Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics – August 12
A Major League Baseball team that loses ten straight games during the season shouldn’t be in the playoff hunt.
And yet…
A team that trades its ace at the deadline shouldn’t be in the playoff hunt.
And yet…
A team that loses a starting pitcher and its all-world closer to a league-mandated suspension shouldn’t be in the playoff hunt.
And yet, and yet, and yet.
The Cleveland Guardians are having a strange season, but since July that strangeness is finally pointing in their direction. A once insurmountable divisional deficit is now less than the number of remaining games against Detroit. The club is one good weekend away from laying claim to a wild card spot. All this has come despite what we can describe as “unflattering” season statistics.
Runs per game – 3.98
13th in AL, 26th overall
The Guardians’ offense has come alive in the past six weeks, but their batting deficiencies were so cavernous in the first half of the season that the club is still near the very bottom of the overall rankings. Not so coincidentally, their total runs (466) have the exact same rankings and are 149 runs behind the major league best Dodgers’ 615.
Stolen Bases – 88
6th in AL, 13th overall
The Guardians seem to have rediscovered “Guards Ball” a little more in the second half and remembered they like to run. Tampa Bay leads all baseball with 151 swipes while the Detroit Tigers are curiously the least thieving club with only 51 steals on the year. With few hits to work with, any time a steal can stretch a single into a double, the better off Cleveland will be.
Batting average - .228
15th in AL, 30th overall
In the scope of the whole season, Cleveland is not hitting. Their .228 average is tied with the White Sox for dead last in MLB. It’s worse than the Rockies. So why doesn’t it seem to matter? For one thing, the Guardians have left only 757 men on base which is fourth best in all of baseball and much better than Toronto’s league worst 875. If there are fewer hits, but they’re all timely, is that enough to get to 90+ wins?
ERA – 3.83
6th in AL, 11th overall
The pitching has finally come around for the Forest City. The pitching staff’s ERA is down to 3.83 on the season which is not terribly far behind the league-leading Rangers’ 3.30 earned run average. Comparably, the team is allowing 4.15 runs per game which is a room full of Bob Fellers compared to Colorado’s dismal 6.51.
Saves – 35
T-1st in AL, T-2nd overall
This stat is a little tricky considering Emmanual Clase’s suspension, but closer by committee has been effective enough since he was forced to step away from the team. Since the suspension was announced, Hunter Gaddis has a pair of saves, Nic Enright has one, and Cade Smith has two as well. It remains to be seen if one reliever will distinguish himself enough to become the go-to guy down the stretch, but it’s essential that Cleveland keep any and every ninth inning lead they may hold.
Third Baseman WAR – 2.6
1st in AL, 1st overall
WAR is not the most perfect stat ever, but it nicely helps us remember that Jose Ramirez is just an incredible player. His 2.6 WAR is a tick above San Francisco’s Matt Chapman and his 2.4 mark. In fact, Jose is one of only two CLE players with a positive WAR. You won’t need many guesses to figure out the other – Steven Kwan and his 1.1 WAR ranks as the sixth best left fielder in baseball.
The 2025 Guardians are a live experiment to answer the question – is it enough if the whole is greater than the sum of its parts? Based on runs scored and allowed, Baseball-Reference’s Pythagorean W-L has this team at 56-61 which shows how close the margin can be between victory and defeat. By most metrics this should be a lost season. And yet…