May 22, 2013

“This Regression Will Not Stand, Man”: What Happened To Carlos Santana?

July 11, 2012 by 35 Comments

Carlos Santana’s 2011 season drew a line in the sand among most Indians fans I know.  There was the group that wondered why his batting average was so low (.239) and consequently seemed somewhat bearish on his potential, maturity-level, talent, etc.

The other group drooled over his on-base percentage (.351) and power potential (.457 slugging percentage).  They wrote off his low batting average to poor luck on balls in play, and figured that he was bound to break out in a major way in 2012.  He had a great batting eye and prodigious power.  The rest typically takes care of itself.

You’ll remember that I was in the second group.  And now I’m worried that maybe I was wrong, because Carlos Santana’s 2012 is not going well.

The reason I know that 2012 is not going well is that my brother has not yet forgiven me for the advice I gave him during his fantasy baseball draft.  Something along the lines of, “You’ll regret not having him on your team.  Best hitting catcher in baseball this season.”  There may or may not have been a “Book it” involved. [Read more...]

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Carlos Santana’s BABiP: Can He Recover?

May 23, 2011 by 43 Comments

If you’re not careful when discussing statistics, you’re going to be misunderstood.  Heck, even when you are careful you’re likely to be misunderstood.

For example, I talk quite a bit about players’ batting averages on balls in play (BABiP), which measures how many batted balls fall in for hits.  And when doing so, I’ll say something like, “Most pitchers can’t control this rate; typically it will normalize around .300 if you have enough of a sample.”

That statement then gets misconstrued as meaning “All players must have BABiPs of .300, and anything else is pure fluke-luck-randomness.”  Which of course, is not remotely what’s being said nor what I meant.

We have to remember that just because something is affected by randomness, luck, or defense (things pitchers and batters can’t control), that it doesn’t mean they are determined by those things.  Just that they play a significant role. [Read more...]

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Carlos Santana’s Batting Average: Cause for Concern?

May 3, 2011 by 20 Comments

Carlos Santana has been an integral part of two of the more important and memorable moments of the Indians’ young season.

On April 3, while playing first base, he dove for a bunted ball that had been popped up down the line.  The Indians had lost their first two games by ignominious margins and were losing the third.  There were runners on first and second with nobody out in the fourth inning.  Justin Masterson was looking flustered.  Santana, of course, caught the bunt, threw to first and started MLB’s first 3-4-6 triple play since 2003 and only the third since 1910.  Since then, the Indians have gone 19-6, posting baseball’s best record.

The second play, of course, was the walk off grand slam on Friday night.  There’s not much more to say, other than that it was freaking awesome and I now have about 30 pictures saved to my computer to document the freaking awesomeness of it all. [Read more...]

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What’s Behind the Rotation’s Improvement?

April 20, 2011 by 9 Comments

Make no mistake: the start of the Indians’ season has been fun. For those keeping track at home, they’re off to the second best start in franchise history, due to a strong offensive showing, improved defense and strong starting pitching.

And while I think plenty of people expected the Indians to have a reasonably strong offense this season, just a few weeks ago most people were fairly skeptical of the rotation, and for good reason.  Our “ace” hadn’t had a truly effective season in four years.  Our #2 starter was only 23 years old and had already developed quite a proclivity for allowing home runs.  Many argued that our #3 pitcher should be in the bullpen.  The rest were labeled as cast-offs or back-end fodder, just filling spots until the draft picks arrive. [Read more...]

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SABR-Toothed Triber: Josh Tomlin & Rainy-Day Parades

July 29, 2010 by 8 Comments

Two days ago Josh Tomlin made his debut for the Tribe against the New York Yankees—the same Yankees who lead the majors in wins (64), runs (545), OBP (.354), and wOBA (.351).  In other words, a 25 year old rookie was going up against the best offense in baseball.

And Tomlin was awesome.  He retired the first nine batters he saw.  He faced the minimum through six innings.  He didn’t walk a single batter against the team with the highest on-base percentage in baseball. The only run he “allowed” scored from first base after Tomlin had exited the game.  The rookie recorded his first win by going 7+ innings and walking off the mound to a standing ovation.

It was a remarkable debut.  Which makes what I’m about to do a real bummer.  Sorry ‘bout that. [Read more...]

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SABR-Toothed Triber: Vetting the Other Carlos

July 8, 2010 by 4 Comments

It’s not like we have anything else to think about in Cleveland sports, right?  Let’s talk Indians’ prospects and math!

The Indians have had only six starting pitchers this year.  Depending on your perspective, that’s either a promising development or one of many reasons we’re in last place.  Either way, the consistency in the rotation lends itself to some fairly straightforward assessments.  For example, not a single starter has a K/BB ratio of 2:1—typically the benchmark for MLB success.  Masterson leads the team with 1.78 K/BB.  Aaron Laffey (of all people) leads the rotation in K-rate at 8.16 per nine innings pitched.  Carmona leads the starters with 3.69 ERA that he has parlayed into an All-Star appearance. [Read more...]

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SABR-Toothed Triber: Justin Masterson’s Regression

June 14, 2010 by 6 Comments

Just a few weeks back, I started to question how much longer Masterson could stay in the Indians’ rotation.  Early in the season, I knew it had the potential to get ugly, but I was all for sticking with him for the year to see if he could figure it out.  But each time Masterson took the mound, things seemed to get worse: his control looked off, lefties were still pounding him, and he just couldn’t catch a break.  For his sake, I started to wonder if Masterson didn’t need a break from the rotation.  Further, it looked like Laffey’s demotion to Columbus signaled that the front office had seen enough of the experiment as well, and they were on their way to shifting Masterson back to the ‘pen, as soon as Laffey could get stretched out.  I can’t say I disagreed.

But then a funny thing happened on the way to demotion.  Masterson went on a three game tear that looked something like this: [Read more...]

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