June 19, 2013

The Diff: The stats behind drafting Nerlens Noel at No. 1

The Diff is your weekly Wednesday WFNY look into the amazing world of sports statistics. For a complete log of articles, click this link. Last week, The Diff covered the historical finishes for MLB teams that started 26-18. This week, it’s NBA Draft talk time.

The Diff

Since the Cavaliers won the lottery last week, Cleveland sports fans have been enamored by the idea of Nerlens Noel. Whether you love him or hate him, the 19-year-old University of Kentucky center already has been the subject of dozens of Cleveland-based analyses and reports. Is he the best prospect in this draft? Will he fit in the NBA? Will he actually make an impact in 2012-13? How good can he be? After perusing through the usual and not-so-usual stats, I’m here today to give you the statistical know-how about why Noel should be the Cavs’ no-doubt pick at No. 1.

 

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Cavs Win Coin Toss Tiebreakers for NBA Draft

Some good non-football news hit Cleveland today: The Cavaliers won a pair of tiebreakers to decide positioning in the NBA Draft. First, the team won a coin toss to break a tie with the Sacramento Kings New Orleans Hornets for the third spot, then via the Los Angeles Lakers pick, the team won another coin toss tiebreaker for the No. 24 spot. (Sorry folks, got confused with Kings recent win and Hornets in the tie. You all are the best.)

What this means for the early pick is that if neither team moves up to the top three in the lottery format, the Cavs are guaranteed to pick above the Kings Hornets. This assures Cleveland of picking no lower than sixth in the draft. Cleveland also won a bit of positioning with the Lakers selection, boosting the team’s offseason assets just a little bit more.

By the looks of it so far, last year’s luck might be riding the Cavs way again. Even Nick Gilbert was on hand for today, as Dan Gilbert pointed out on Twitter:

Fans will have to wait a while for the next possible bit of draft luck, however, as the lottery is not for another five weeks until May 30. Cavs will have 138 combinations out of 1,000 (13.8 percent) while the New Orleans Hornets will have 137.

[Related: WFNY 2012 NBA Draft Not-So-Big Board 2.1]

(Source: @WFNYScott on Twitter)