How to Think about the Browns' QB Room Right Now

The Cleveland Browns have a quarterback situation... again... in 2025, the year of our Lord. Thankfully, I'm not talking at all about Deshaun Watson, except to say he's essentially not in the picture. And I'm also not saying it's a mess per se. It's not a great situation like they have in Cincinnati or Baltimore where they have unimpeachable starters that they will ride or die with. As much as I hate Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers, considering the contract he was willing to accept to play there, you have to feel like the Steelers QB situation is a bit better than the Browns' heading into the year as well. But considering the boondoggle that I took off the table, I'm feeling pretty good about the Browns' plan this year in terms of raising the floor from what it was last year, while there are some longshot chances they could solve their quarterback issues. Still, the narratives around the Browns' QBs are driving me a bit crazy, because I find a lot of the expectations to be unrealistic.

The Rookie Reality: High Ceilings, Low Probability

The Browns have two rookies in the quarterback room, and that's where I'd like to begin. The further we go along into minicamps and now OTAs, the more confusing it seems that the Browns overdrafted Dillon Gabriel. He seems like a great kid with talent, but thanks to his miniscule NFL size, even if I'm being as gracious and hopeful as possible, it seems almost unanimous that the Browns didn't need to take him there. Again, judging just by the standards of practice without pads, the early reviews of Shedeur Sanders are at least enough to indicate he's probably got a much higher ceiling than Dillon Gabriel. He's come off mature in interviews, and showed his physical abilities as much as you can in simulated football. But rookies are rookies!

I've been hearing people say that Sanders could win the job in training camp. While it's possible, I feel like many Browns fans aren't realistic in terms of probabilities. Could it happen? Yes. But should you bet on it or spend a lot of time talking about it? Probably not. And if the Browns truly like either of their rookies and they want to maximize their potential as players for their entire careers, do you think it might be part of their plan to protect them by not playing them right away?

The Browns being the Browns have had to play rookies at quarterback time and again since 1999. From Couch to Colt, and Manziel, Weeden to Kessler and Kizer. The Browns have found ways to "see what they have in" their rookie quarterbacks to their utmost detriment. Everyone would love to find the next Brock Purdy, of course, but that's some crazy luck, and he only got a chance once Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance got hurt. Point being, that if your hopes and dreams, or the team's plans revolve around a 3rd round or 5th round rookie QB winning the job over guys with real NFL experience, it should make you question the front office and coaching staff.

The Veteran Bridge: Pickett's Redemption Arc, Flacco's Steady Hand

The Browns have planned far more pragmatically. With Kenny Pickett, you've got a former first-round quarterback who is fighting for his NFL future after washing out with Pittsburgh and going through a year on the bench with the Eagles. However, in this Browns quarterback room, he's still a young guy with 25 games of starter experience in the league. For the Browns, they hope he's the next Sam Darnold, who played the best football of his career in Minnesota after escaping the Jets, and having stops in Carolina and a bench job in San Francisco for a year. In his age-27 season, Darnold helped Minnesota go 14-3 sitting in that cockpit. Can Kenny Pickett do that too? You shouldn't bet on it, but after being on a winning Super Bowl team, and entering a QB-friendly offense where the team drafted two potential star running backs, there's a chance. All indications out of Berea are that the Browns are giving Kenny Pickett the first opportunity to show he can be that for them. Again, it's shorts season, but the Browns are giving Pickett the first reps.

That brings us finally to Joe Flacco. That man has nothing to prove. His best days are behind him, but he should still be able to deliver organization, competence, and throw the hell out of the ball. He's been getting fewer reps in camp, and that makes sense. He's the most known quantity of anyone in the quarterback room right now. He probably has the best chance to be the Browns' starter to begin the season, and as we all know, the Browns could do far worse. However, it would be incredibly great for the Browns if someone who has some runway left in their career pushes Flacco into backup duty.

Handicapping the Competition: Who Starts, and What's the Likelihood?

If I really want to make sense of this, I'd like to think of it in two categories. Who is the team going to preference in terms of giving the first team reps, and giving the best chance, and then what percent chance I think they actually have to win the job.

Kenny Pickett: The team would love the Sam Darnold experience. 30% chance of winning the job.

Joe Flacco: The team doesn't want to start rookies Week One. 40% chance of winning the job.

Dillon Gabriel: The team doesn't want to start a rookie, and they drafted him higher. He'll get better reps at first, but it might not last. 10% chance of winning the job.

Shedeur Sanders: The team doesn't want him to start right away. 20% chance of winning the job.

Now, you can play with the percentages and say Gabriel only has a 5% chance and Sanders only has a 10% chance, but those types of alterations are mostly meaningless to me. I'm simply handicapping how I think the dynamics are between all the candidates.

The Marathon, Not the Sprint

I still think Kenny Pickett finds a way to "win" the job and is the opening day starter for the Browns. Why? He's not completely incompetent. He's younger than Flacco. The Browns won't want to throw rookies into the fire against the Bengals, Ravens, and Packers, not to mention the Lions in Week 4, and the Vikings in Week 5. They can go to Flacco at any point, but the earlier you go to a 40-year-old, the faster you use him up.

If the Browns know anything, it's that there's a high likelihood that three or more quarterbacks will be under center for them at various points this season. They're going to manage the marathon, and not force a sprint out of the gates on their way to a likely sevenish wins.