WaitingForNextYear

I came up with this idea for a series of guest blogger spots over a week ago. When it first came to me the Indians were in second place behind the Twins. Then they swept the A’s to take over first. Now, it’s the White Sox turn at the top. With all these teams bunched together the A.L. Central is wide open, with no team out of it. We asked bloggers from each team to tell us why their team WILL WIN the A.L. Central. Most of them replied reluctantly, because the baseball in the Central just hasn’t been that good this year. Up next is Clark from Royals Authority. (Part 1 was the Tigers.)

I know, even as a lifelong Kansas City Royals fan, that headline makes me smirk. Next year, I might really think that and definitely expect to believe the Royals will win in 2010, but this year?  C’mon. 

Well, what was supposed to be a juggernaut A.L. Central division has spent the first six weeks of the season doing its best impression of the usually mediocre N.L. Central. The Royals, despite being two games under .500, find themselves just two and on-half games out of first place. So, it really does beg the question:  can Kansas City win the Central? Here’s some reason why it could happen. 

The Greinke Factor

Zack Greinke was an ace waiting to happen when he came up at the ripe old age of twenty back in 2004. Since then, Greinke has endured a 17 loss season, a bout with psychological issues that drove him from the game for part of 2006 and forced a subsequent return to the minors, and even an extended stay in the bullpen. Now, however, Zack (all of 24 now) has the second best ERA in the league and his worst start was three runs allowed over six innings. He is an ace and when you have an ace, you effectively eliminate long losing streaks. 

Joakim Soria is the Next Jonathan Papelbon

Sixteen innings pitched, four hits allowed, one walk and eighteen strikeouts. That is the statistical line for Royals’ closer Joakim Soria. He comes out of the pen with four pitches (maybe five) and the outright belief that he will succeed. In his last appearance, Soria struck out one hitter on an 83 mph changeup that moved across AND down through the strike zone. Then, he struck out the next hitter with a 68 mph curveball before inducing the final out (a comebacker to the mound) with a 92 mph fastball. Oh, by the way, Soria’s two setup men (Leo Nunez and Ramon Ramirez) have combined to throw 35 innings, allow just 24 hits, walk 9 and strike out 35 batters. When the Royals lead late, they win.    

Gil Meche and the Rest of the Rotation

Last season, Gil Meche posted a 3.67 ERA in 216 innings of work. He pretty much was in the top ten of every relevant starting pitcher category there was. So far in 2008, Meche has a 5.98 ERA over his first nine starts. He is and will be better than that.

Brian Bannister nearly won rookie-of-the-year honors last season and is off to a 4-4 start with a 3.75 ERA. He’s better (not Cliff Lee better), but better than last season and matches up with any number three starter in the league…well, except for Cliff Lee. Luke Hochevar, a former number one pick, has posted a 3-2 record in his first five starts with an ERA just under four. That instantly makes him the best number five starter the Royals have had in the last fifteen years. He is a rookie and almost certain to continue to get better. Yeah, Brett Tomko is the number four starter and strikes fear in no one, but this is still a very good starting rotation.  One that will seldom dig their team into an early hole and hence, one that almost always gives the Royals at least a chance to win. 

The Offense Can’t Be This Bad

The Royals rank 29^th in baseball in runs scored and dead last in the American League, where they trail the next worst team by 16 runs. They average just 3.7 runs per game, which is almost impossible to do over the course of a 162 game schedule.

Jose Guillen just got his batting average over .200 for the first time just last week, but has the track record to indicate doubles and homers should be coming in bunches. Second year players Alex Gordon and Billy Butler are almost universally considered to be stars in the making and hence, likely to increase their production as the season progresses. Additionally, the Royals played the first three weeks of the season minus their leadoff hitter, David DeJesus. Although no superstar, DeJesus is a steady hitter who scored over 100 runs last year. Bottom line, the Royals are not going to become a dominant offense anytime soon, but one can make the reasonable assumption that they might well start averaging over 4 runs per game. Given their solid pitching, that might well be enough to make this team a consistent winner. 

Stranger Things Have Happened

Back in 2003, Kansas City was in the divisional hunt on September 1^st and did so with a team far inferior to this one. They play good defense, pitch consistently well and really have the potential to improve almost across the board as the season goes on. A young team, the Royals could collapse, too.  Gil Meche and Jose Guillen may never ‘get right’. Greinke could implode, Soria could get injured and Alex Gordon could strike out 150 times. Still, exactly the opposite could happen. Young teams and optimistic rookie managers (of which Trey Hillman is certainly one) sometimes believe they are better than they should be. In baseball, believing is half the battle. 

Will the Royals win the Central?  Probably not, but two and one-half games out of a division that no one seems to want to win makes it a possibility. 

You’ll Know the Royals Have A Chance When..

We reach the All-Star Break and the following has happened: 

• Zack Greinke has made the All-Star team…and not just because everyone has to have a representative

• Gil Meche’s earned run average is below 4.25.

• Jose Guillen has 14 homers

• Alex Gordon is still hitting third in this lineup and leads the team in RBI.

• You regularly see a Royals’ highlight on Sports Center.