The narrative du jour surrounding the Cleveland Indians is pretty straightforward.  A young team that should be getting better.  A durable pitching staff with at least two front-end arms.  A bullpen built on young talent.  A core of position players that seems poised to hit its prime.  Even with the glaring hole at first base, it’s pretty easy to squint and see this team winning the weak AL Central in 2012.  And everybody knows that the playoffs are a crapshoot.   Anything could happen…

That’s how the narrative goes at least.  And I have to admit: it’s a narrative I’ve been fairly complicit in promoting over the last several months.  Beginning with the hot start to the 2011 season and culminating with the trade for Ubaldo Jimenez, I convinced myself that this team was on a steady and significant upward trajectory—that the nadir of the rebuild had been passed and that blue skies were on the horizon.

There’s just one problem with the narrative: it might not be true.  Let’s discuss. [Read more...]