clarity, there are so many factors at play when mock drafts include trades. Thus, those mocks have been ignored for this early analysis. But for now, let it be known that Milliner is emerging as the clear favorite if the Browns actually do stay at No. 6 — so study up.

After Milliner, there are five other players — BYU DE Ezekiel Ansah, Notre Dame TE Tyler Eifert, Oregon OLB Dion Jordan, Utah DT Star Lotulelei and LSU DE Barkevious Mingo — that were picked by the Browns in 3-5 of the mock drafts.

Mock draft confusion with the Eagles at No. 4

While the first three picks in the NFL Draft have shown a relatively consensus pattern per these 50 mocks, there’s no favorite at all for the Philadelphia Eagles at No. 4.

Lotulelei was picked the most times (13) overall, but both Central Michigan OT Eric Fisher (35%) and Texas A&M OT Luke Joeckel (33%) were picked more frequently when available.

Overall, there are five players with picked-available rates between 24-35% at the No. 4 slot for Philadelphia. That’s by far the most tightly contested among the top seven. And if folks recall, Milliner was an early favorite here as well.

[Related: Hooray! NFL Network and ESPN agree not to tip draft picks via Twitter]

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WFNY Stats & Info: Easiest roads to the Final Four

March 29, 2013 by Leave a Comment

With Ohio State’s dramatic win over Arizona last night, I’m certain many of you are asking this question: Who else has played only 6 seeds or worse en route to a possible Final Four? As usual, I have the statistical research for the answer today.

Dating back to the start of the 64-team bracket style in 1985, there have been 116 regions including this year. Out of those 116 regional winners that then advanced to the Final Four, Ohio State would be the 11th winner that didn’t play a top-5 seed. Thus, on average, it occurs about every three years. Here’s the list thus far:

Year Region Seed Team W #1 W #2 W #3 W #4 Result?
1986 E. Rutherford 1 Duke 16 8 12 7 Runner-up
1990 Oakland 1 UNLV 16 8 12 11 Champion
1990 Dallas 4 Arkansas 13 12 8 10 Final 4
1991 E. Rutherford 1 N. Carolina 16 9 12 10 Final 4
1993 Seattle 1 Michigan 16 9 12 7 Runner-up
1999 E. Rutherford 1 Duke 16 9 12 6 Runner-up
2001 Atlanta 1 Mich. State 16 9 12 11 Final 4
2004 Phoenix 2 Connecticut 15 7 6 8 Champion
2008 Detroit 1 Kansas 16 8 12 10 Champion

 

I had previously tweeted that Kansas in 2008 was the last such team to accomplish this feat. Their most difficult opponent was a No. 8 seed in the second round, then won in the all 1-seed Final Four. Two other teams — 1991 North Carolina and 2001 Michigan State — didn’t play any teams ranked better than No. 9.

Oddly enough, these teams then went 7-3 in the national semifinals, followed by 3-4 in the championship game. Those numbers obviously are slightly better than just average.

Of course, many high-ranked seeds lost to low seeds en route to their hopeful Final Fours. So these are just the 10 success stories against easy schedules in the first 28 years of the 64-team bracket style.

Ohio State still has one difficult task en route to their second straight Final Four — that’s No. 9 Wichita State, the same one that took down No. 1 Gonzaga last weekend. The Shockers are now ranked #20 in Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency rankings and already had impressive wins over VCU and Creighton during the regular season.

[Related: LaQuintessential! Ross Sends Bucks To Elite 8 on Second Straight GW Shot]

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WFNY Stats & Info: Mavericks closing in on Lakers in West

March 28, 2013 by 2 Comments

The NBA regular season concludes in just 20 days on Wednesday, April 17. Between now and then, boy, there’s going to be a whole lot of exciting back-and-forth action.

Most notably as it relates to the Cavs besides their own draft position, fans should be paying attention to the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference playoff race. Back on March 8, I shared an update about how the Lakers were closing in on Utah. But now, there’s a new competitor: Dallas.

Fitted with some gnarly motivational playoff beards, the Mavericks are on a 10-4 tear in March while the rest of the hopeful playoff teams continue their relatively mediocre play.

After a busy Wednesday night in the Association, here’s the most recent look at how the bottom of the West playoff standings play out right now:

Rk Team W L Pct GB Left SRS JH Rt JH Rk JH Odds
6 GSW 41 32 0.562 +3.5 9 0.75 100.8 12 98.8%
7 HOU 39 32 0.549 +2.5 11 3.90 104.1 7 98.4%
8 LAL 37 35 0.514 – 10 1.14 100.8 13 54.5%
9 UTA 36 36 0.500 -1.0 10 -0.17 99.8 18 26.1%
10 DAL 35 36 0.493 -1.5 11 -0.09 100.5 15 19.2%
11 POR 33 38 0.465 -3.5 11 -1.36 100.1 16 3.0%

 

Now, with data through Tuesday’s games, here is a look at these teams’ remaining schedules:

Rk Team Left P/L H/R P: H/R L: H/R W Pct JH Avg SRS Avg
6 GSW 9 3/6 6/3 2/1 4/2 0.497 100.4 0.5
7 HOU 11 5/6 5/6 2/3 3/3 0.480 99.2 -0.8
8 LAL 10 6/4 6/4 4/2 2/2 0.539 101.4 1.3
9 UTA 10 5/5 6/4 3/2 3/2 0.527 101.4 1.1
10 DAL 11 6/5 6/5 4/2 2/3 0.506 100.2 0.2
11 POR 11 8/3 7/4 5/3 2/1 0.586 103.0 2.8

 

Key: JH stands for John Hollinger’s ratings, rankings and playoff odds at ESPN. SRS is a standardized ranking system built around an average of 0.0. P/L is playoffs and lottery teams, while H/R is home and road games.

Both Golden State and Houston appear to be playoff locks with only a few weeks left. Thus, after all the positioning thus far, it appears these next four teams are battling only for the No. 8 spot.

With Wednesday’s win, the Lakers actually jumped from about 42% playoff odds to over 54%. That’s also because every other team besides Utah (win) and Dallas (didn’t play) lost last night. But it shows how the Lakers’ progress had been stagnant over the last few weeks.

In terms of remaining schedules, Dallas and Utah are both at a slight advantage over the Lakers. The Jazz play the fewest remaining playoff teams (5), while the Mavericks have the easiest opponent winning percentage, Hollinger rating and SRS rating by a slight margin.

Portland’s blowout loss Wednesday against Brooklyn (they trailed 46-17 just 14 minutes into the game) probably ended its playoff hopes. The Trail Blazers also have a brutal schedule left — facing eight playoff teams in their 11 remaining games.

[Related: The Boots: NBA Draft Lottery, John Wall and winning streaks]

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WFNY Stats & Info: Elite 8 of NCAA tournament facts

March 25, 2013 by 4 Comments

There truly is no better time of the year than March Madness, right? Exactly. And that’s why today, after my spree of statistical #tournyhistory tweets @udjrosen last night, I’m here today at WFNY to share some notable facts as we enter the Sweet 16. Here you go with my Elite 8 of neat facts:

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No. 1: The 2 Ohio State-6 Arizona matchup will be the 27th between a 2-seed and a 6-seed since the tournament expanded to the 64-team format in 1985. In the previous 26 matchups, 2-seeds have a 20-6 record. This includes Ohio State’s victory over 6-seed Cincinnati in 2012.

No. 2: The 2013 tournament is the first ever with three 12-or-lower seeds to make the Sweet 16. (h/t @SportsCenter) In fact, a total of 15 teams seeded 9 or lower have made the Sweet 16 in the last four seasons. In the previous six, only 13 such teams had made the Sweet 16. Parity, eh?

No. 3: With three sub-12 seeds making the Sweet 16, I thought it’d be appropriate to rehash how these teams have done in this round: 1-25 (4%) all-time. Yikes. (More on this one win in a moment) It’s then significantly better for 10-11 seeds: 12-48 (20%). Logically, this would be because 12′s or 13′s historically are faced with a more daunting schedule in the regional semifinals.

No. 4: Now, the story of the tournament: the amazing 15-seed Florida Gulf Coast Eagles. They’re obviously the first-ever 15-seed to make the Sweet 16. All-time, since 1985, 15-seeds now have a 7-109 (6%) record in the first round. They’re now 1-6 (14%) in the second round.

No. 5: Keeping with FGCU: Surprisingly, per ESPN, 0.95% of brackets submitted to their website had the Eagles in the Sweet 16. As crazy high as that may seem, it might actually be about right. Out of 116 regions, this is the first 15-seed to make the Sweet 16. So 1/100 is approximately about right. Good job, America.

No. 6: Also a first in 2013: Our first ever matchup between a 9-13. The 9-seed Wichita State Shockers will play the 13-seed La Salle Explorers in Los Angeles for an Elite 8 berth. Lowest-ever seed to make an Elite 8? That would be a 12-seed, once: 2002 Missouri. With an easier than normal matchup, La Salle could break that record.

No. 7: Speaking of La Salle, they became the second First Four team to advance all the way to the Sweet 16. Of course, 11-seed VCU also accomplished that feat in 2011 all the way to the Final Four. Also including 12-seed South Florida’s first-round upset in 2012, that makes First Four winners a combined 7-5 in three seasons (thus far).

No. 8: Finally, a nod to the only 1-seed that bowed out over the weekend: Gonzaga. The ‘Zags have actually made it to 15 consecutive NCAA tournaments, but only appeared in one Elite 8. Their record by round: 13-2 in Round of 64; 5-8 in Round of 32; 1-4 in Sweet 16; 0-1 in Elite 8. As my friend Nate pointed out too, that lone Elite 8 was actually the first of these 15 years as a 10-seed in 1999.

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[Related: The Diff: Ohio State’s March Madness odds]

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WFNY Stats & Info: NCAA tournament bubble update – March 11

March 11, 2013 by Leave a Comment

On Wednesday this past week, my latest edition of The Diff covered some aggregate math for NCAA tournament bracket and bubble predictions. I’ve been keeping track all week — and posting occasional thoughts on Twitter @udjrosen — so I thought I’d share a brief weekend update on bubble teams for today.

Overall, things went fairly ho-hum for the general bubble outlook since last Wednesday. Bubble teams were happy with Belmont‘s Saturday victory in the Ohio Valley Championship. The Bears would have been a potentially fearsome bubble team with a very solid strength of schedule for a mid-major.

Then, the expected tournament championship matchups again fell into place for the Missouri Valley and West Coast conferences, the two conferences many expect to have exactly 2 teams in the tournament: Creighton-Wichita State (won by the Jays on Sunday) and Gonzaga-St. Mary’s (to take place Monday). Such chalk movement was again a helpful break for resident bubble teams, as both teams were practical tournament locks already.

But then, there was finally some unexpected movement in the bubble race on Sunday evening: heavy conference favorite Middle Tennessee lost in the semifinals of the Sun Belt tournament. The Blue Raiders were an automatic qualifier and 11 or 12-seed in all five brackets I sampled as of Saturday evening, theoretically placing them right in the thick of the bubble race. They now join the bubble fold while Florida International moves on in the Sun Belt tourny.

Thus, without further narratives, here’s the table with a new approach of looking at the bubble. These aggregate bracket projections are as of Saturday evening. At the moment, these bubble teams (plus now Middle Tennessee) are fighting for the final 8 spots:

# Team Conf. Lunardi Stevens Palm Nolan Bracketville
1 Saint Mary’s WCC IN IN IN IN Last 5 In
2 Temple A-10 Last 4 In  IN IN IN IN
3 Villanova Big East IN IN IN Last 4 In  IN
4 La Salle A-10 IN IN Last 4 In  IN Last 5 In
5 Boise State MWC Last 4 In  Last 4 In  IN Last 4 In  IN
6 Iowa State Big 12 IN Last 4 In  Last 4 In  Last 4 In  Last 5 In
7 Tennessee SEC Last 4 In  Last 4 In  Last 4 In  First 4 Out  Last 5 In
8 Virginia ACC Last 4 In  First 4 Out  OUT IN Last 5 In
9 Kentucky SEC Next 4 Out Last 4 In  Last 4 In  Last 4 In  First 5 Out
10 Ole Miss SEC First 4 Out  First 4 Out  First 4 Out  First 4 Out  First 5 Out
11 Alabama SEC First 4 Out  First 4 Out  First 4 Out  OUT First 5 Out
12 Massachusetts A-10 OUT First 4 Out  First 4 Out  OUT First 5 Out

 

As one can quickly tell, each of the top 6 teams in this outlook all made the tournament as at-large teams each time. Then, the true debate comes into play with the next three teams — Tennessee, Virginia and Kentucky — who went back-and-forth with tournament entry in the proverbial final two slots. Middle Tennessee likely will be right in this final mix too.

With very few of these teams — only St. Mary’s tonight in the West Coast championship — in action until Wednesday, I’ll share another update by then to discuss how these teams did this past weekend, what they might need to still do in order to push the committee’s hand a bit more and additional peripheral games to keep an eye on as it relates to the bubble. I thought it would just be helpful for the WFNY readership again today to see my math and line of thinking for the NCAA tournament bubble picture.

[Related: The Diff: NCAA tournament bracket math]

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WFNY Stats & Info: Lakers’ chances of making playoffs

March 8, 2013 by 9 Comments

Over the last few days, I’ve seen several fans complaining on Twitter about why some fans are monitoring the Cavs’ draft position constantly. For me, it’s a fun task. I love draft talk. I even wrote a significant amount about the NBA Draft prospects last Saturday.

But here’s another idea: How about we just stick to following the Lakers instead? The Cavs are currently tied for 6th in the lottery standings. At the moment, only 3.5 games separate the 3rd and 11th teams. But most likely, the Cavs will situate themselves somewhere in the 5-8 range. Not a whole lot of room for drastic changes.

Then, there’s Los Angeles. The Lakers are now 14-6 in their last 20 games. They’ve finally roared back to .500 and the playoff picture, especially with their miraculous win Wednesday night over the Pelicans (nee Hornets).

As a friendly reminder, if the Lakers make the playoffs, the Cavaliers will swap their current possession of Miami’s first-round pick (28-30 range) with LA’s (15-16 range). This doesn’t happen if LA ends up in the lottery — Phoenix would then own their pick. So this would be a pretty big bonus for Cleveland if it occurs.

Meanwhile, the Utah Jazz, the new No. 8 team in the West and the most likely contender to slip out if LA slips in 1 , are struggling. They collapsed at the last minute against the Cavs on Wednesday night (double whammy of goodness) and are fading to the tune of 1-5 in their last 6 games.

So how do these two teams’ remaining schedules add up? Let’s take a look at some quick peripheral numbers:

Team Games H/R P/L P: H/R L: H/R
LAL 20 10/10 9/11 5/4 5/6
UTH 21 11/10 12/9 5/7 6/3

 

The above table breaks down in general the remaining games for these two teams. P/L shows Playoffs/Lottery, then there’s a Home/Road breakdown of those two splits as well. Obviously, the Lakers have more of their difficult games at home and the Jazz have more of their difficult games on the road. Here are some more advanced stats:

Team W Pct H/R Pct JH Avg SRS Avg
LAL 0.480 0.489 99.57 -0.509
UTH 0.537 0.532 100.88 1.240

 

The first column is standard Strength of Schedule: opponent winning percentage. Then, I had a simple H/R win percentage, where I just took the opponent team’s home or road record, depending on the location of the game. John Hollinger ranking average and SRS ranking average are then the final two numbers.

So quite clearly, the Lakers have the edge in terms of the slightly more favorable closing schedule. Will they pull it off and make up the final 1.5 games? Entering Thursday, Hollinger’s playoff odds had the Jazz at 57.2% odds to make the playoffs, the Lakers at 52.6% 2 , their highest in several weeks at least. So it’s practically a toss-up at this point.

It should be fun to watch. And for fans craving daily draft lottery news — this might be the more fruitful (and less polarizing) chase to follow in the final five weeks of the NBA season.

[Related: 2013 NBA Draft: Second tier fits for the Cavaliers]

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  1. Playoff picture: LA is 1.5 games behind Utah and 2.0 games behind No. 7 Houston. But the Rockets are one of the most fun teams in the league, with one of its hottest offenses. They’re 11-7 in their last 18 games. So that’s why they’re being ignored and I’m picking on the Jazz. [back]
  2. Clearly, with simple math, that adds up to 109.8%, not 100%. That just reflects the slight uncertainty that exists with the playoff hopes of Houston and No. 6 Golden State. But more likely than not, it will be Utah and the Lakers down the stretch. [back]

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