May 24, 2013

The Diff: Historical finishes for 26-18 MLB teams

May 22, 2013 by 13 Comments

The Diff is your weekly Wednesday WFNY look into the amazing world of sports statistics. For a complete log of articles, click this link. Last week, The Diff was on vacation in sunny Tybee Island, Georgia. Apologies for the lack of content. Now, we’re back this week with more MLB stats.

The Diff

In a roundabout way, your 2013 Cleveland Indians somehow sit in a very familiar position: a 26-18 record through 44 games. For those with a poignant memory, that’s exactly where the team was through 44 games in 2012, too, before embarking on one of the worst collapses in baseball history. Today, my plan is to look at what all of the 26-18 teams have done by perusing the deep, dark pages of the MLB record books. [Read more...]

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The Diff: Indians’ odd start and usual MLB run distribution

May 8, 2013 by 5 Comments

For my entire archive of The Diff at WFNY, click on this link. Last week, I wrote about historical expectations for regression to the mean in the NBA and how that relates to the 2013-14 Cleveland Cavaliers. This week, it’s back to baseball again.

The Diff

It’s been a strange start to the season for the Cleveland Indians, eh? Although the team is 16-14 and now performing better than or slightly around preseason expectations, it’s taken a wild ride to get here. There was the 8-13 start and now the 8-1 rally. But more significantly, it’s been a peculiar offensive run distribution that has made each coming game quite the surprise. [Read more...]

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The Diff: Regression to the mean and the Cavaliers

May 1, 2013 by 6 Comments

For my entire archive of The Diff at WFNY, check out this tag. Last week’s edition tackled an aggregate of 60 mock drafts from around the Internet, which obviously didn’t prove that fruitful when the Browns took Barkevious Mingo (projected by only 3 mock drafts). Oh well.

The Diff

Back in my second-ever version of The Diff, on Jan. 23, I wrote over 3,000 words on six specific franchise comparisons for the current iteration of the Cleveland Cavaliers. Obviously, much has been written here at WFNY and elsewhere since about the hopeful trajectory of the Cavs organization, especially with the re-addition of head coach Mike Brown. Today, I’ll hope to share even more analytics behind previous NBA rebuilds and some statistics behind their variability. [Read more...]

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The Diff: Cleveland Browns mock draft analysis

April 24, 2013 by 6 Comments

For my entire archive of The Diff at WFNY, check out this tag. Again, last week’s topic covered baseball attendance in April and sellout streaks. Now, it’s NFL Draft talk time.

The Diff

Yesterday, I wrote a teaser for a mock draft database that I was compiling. At the time, I had a sample of 50 mock drafts from around the Internet. Many were awful, as some of you dutifully pointed out in the WFNY comments.

So now, I’ve cleaned things up quite a bit and expanded my mock draft list. There are now 60 mock drafts in my database. And today, as a special treat for you, I’ll share a link to the spreadsheet and provide some analysis on what it all means for your Cleveland Browns on Thursday.

Click here to view WFNY’s Mock Draft Database in a locked Google spreadsheet. [Read more...]

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The Diff: Baseball attendance in April, sellout streaks

April 17, 2013 by 4 Comments

Last week’s version of The Diff was tremendous fun as we journeyed through the land of quality starts in baseball. With the Indians’ back-and-forth 5-7 start to the season, that post likely remains incredibly relevant. Now, we stick with the same sport but head to something more external: April attendance.

The Diff

Attendance is always a topical theme in the world of baseball at the beginning of the season. Once the facade of a boisterous Opening Day sellout is lifted, columnists and fans peel back the harsh reality of battling the frigid cold for half-decent attendance figures at the ballpark. Heck, in a sense, that’s exactly why I dedicated The Diff back on Feb. 27 to the topic of Indians attendance (and market saturation). I saw this complaint coming early in 2013. But yet, there’s still a need for much more context in this debate. And that’s why I’m back for more attendance talk today. [Read more...]

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The Diff: On quality starts and the Indians bad pitching

April 10, 2013 by 16 Comments

It’s always amazing when last week’s topic is just as timely a week later. I’d encourage everyone to check out last week’s edition of The Diff on the Cavs and their second-half failures of late. This week’s topic: Quality starts and how it relates to the Indians’ awful 2012.

The Diff

By now, you’re probably quite distressed with the Cleveland Indians season so far. You witnessed a solid start to the season in Toronto, then back-to-back shoutouts in Tampa Bay, followed now by back-to-back pitching disasters at home against the beat-up New York Yankees. It’s already getting ugly in Wahoo Town, as TD wrote earlier this morning. Yet, if you paid much attention during the 2012 Indians season, this should all seem quite familiar. Today, I’ll dive in-depth into the 2012 American League and the quality starts statistic. It should be fun 1 . [Read more...]

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  1. in a statistical way, because the “WFNY” mentality and really bad pitching is not necessarily actually fun [back]

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The Diff: Byron Scott, blown leads and the second-half Cavs

April 3, 2013 by 28 Comments

Last week in The Diff, I brought you inside the numbers of the Sweet 16. With no more March and no more college basketball for Ohio sports fans, it’s time to move back to the pros. Although the current excitement surrounds the Tribe’s Opening Day win, I’m back for Cavs talk today.

The Diff

During the Cleveland Cavaliers’ ongoing season-high eight-game losing streak, much of the media talk has been directed toward head coach Byron Scott’s future with the organization. I covered the beginning of the talk about 10 days ago. Anonymous players then shared their frustrations with the Akron Beacon Journal’s Jason Lloyd over the weekend. And our very own Scott threw his hat into the ring on Monday. But looming large in these murmurs is this largely unreported fact: The 2012-13 Cavaliers are currently the worst third-quarter and second-half team in the National Basketball Association. By far. [Read more...]

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The Diff: NCAA tournament Sweet 16 odds

March 27, 2013 by 2 Comments

Over the month of March, The Diff has been all about college basketball. First, it was the bubble odds, then an update of said bubble odds, and most recently, initial tournament odds. With the Buckeyes tipping off in the Sweet 16 tomorrow night in Los Angeles, I’m back with another round of updates today.

The Diff

On one side of the argument, it was an exciting weekend for upsets and the average college basketball fan. 15 Florida Gulf Coast shocked the world and their jump into the spotlight almost seems like it has to be a Hollywood script. The success of 9 Wichita State, 12 Oregon and 13 La Salle also has been a fun surprise for many, even if their brackets were busted. Which then brings me to the other side of the argument — the success of stat predictions. I warned last week that I’ve never been very good at brackets. And thus far, the stats have been way off. [Read more...]

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The Diff: Ohio State’s March Madness odds

March 20, 2013 by 7 Comments

As a reminder, The Diff is your weekly Wednesday look into the world of sports statistics. This week’s edition is already my 10th such post at WFNY. In last week’s edition, I shared some updates about the Cavs, Indians, NFL Draft and March Madness. Now, with the bracket set, I’m back again this week to discuss what it all means for the Ohio State Buckeyes.

The Diff

Some of you may know that I have a bit of a history with NCAA tournament projections. No, it doesn’t only go back to as far as my version of The Diff two weeks ago about NCAA tournament math. Nor does it merely go back to my days writing at my own blog called The Sports Report and featuring lots of college basketball content. In actuality, it goes back to as early as March 2007 and David Lee Morgan Jr.’s article about me in the Akron Beacon Journal. To make a long story short, however, for being a statistically minded person, I’m actually ended up being pretty awful at bracket predictions. [Read more...]

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The Diff: Cavs, Indians, NFL Draft and March Madness

March 13, 2013 by Leave a Comment

Last week, I was all excited about the NCAA tournament and breaking down the bubble picture. I’ll have a little bit more March Madness today, but also wanted to share a few other stats-related sports thoughts about the Cavs, Indians and Browns. Hope you enjoy.

The Diff

– The Cavs’ much improved turnover ratio

While I’ve written about this topic several times already in the last month (here on 2/20, here on 2/26 and here on 3/2), I don’t think it’s still that clear to the average fan: The biggest in-season improvement for the Cavaliers has been in lowering their turnover rate. [Read more...]

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The Diff: NCAA tournament bracket math

March 6, 2013 by 11 Comments

Hope you had fun reading through an abbreviated version of my thesis research on baseball attendance last week. I could talk about projected Cleveland Indians attendance numbers all day, especially with an Akron Aeros tie-in. Now, this week, we’re heading over to college basketball.

The Diff

March means madness. It’s one of the most fun sports times of the year. I’m personally a huge basketball fan, but when it’s do-or-die in the NCAA tournament, it’s perfect for any fan. But yet, I have an issue with the way bracket predictions are portrayed in the media. So I’ll cover today. And closest to home here in Northeast Ohio, we have the Akron Zips. In order to follow up on my Sunday article about their success, I’ll have a more thorough look at their NCAA odds today. Hope you enjoy. [Read more...]

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The Diff: Market saturation and Indians attendance

February 27, 2013 by 20 Comments

In last week’s edition of The Diff, I shared a number of statistical notes about the streaking Cleveland Cavaliers. This week, I’m covering a topic I’ve been trying to get to for a while, but is perfect for right now: Cleveland Indians attendance.

The Diff

Cleveland Indians attendance is a topical news item this week. Firing right off the Nick Swisher arrival and the surprise signing of Michael Bourn, the Indians unveiled their new promotional schedule and then sold out of Opening Day tickets in six minutes on Monday. Excitement about the Tribe is as palpable this February as it’s been in the last decade — save maybe for right after ’07′s surprising playoff run. And that brings people to the age-old question: Will it show up in the ticket booths? Fortunately, I’m here to help — as I teased in Monday’s podcast. [Read more...]

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The Diff: Cavalier notes on Tristan, turnovers, trades, etc

February 20, 2013 by 8 Comments

Thanks so much to all of our WFNY readers (even my friend Terry Pluto) for sharing, liking and commenting on last week’s edition of The Diff about Michael Bourn. I’m heading back to basketball this week to share an assortment of thoughts as the team begins the second half tonight.

The Diff

Tristan Thompson’s progress

One of my favorite new Twitter friends is Ed Manly over at @laughingcavs. I only discovered his account and tremendous website after he responded to me about some Tristan Thompson stats-post Anderson Varejao’s injury. So it’s only fitting that the first time I reference him here at WFNY that it’s again about my favorite-ever Cavalier Canadian 1 . [Read more...]

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  1. For the record, I checked: The only other Canadian Cavalier I could find is Stewart Granger, the 24th pick in the 1983 Draft who played one season in Cleveland. [back]

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The Diff: Debunking myths about Michael Bourn

February 13, 2013 by 30 Comments

Last week’s edition of The Diff was a fun little side project on young NBA guards and high usage rates. It wasn’t exactly the biggest conversation-starter, however. So let’s change that with the hot topic du jour: Michael Bourn.

The Diff

It’s an exciting time to be an Indians fan. And we should cherish that. Not often in the last 10 years has there been so much fever about the Cleveland Indians in February. And no matter what happens, that’s something to be recognized and valued. Yet there certainly are a lot of myths out there about Monday night’s incredible signing of Michael Bourn. So let’s get to work. [Read more...]

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The Diff: Young guards and high usage rates

February 6, 2013 by 4 Comments

Thanks for indulging me with our little strikeout side trip last week. Now, I’m back at it with more basketball stats craziness. Hope you enjoy.

The Diff

In my first-ever edition of The Diff, I wrote about the potential of new All-Star Kyrie Irving. It started with a simple question: “Will Irving ever be a top 10 player in the NBA?” That specific topic aside, there were some deep basketball stats questions I brought up with my brother Sam in our chat. These questions revolved around usage rate, field goal attempts per 36 minutes and all-encompassing metrics such as PER. I’m back this week to dive deeper into this intense stats world. [Read more...]

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The Diff: Cleveland Indians embrace the strikeout

January 30, 2013 by 17 Comments

Changing the topic this week back to my original favorite sport, baseball. Thanks again to all for your really positive feedback on last week’s edition on franchise-building in the NBA.

The Diff

“The best way to improve your team is to score more runs and allow fewer runs. I’m not as concerned at how we do it, but our focus is to score more and allow fewer.” Those were the inspiring words of Cleveland Indians general manager Chris Antonetti in an AP story on Dec. 12. Yet, despite that pretty elementary proclamation, all it seems anyone wants to talk about this offseason is strikeouts. [Read more...]

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The Diff: Franchise comparisons for the Cavaliers

January 23, 2013 by 26 Comments

Thanks to all for your really positive feedback about my first-ever edition of The Diff last week about Kyrie Irving’s potential. I’m back today with more talk about the Cavs. Hope you enjoy yet again.

The Diff

For weeks and weeks, one of my favorite NBA topics has been exploring and researching possible franchise comparisons for the Cavaliers and where they stand right now. I believe my mini-obsession with this topic started with Andrew’s excellent article last month titled “Is There Any Hope Beneath the Frustration for the Cavaliers?” This post really got my stats-focused brain a-churning. [Read more...]

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The Diff: Kyrie Irving’s potential

January 16, 2013 by 8 Comments

Today marks the start of a new era: The Diff, where I’ll write lots and lots about sports stats. Kudos to friend and fantasy football semifinalist Marc Sugerman for coming up with the article name, a shoutout to the Q’s scoreboard. And thanks as always to Mike Brenkus for the design.

The Diff

For my first-ever edition of The Diff, I wanted to focus on some thoughts I had about Kyrie Irving over the last week or so. This all started after the Cavs’ impressive 99-83 victory over the Hawks a week ago today. I was at that game with my dad. But the following conversation took place the next day on Gchat with my brother Sam, who you all might recall from our combined offseason post back in June. Hope you enjoy. [Read more...]

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