WaitingForNextYear

By now you know the idea. We start talking through Gmail (just waiting for google wave!) and eventually we share it with you.

Rick: Question- the Bucks trade is being reported as a salary saving move, allowing them to go after their own free agents. Then they pick up Amir Johnson. Does that mean anything for Charlie Villanueva? Could the Bucks pass on Charlie and focus on signing Sessions?

Jacob: Eh they just swapped Oberto for Amir Johnson. I would do that in a rush any day of the week, and I wouldn’t truly read too much into at. At 22 years old, Johnson is a decent player but couldn’t immediately jump in to start ahead of aging veterans Francisco Elson and Kurt Thomas at the power forward position for Milwaukee. They desperately need to extend Charlie V if they have any desire to compete this season. Johnson would be a good bench player in replace of Villanueva and starting center Andrew Bogut, but nothing more as of yet.

TD: Amir Johnson is hot garbage. He was handed a starting job last year in Detroit and proved he is mentally and physically soft and was out of the rotation by mid-year. He also has two years left on his deal. Detroit gets a savvy veteran who plays smart in Oberto who is a free agent at the end of the year.

Rick: If that’s the case, and Charlie wants to stay in Milwaukee (although I’m not entirely certain of that) doesn’t this change the Cavs’ approach to Anderson Varejao? Don’t you think Ferry and co. had in the back of their minds Charlie V. as plan to Andy? (As an aside, I checked out Charlie V’s twitter to see his response to the trade. I’m just not convinced he wants to stay in Buck-town.)

Denny: The Bucks have to focus on either Sessions or CV, and it’s hard to say which one they’ll focus on. Honestly, I don’t know how much I would like a CV signing. I know we’ve got a dearth in the frontcourt but I’d almost rather see the Cavs try and make a play at someone’s first rounder and get a big that can bang down low. I don’t think another finesse big is the way to go. Having another shooting guard would be OK, since Pavs and Boobie are nonexistent most of the time. But to go after someone like CV? We can do better.

Craig: I like CV and I think he would be a great addition to the team, but how can the Cavs do it? Can they make that work with their MLE? Financially it seems like CV would get too rich a deal for the Cavs to just be able to go out and sign him in their current cap situation. For CV and players like him are we looking at sign and trades as our main option?

Denny: Yea I was thinking if the Cavs were to get CV it’d have to be a sign and trade. However, one name that hasn’t been put out there as a free agent, who is basically Andy but much, much, much more athletic is the Birdman. He’s looking at MLE type money, and I’d rather have him than CV. He played extremely well in the playoffs.

Rick: The point is I don’t think that is an option anymore. Doesn’t Varejao’s agent know that unless they make a major trade, the Cavs absolutely have to resign Andy? And with Gilbert’s constant claims that he is willing to spend luxury tax dollars, wouldn’t you drive the price up?

Jacob: I entirely agree with your assessment Denny, a miraculous concept considering our typically different sports minds. But I believe that Villanueva will not solve all of our problems because absolutely best case scenario, he is scoring 16 points per game and merely attempting to defend Rashard Lewis of the Magic. If I am Milwaukee’s GM though, you would have to think it would be hard to pass up on the point guard depth in this year’s draft. With Ty Lawson, Brandon Jennings, Tyreke Evans, Jrue Holiday, and Johnny Flynn all possibly available at the tenth pick, their chances are pretty good at landing someone with a bigger and more promising pedigree than Sessions.

Craig: Other GM’s aren’t going to step up and make an offer for Andy if they think the Cavs are DEFINITELY going to match. That is what happened to Andy last time until his agent finally got someone willing to make an offer. GM’s aren’t going to be waiting in line to just gouge Cleveland for the sake of making an offer to a player that they won’t ultimately get anyway assuming the Cavs are in a position where they can’t lose Andy.

Rock: The only way I see the Cavs getting Charlie V is by doing a sign and trade. But that was always going to tricky. If the Bucks are over the cap, and Charlie V gets a 20% raise on his new deal (and I think it’s safe to say he’ll make more than $4,137,660 on his new contract), then he becomes a Base Year Compensation player and his trade value is 50% of his actual contract. Which means the Bucks aren’t going to get anything of value in return from the Cavs. And if that’s the case, why trade him? They can always just let him walk and sign somewhere else. So, I would say there’s no question Ferry has been keeping his eye on what Milwaukee is doing, but getting Charlie V is gonna be iffy.

I don’t think Ferry has any choice but to re-sign AV pretty much for whatever he wants. The Cavs have no leverage here. They have no backup plan, and no readily available replacement player that they can sign. They have AV’s Bird Rights, so they can exceed the cap to sign him, and Dan Fegan knows this.

Craig: Let’s hope Andy makes another step forward in his offense this year then. Did I really just have to type that?

Rick: Andy has been considered a role player all his career until this season. What do you see his role as on this team next year? Is he a starter? Won’t that effect the money the Cavs will have to pony up?

TD: Andy is at his best off the bench as a role player. I know we all love him, but he is a glue guy. For example: Imagine if we had Boozer at the 4 with Andy spelling Z and Boozer off the bench. That’s when he is at his best.

Craig: I agree TD, but do you (or Ferry) have the balls to keep yourself from overspending on this guy? Assuming the only option is to over-pay or let him walk, do you think the Cavs have the balls to do the right thing? Is it the right thing? Signing guys for more than they are worth even if you need them screams of desperation and rarely leads to organizational success, right? Weren’t we just wrinkling our noses at Michael Redd’s deal even though he is a great player?

Denny: Yea I agree. I know that Ben Wallace was a one-dimensional starter back in the day for Detroit, but they only needed him to be one-dimensional. The Cavs need more out of their 4, and Andy’s not as good at defense as Ben was (and he’s not that good at offense). The only real place that he shines on offense is in the pick and roll game with LeBron. That’s something just about anybody could do, to be honest.

Rock: I think you can be both a starter and a role player, but in AV’s case, I still think he serves the team best when he’s coming off the bench. But Andy has so many intangibles that would be tough for the Cavs to replace if he leaves. Whether he is starting or coming off the bench, the Cavaliers are a better team with him than without him. But to specifically answer Rick’s question, I think he will be starting again next season. I just don’t believe the Cavs are going to get a better 4 before the start of the season. I hope I’m wrong, though.

It all depends on what Andy can really get on the open market. The Pistons really scare me. I can see Dumars driving up Andy’s price. I know they have bigger fish to fry, but they have real cap space and are a team that knows first hand what Andy can all bring to the table. If Andy can get $10 million somewhere else, Ferry will have to (or, at least, he had better) let him go. Is $8 million overspending for Andy? Probably. But I would have no problem with Ferry signing him in that range.

TD: I hear ya Craig – it all depends on what Ferry can come up with. If someone offers Andy a four year, $40 million deal, does Ferry match it? If he has nothing in the works, he has no choice. Letting Andy walk leaves him with Z, Ben Wallace (either both are close to, or are done), Hickson (not ready) and Jackson (nothing more than a role player).

Rock: I think if Andy waits until next year to become a free agent, he will have 2 factors working against him. One, the salary cap has a good chance of being even smaller, thus limiting his value on the open market. And secondly, there’s a much bigger chance of him being lost in the shuffle next year. With so many great players available next year, he will not be anyone’s priority to re-sign. So I think there’s a very good chance he opts out this year.