May 23, 2013

WFNY Stats & Info: Easiest roads to the Final Four

With Ohio State’s dramatic win over Arizona last night, I’m certain many of you are asking this question: Who else has played only 6 seeds or worse en route to a possible Final Four? As usual, I have the statistical research for the answer today.

Dating back to the start of the 64-team bracket style in 1985, there have been 116 regions including this year. Out of those 116 regional winners that then advanced to the Final Four, Ohio State would be the 11th winner that didn’t play a top-5 seed. Thus, on average, it occurs about every three years. Here’s the list thus far:

Year Region Seed Team W #1 W #2 W #3 W #4 Result?
1986 E. Rutherford 1 Duke 16 8 12 7 Runner-up
1990 Oakland 1 UNLV 16 8 12 11 Champion
1990 Dallas 4 Arkansas 13 12 8 10 Final 4
1991 E. Rutherford 1 N. Carolina 16 9 12 10 Final 4
1993 Seattle 1 Michigan 16 9 12 7 Runner-up
1999 E. Rutherford 1 Duke 16 9 12 6 Runner-up
2001 Atlanta 1 Mich. State 16 9 12 11 Final 4
2004 Phoenix 2 Connecticut 15 7 6 8 Champion
2008 Detroit 1 Kansas 16 8 12 10 Champion

 

I had previously tweeted that Kansas in 2008 was the last such team to accomplish this feat. Their most difficult opponent was a No. 8 seed in the second round, then won in the all 1-seed Final Four. Two other teams — 1991 North Carolina and 2001 Michigan State — didn’t play any teams ranked better than No. 9.

Oddly enough, these teams then went 7-3 in the national semifinals, followed by 3-4 in the championship game. Those numbers obviously are slightly better than just average.

Of course, many high-ranked seeds lost to low seeds en route to their hopeful Final Fours. So these are just the 10 success stories against easy schedules in the first 28 years of the 64-team bracket style.

Ohio State still has one difficult task en route to their second straight Final Four — that’s No. 9 Wichita State, the same one that took down No. 1 Gonzaga last weekend. The Shockers are now ranked #20 in Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency rankings and already had impressive wins over VCU and Creighton during the regular season.

[Related: LaQuintessential! Ross Sends Bucks To Elite 8 on Second Straight GW Shot]

The Diff: NCAA tournament Sweet 16 odds

Over the month of March, The Diff has been all about college basketball. First, it was the bubble odds, then an update of said bubble odds, and most recently, initial tournament odds. With the Buckeyes tipping off in the Sweet 16 tomorrow night in Los Angeles, I’m back with another round of updates today.

The Diff

On one side of the argument, it was an exciting weekend for upsets and the average college basketball fan. 15 Florida Gulf Coast shocked the world and their jump into the spotlight almost seems like it has to be a Hollywood script. The success of 9 Wichita State, 12 Oregon and 13 La Salle also has been a fun surprise for many, even if their brackets were busted. Which then brings me to the other side of the argument — the success of stat predictions. I warned last week that I’ve never been very good at brackets. And thus far, the stats have been way off. [Read more...]

WFNY Stats & Info: Elite 8 of NCAA tournament facts

There truly is no better time of the year than March Madness, right? Exactly. And that’s why today, after my spree of statistical #tournyhistory tweets @udjrosen last night, I’m here today at WFNY to share some notable facts as we enter the Sweet 16. Here you go with my Elite 8 of neat facts:

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No. 1: The 2 Ohio State-6 Arizona matchup will be the 27th between a 2-seed and a 6-seed since the tournament expanded to the 64-team format in 1985. In the previous 26 matchups, 2-seeds have a 20-6 record. This includes Ohio State’s victory over 6-seed Cincinnati in 2012.

No. 2: The 2013 tournament is the first ever with three 12-or-lower seeds to make the Sweet 16. (h/t @SportsCenter) In fact, a total of 15 teams seeded 9 or lower have made the Sweet 16 in the last four seasons. In the previous six, only 13 such teams had made the Sweet 16. Parity, eh?

No. 3: With three sub-12 seeds making the Sweet 16, I thought it’d be appropriate to rehash how these teams have done in this round: 1-25 (4%) all-time. Yikes. (More on this one win in a moment) It’s then significantly better for 10-11 seeds: 12-48 (20%). Logically, this would be because 12′s or 13′s historically are faced with a more daunting schedule in the regional semifinals.

No. 4: Now, the story of the tournament: the amazing 15-seed Florida Gulf Coast Eagles. They’re obviously the first-ever 15-seed to make the Sweet 16. All-time, since 1985, 15-seeds now have a 7-109 (6%) record in the first round. They’re now 1-6 (14%) in the second round.

No. 5: Keeping with FGCU: Surprisingly, per ESPN, 0.95% of brackets submitted to their website had the Eagles in the Sweet 16. As crazy high as that may seem, it might actually be about right. Out of 116 regions, this is the first 15-seed to make the Sweet 16. So 1/100 is approximately about right. Good job, America.

No. 6: Also a first in 2013: Our first ever matchup between a 9-13. The 9-seed Wichita State Shockers will play the 13-seed La Salle Explorers in Los Angeles for an Elite 8 berth. Lowest-ever seed to make an Elite 8? That would be a 12-seed, once: 2002 Missouri. With an easier than normal matchup, La Salle could break that record.

No. 7: Speaking of La Salle, they became the second First Four team to advance all the way to the Sweet 16. Of course, 11-seed VCU also accomplished that feat in 2011 all the way to the Final Four. Also including 12-seed South Florida’s first-round upset in 2012, that makes First Four winners a combined 7-5 in three seasons (thus far).

No. 8: Finally, a nod to the only 1-seed that bowed out over the weekend: Gonzaga. The ‘Zags have actually made it to 15 consecutive NCAA tournaments, but only appeared in one Elite 8. Their record by round: 13-2 in Round of 64; 5-8 in Round of 32; 1-4 in Sweet 16; 0-1 in Elite 8. As my friend Nate pointed out too, that lone Elite 8 was actually the first of these 15 years as a 10-seed in 1999.

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[Related: The Diff: Ohio State’s March Madness odds]

Animated: Aaron Craft sends Ohio State to the Sweet 16

It was the ultimate “No no no no no no… YES!” shot. Aaron Craft is not known to be a three point shooter. He wasn’t even going to be known as a free throw shooter much as he missed some of those down the stretch of this game. But, in this one time with this moment in front of him with a tie game, Aaron Craft stepped up, waved off his teammates and drained a three point shot with almost no time remaining.

Animated: Aaron Craft Drops It

[Related: Slammin’ Sammy: Buckeyes Crush Iona’s Will In Tourney Opener]

The Diff: Ohio State’s March Madness odds

As a reminder, The Diff is your weekly Wednesday look into the world of sports statistics. This week’s edition is already my 10th such post at WFNY. In last week’s edition, I shared some updates about the Cavs, Indians, NFL Draft and March Madness. Now, with the bracket set, I’m back again this week to discuss what it all means for the Ohio State Buckeyes.

The Diff

Some of you may know that I have a bit of a history with NCAA tournament projections. No, it doesn’t only go back to as far as my version of The Diff two weeks ago about NCAA tournament math. Nor does it merely go back to my days writing at my own blog called The Sports Report and featuring lots of college basketball content. In actuality, it goes back to as early as March 2007 and David Lee Morgan Jr.’s article about me in the Akron Beacon Journal. To make a long story short, however, for being a statistically minded person, I’m actually ended up being pretty awful at bracket predictions. [Read more...]

NCAA tourney primer with Kirk and TD – WFNY Podcast – 2013-03-20

WFNY Podcast LogoThe connection was a bit bad for a few moments as we all tried to figure out who was talking next, but it all got smoothed out pretty quickly. Kirk and TD are two of the more passionate NCAA hoops fans on the site and they wanted to lay out some storylines for the tourney.

  • Quick talk about Phil Dawson’s departure
  • TD and Kirk talk about Ohio State’s number 2 seeding
  • TD talks about Kansas and their draw
  • Which regions are the most brutal?
  • What are the most entertaining opening round games?
  • TD’s final four prediction
  • Kirk’s final four prediction
  • TD and his recommendation / final words on Ubaldo Jimenez

[Read more...]

The Diff: Cavs, Indians, NFL Draft and March Madness

Last week, I was all excited about the NCAA tournament and breaking down the bubble picture. I’ll have a little bit more March Madness today, but also wanted to share a few other stats-related sports thoughts about the Cavs, Indians and Browns. Hope you enjoy.

The Diff

– The Cavs’ much improved turnover ratio

While I’ve written about this topic several times already in the last month (here on 2/20, here on 2/26 and here on 3/2), I don’t think it’s still that clear to the average fan: The biggest in-season improvement for the Cavaliers has been in lowering their turnover rate. [Read more...]

The Diff: NCAA tournament bracket math

Hope you had fun reading through an abbreviated version of my thesis research on baseball attendance last week. I could talk about projected Cleveland Indians attendance numbers all day, especially with an Akron Aeros tie-in. Now, this week, we’re heading over to college basketball.

The Diff

March means madness. It’s one of the most fun sports times of the year. I’m personally a huge basketball fan, but when it’s do-or-die in the NCAA tournament, it’s perfect for any fan. But yet, I have an issue with the way bracket predictions are portrayed in the media. So I’ll cover today. And closest to home here in Northeast Ohio, we have the Akron Zips. In order to follow up on my Sunday article about their success, I’ll have a more thorough look at their NCAA odds today. Hope you enjoy. [Read more...]

TD talks March Madness, Tribe and Chris Perez – WFNY Podcast – 2013-03-06

WFNY Podcast LogoTD is out and about around the country like he normally is, but hotel rooms have Internet. So, we talked about some sports with TD in the shadow of Jerry Jones’ behemoth stadium.

Here’s a rundown…

  • Scott Raab and his episode of the podcast
  • Selective memory and what we remember
  • TD thought Damon Stoudamire was going to be a bust
  • Andy Marte and his history as a reliever
  • March Madness and the Final Four
  • TD thinks championship week is even better
  • A rotating cast of number ones in NCAA basketball
  • Wally Szczerbiak and the hero tourney storyline
  • Fantasy sports and Twitter
  • NCAA championship game start times
  • The Indians and the Sunday afternoon games
  • Getting “babysitter” credit for taking your kids to the baseball game
  • Daisuke Matsuzaka and his slow delivery
  • Carlos Carrasco starting the season with a five game suspension
  • Spring training game film and highlights
  • Fox Sports 1 is launching in August
  • Mark Cuban and being a regular guy
  • Attending the Masters
  • Chris Perez and the PED rumor talk on Twitter

[Read more...]

Despite loss, Akron Zips still an NCAA tournament threat

keith dambrotAll good things must come to an end eventually. And for the Mid-American Conference’s Akron Zips, that had to mean its 19-game winning streak, the longest of the 2012-13 college basketball season.

The run ended Saturday night at Buffalo, a tough setting in the past for Keith Dambrot’s teams. The Bulls built an early lead and expanded it in the second half, but unlike every game since Dec. 25, there was no miraculous last-minute run for 23-5 UA. The final scoreboard read 81-67 for the Bulls.

For many, the loss was half-disappointing and half-celebration-worthy. Obviously, the streak elevated the national stature of the Zips. They were ranked No. 24 in the USA Today Coaches’ Poll last week, the first ranked team in school history. Nearly every major sports outlet was writing about them too — from Sporting News to the front page of USA Today even to ESPN’s Dickie V.

But in a way, the loss was cleansing. There is now no more pressure. The unsung team gets a completely clean slate. And all that matters again are those NCAA tournament hopes. [Read more...]

College Basketball: Akron listed among 10 likely Cinderellas

Owning the longest winning streak in the nation, it’s about time the University of Akron Zips earned some national recognition.

Just before the Zips won their 18th straight game (tied for longest in men’s basketball this season) in Friday night’s unfortunate home BracketBuster matchup with North Dakota State, ESPN’s Jordan Brenner listed the team as the 10th most likely Cinderella candidate for March Madness. Brenner’s ranking utilized ESPN’s noted Giant Killer formula which hopes to emphasize key characteristics of mid-major schools that make them likely to upset some major-conference opponent in March.

Akron is now 22-4 overall and a perfect 12-0 in MAC play. Led by senior center Zeke Marshall (12.6 points, 6.8 rebounds, 3.5 blocks, 65.5% shooting), the team is hoping to make its third NCAA Tournament appearance in five years. They previously lost their first tournament games 77-64 to 4-seed Gonzaga in 2009 and 69-56 to 2-seed Notre Dame in 2011.

Keith Dambrot’s team also could find its way into the tournament as an at-large team. The only way it would be possible is if Akron wins its remaining four regular-season games, advances to the MAC finals (they’ve already clinched a bye until the semifinals), lose in a championship heart-breaker (again, a la 2007, 2010 and 2012), then receive some extraordinary outside help. As of Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology update, the Zips are listed as 13 seed yet only one team outside of the at-large demarcation line.

Next up on UA’s schedule: A rematch in Athens against defending MAC champion Ohio (20-7, 11-1). Akron won 86-72 in the first season matchup at the JAR on Feb. 2. The Bobcats were the clear-cut conference favorite, and only have that one conference loss, yet just got beat badly 81-62 at Belmont in a BracketBuster matchup on Saturday.

[Related: While We're Waiting... Keith Dambrot's sensational story]

While We’re Waiting… Keith Dambrot’s sensational story

While We’re Waiting serves as the early morning gathering of WFNY-esque information for your viewing pleasure. Have something you think we should see? Send it to our tips email at tips@waitingfornextyear.com.

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This was a great story. Another little-known fact in Keith Dambrot’s amazing journey? He coached my brothers’ Jewish Community Center CYO team in the late ’90s, just before latching on with LeBron James at St. V-M, then heading back to Akron. What a coach: “Dambrot is driven by routine and superstition, and these walks are driven by his desire to still be making them almost decade from now. He’s 54, and he signed a 10-year extension with his alma mater last summer. He’s come face to face with his coaching mortality once, and before he hands off the reigns at Akron he wants to continue to both figuratively raise the ceiling for the program and, sometime soon, literally stick the shovel in the ground for a new arena.” [Zac Jackson/FOX Sports Ohio] [Read more...]

Cleveland and Columbus awarded March Madness rounds in 2015

Cleveland, Ohio and Columbus, Ohio are two of the 25 cities awarded as preliminary round sites for the 2014 and 2015 Division I men’s basketball tournament, endeared to many as “March Madness.”

Tradition will continue on as Dayton, Ohio will host the “First Four” during both tournaments with the games being played at UD Arena. Cleveland and Columbus will host games during the 2015 tournament with Columbus playing host to the second and third rounds at Nationwide Arena, and Cleveland — represented by the Mid-American Conference — playing host to the Midwest Regional. These games will take place at Quicken Loans Arena. The other three regional sites will be Los Angeles, Houston and Syracuse.

“The bid process was as competitive as ever, with 53 cities expressing the desire to be a part of one of the world’s premier sporting events,” NCAA vice president of men’s basketball Dan Gavitt said via press release. “We are thrilled for our hosts for the ’14 and ’15 tournaments, as they include a mix of cities that have proven over the course of several decades how to stage this great event, as well as cities that have come on to the scene in recent years and have embraced the tournament.”

[Related:  Buckeyes Must Look To Defense, Team Effort To Contend For Title]

Buckeyes Squeeze Orange, Head To The Bayou For Final Four

From the time I began writing about this team in November, I saw a young Ohio State group very unsure of the team they wanted to be. With that doubt, I also saw loads of untapped potential. All season long, it was a constant struggle to get this team to perform up to its ability. Saturday night, however, The Ohio State Buckeyes realized their potential. They are going to the Final Four for the 11th time. OSU heads to New Orleans on the heels of a 77-70 victorious heavyweight bout with the Syracuse Orange.

The Orange pushed the Buckeyes to the brink, but Ohio State executed against the 2-3 zone, played physical down low at both ends, and hit enough free throws to put the game on ice. The Bucks survived being without their star for 14 minutes of the first half, and Sullinger delivered big-time in the second half to lead his Buckeyes to the second Final Four under Thad Matta. Just as Greg Oden didn’t do it alone in 2007, Sullinger, The Most Outstanding Player of the East Regional, had plenty of help.

I chose to feature Thad Matta in the photo above because of the incredible coaching job he did not just in this game, but all season, navigating this team through some trying times. It would’ve been easy for the Buckeyes to roll over and panic after Sullinger’s 2nd foul (in absolutely no way was that a foul) with 13:42 remaining gave them the rawest of deals. But, the Buckeyes got to the halftime buzzer with a 29-29 tie game because of some key bench performances from their reserve big men, Evan Ravenel and Amir Williams. The two combined for 6 points, 5 rebounds, and 2 blocks with Sullinger sitting on the bench. Ravenel picked up two fouls as well, so the freshman Williams was called upon for 9 key minutes. To Amir’s credit, the still green big man was not afraid of the moment. [Read more...]

March Madness in Ohio, tickets available through WFNY

First Four – Dayton

With conference tourney time just around the corner, that means one thing:  March Madness® is upon us.  More importantly, as Dayton plays host to the “First Four®,” play-in round of games at the University of Dayton Arena on March 13th & 14th, we have your chance to secure your tickets before Selection Sunday and the madness really starts.  Our partners at TiqIQ have teamed with PrimeSport, the official ticket reseller for the 2012 NCAA® Men’s Basketball Tournament, to bring you the best deals on officially-licensed tournament ticket inventory.  So click the link to get your own and keep it here with WFNY Tickets.

Columbus

As Columbus plays host to the 2nd and 3rd rounds at Nationwide Arena on March 16th & 18th, we have your chance to secure your tickets before Selection Sunday and the madness really starts.  Our partners at TiqIQ have teamed with PrimeSport, the official ticket reseller for the 2012 NCAA® Men’s Basketball Tournament, to bring you the best deals on officially-licensed tournament ticket inventory.  Last year the average price for round 2 & 3 action across all host cities was $171.64/ticket.  Right now, the average get-in price (i.e. lowest-priced ticket available) for all 3 sessions at Nationwide is $121.80; with tickets sure to climb click the link and get a great deal from the NCAA’s official ticket exchange.

NCAA and March Madness are trademarks of the National Collegiate Athletic Association

Ohio State Buckeyes Move Up to #5 in the Polls

When the polls were released last week, Ohio State’s men’s basketball team was 13-2, which was good enough to be ranked 7th in the ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll and 6th in the AP Top 25.  Two blowout wins against Nebraska (71-40) and Iowa (76-47) later and the Bucks moved to #5 in both polls.

In fact, the top five are unified in both polls for the time being.

  1. Syracuse
  2. Kentucky
  3. North Carolina
  4. Baylor
  5. Ohio State

The Buckeyes jumped Duke in the AP poll and both Duke and Missouri in the ESPN/USA Today poll.  Duke was hurt by a five point loss at the hands of Temple, while Missouri lost 75-59 to Kansas State.

The upcoming schedule could prove to be difficult for the Buckeyes as they head to Illinois and are back home to host Indiana.  Illinois is currently 14-3 (3-1 Big Ten) while the Hoosiers are 15-1 (3-1 Big Ten.) Of course Indiana also handed the Buckeyes a pretty tough four point loss on December 31st in Bloomington.

 

Buckeye Basketball Brief: Time for Thad to extend the bench

I’m far from the only person who thinks that Thad Matta should extend his bench. In fact, it’s a point that’s been discussed ad nauseaum by every analyst during the last two tourney runs and this season as well. However, the reason why I think Thad should play more Buckeyes might differ a little bit from popular opinion.

Last season, the Buckeyes were picked by many to win the NCAA Tournament. Regardless of whether or not people picked the Bucks, the common denominator was the sole identified weakness: depth. It’s not rocket science. With a lack of depth comes fatigue and the risk of foul trouble stinging that much more. Only while that was a constant risk for OSU, that was far from their downfall.

Does anyone honestly believe that depth played any significant role in the Buckeyes’ tournament loss last season to Kentucky? The Buckeyes ran into a young, talented Wildcat team that played one of their best games of the season. They matched up well with Ohio State (Josh Harrellson attacked Sullinger on the offensive end among other things), and as we’ve learned, the NCAA tournament is less about the best team winning and more about matchups, momentum, and a little bit of luck. Ohio State got a 2-for-16 shooting performance from William Buford and still had a shot in the air to win the game. In that game, Dallas Lauderdale logged five minutes and Deshaun Thomas played just three minutes. The rest was the unit of Craft, Diebler, Lighty, Buford, and Sullinger.

[Read more...]

WFNY Bracket Challenge – Sweet 16 Abounds

“Nobody cares about your bracket!” That has commonly been bandied about on Twitter, but it just isn’t true right here right now on this post.  This is where we absolutely care about your bracket.  We care so much that we have assigned not one, but two prizes for winners.  We still haven’t figured out something to give to the last place finisher (who also completely filled out the brackets) but we probably will.

I am happy to say that the bonus point structure is also causing a bit of chaos. The leader right now has gotten 34 of 48 picks correct, while second place has gotten 36 correct.  One of the two tied for third has 38 correct.  Picking those underdogs correctly pays!  Even I finally pulled myself out of the basement with a VCU win last night.  Make no mistake, I still have no chance at winning, but it still feels good to be in the 200s rather than the 300s.

Big day for the Big Ten, and a Bracket Challenge Update

The leader board will be a bit more relevant tomorrow once the field of sixteen is completely identified, but as of noon on Sunday here’s where we stand:
So nice work Techmohofer aka Nicholas C, 34 of 40 is pretty impressive so far.

Tough day yesterday though for our new last place title holder however, Go Cuse, who also has Pittsburgh winning it all.  I imagine he doesn’t like yesterday’s officiating crew all that much.

As a note, I am currently in 301st place, which is at least better than where I was after day one.  

A lot will be decided today though to be sure, especially for the Big Ten Basketball playing conference. 

There are four games today with Big Ten Teams involved, headlined obviously by the Ohio State Buckeyes tipping things off against George Mason this evening down at the Q. 

Those match-ups, estimated tip-times, point spreads, and a couple thoughts on each game are as follows: [Read more...]

WFNY Bracket Challenge Off Day Update

The first round is now officially in the books and the top ten is changing bit by bit.  Long gone is the thought of anyone getting everything right.  That being said, here is your top ten.  Rather than typing it all, I got lazy this time and took an image.

That’s right folks. Your “Commissioner” in this Yahoo! group is currently in 355th place. I stink.

We also have a new “Mr. Irrelevant” bringing up the rear. In 370th place is Va Beach 2. If you stink it up long enough, you just might get a prize for your (lack of) effort.

As always, you can check out the group here.