Asdrubal Cabrera Returns to Indians Lineup
June 28, 2009While We’re Waiting… NBA Free Agency, Shaq and Portland, and Berea’s QB Decision
June 29, 2009
WFNY readers have been wondering how the Magic’s acquisition of Vince Carter changes the team that ousted the Cavaliers in six games. The Magic pulled this trade off with the Nets on Thursday afternoon hours after the Cavs completed the Shaq deal. Carter, who grew up in nearby Daytona Beach, will definitely be returning to his home with gas in his tank. He will be 33 years old next year and averaged around a 20-5-5 in 36 minutes with the Nets last year. He will make $16.3MM next season and $17.3MM in 2010-11 with a team option for a third year. What does Carter mean for the remaining offseason of the Magic and what will he provide on the floor next year for a team that hit its stride this spring?
The most immediate impact of the Carter trade will be felt in the Magic’s attempted negotiations with Hedo Turkoglu. Hedo officially exercised his opt out clause this week and will be on the open market next month during free agency. He was owed $7.3MM next season but quickly chose to opt out, with his agent stating, “We will see what the market holds on July 1, but that market will surely be robust for Hedo.” He impressed the league all spring and in turn should see 8 figures and get $10-12MM in a multi-year deal (some speculate around 5 years).
The Magic, without a Hedo contract, are already on the books for $68MM next season with over $50MM tied up in Carter, Rashard Lewis, and Dwight Howard. They will most likely be heading into luxury tax territory (the Magic are also in serious debt, rumored around $100MM, for a new arena). I think it is safe to presume at this point that Hedo will not be re-signing with the Magic. GM Otis Smith has admitted as much, stating that the prospects of re-signing Hedo after the Carter trade are “considerably more difficult.” The AP has gone as far as stating that his run with the Magic “appears to be over.” This means the Magic have added Carter and lost Hedo, Courtney Lee, Rafer Alston, and Tony Battie.
Turkoglu averaged around 17-5-5 but was the lynchpin to the Magic offense and was their first option at the end of games in the playoffs. Carter has certainly had a prolific scoring career and can create his own shot, but it’s doubtful he will be able to run the offense in the same efficient manner that Hedo executed. The Magic will have adjustments to make on their own with Carter in the offense and he does not have the same size as Hedo which presented such match-up difficulties for the Cavs guards. Carter shot near 38% from three and Hedo shot near 41% from three last season. Carter tends to be injured more often. Carter also has attitude issues which I personally do not think will be a factor coming home to a contending Orlando. This Orlando Sentinel writer, however, does not agree and offers up a fairly scathing critique of the move in which Otis Smith less than two years ago called a trade with the Nets for Carter “fool’s gold.” Obviously, much of this is irrelevant if the Magic prove my presumption incorrect and do manage to somehow re-sign Hedo.
The loss of Alston and Lee is also significant. The Magic will most likely rely on Jameer Nelson to play upwards of 40 minutes next season. Their current back up point guard is Anthony Johnson. Nelson is a PG in the Mo Williams mold who can really score shooting from three but does not necessarily facilitate the offense. He is, however, an All-Star point who can handle the minutes if healthy. Courtney Lee was an impressive rookie who was a steal at the end of the draft last year. He was a really tough SG who is an overlooked loss for the Magic.
In addition, back up center Marcin Gortat who proved his worth during the playoffs is a free agent and seeking a much larger contract. The addition of Carter hampers their ability to re-sign him as well although it is not quite the long shot of re-signing Turkoglu. The Magic line up most likely will be Howard – Lewis – Carter – Nelson – Pietrus, with Redick, Johnson, and Ryan Anderson who is a second year 6’10 big man aqcuired in the trade coming off the bench. In sum, the subtractions are more significant than the additions in my view (with a caveat that it is still early in the offseason – e.g., Rasheed Wallace may be on his way to Orlando).
We can discuss all the changing parts of the Magic and these are definitely keys to how that team will improve or regress, but the single biggest offseason factor for the Magic is the development of Dwight Howard. It has been discussed around here every offseason since LeBron arrived – if he can improve his shot, his postgame, his defense etc. – the Cavs will be that much better next year. LeBron has improved something every offseason and while his surrounding pieces are infinitely better, his improvement is what takes the Cavs to higher levels. The same expectations should be placed on Howard. If he can develop some post moves in addition to some form of a short to mid range face up shot and improve his FT shooting, it will be the key to the Magic taking the next step. Howard accepts the challenge and is still popping off to this effect.
This is getting too long but it is also worth noting that, through this deal, the Nets have cleared a ton of cap space for the 2010 summer (consequently the Magic, however, are fairly locked into their big contracts and will miss out on the max free agents unless they dump salary). The Nets basically have a clean slate heading into that summer bonanza of free agents, which of course includes Jay-Z’s buddy LBJ. Oh, and aside from the Magic, I am pretty sure the Celtics, Bulls, Lakers, Spurs et al will be showing up next season.
33 Comments
Carter has never sniffed a championship nor played or been part of any consistent winning program. Carter has been almost non-existent in playoff appearances against the Cavs. His knees are almost shot to boot.
If this means Hedo is on the move it’s a good thing for the Cavs. Let the national pundits talk about how powerful this makes the Magic; I couldn’t be happier in how they will end up breaking up their chemistry for a stats oriented perenial invisible man when it counts. I’d rather have Courtney Lee, along with an always capable Battie off the bench.
Carter is a better player than Hedo in my opinion, but I think the Cavs have and will continue to have better success against him. Delonte is actually big enough to guard Carter.
I was surprised they gave up Courtney Lee. Basically, the team that was criticized last year for having no bench – just got an even WEAKER bench.
Their starting five is ILL however.
Nice analysis. To me, this trade was a clear concession that despite what they claimed at the end of the season, the Magic really had no intention of doing what they needed to do to get Hedo back. I hope that I’m right, because without Hedo, I believe this Magic team is significantly weaker. VC may provide the point production, but I don’t think he will provide the crunch time leadership and clutch shot making that Hedo produced over and over again in the playoffs. And, as you rightly point out, VC is less of a matchup problem for the Cavs on the perimeter because he’s not as long. ‘Sheed would be a logical acquisition for the Magic, but it will be interesting to see what type of money the Magic are willing to spend with so much already tied up.
If it came up to it, what team would you rather ‘sheed go to, the Cavs or Magic? With wallace, this trade isn’t as bad for the Magic’s immediate future. If he doesn’t go there though, then I feel they are screwed. I would agree that Tsunami that VC is better then Hedo straight up, but he is not better then hedo, lee and alston.
Another question, any rumor on whos willing to spend on hedo now? what team(s) are looking at giving him 10-12 mil?
Honestly, is there any way the Cavs could get Turkoglu?
http://www.hoopsvibe.com/nba/nba-news/cleveland-cavaliers-to-pursue-hedo-turkoglu-rasheed-wallace-ar50541.html
Just putting it out there.
Am I the only one that thinks that Vince carter is the single most overrated player in the L? The guy has only gotten out of the first round three times in his career, and two were with jason kidd.
He goes twenty and five when he is the number one scoring option on the team. He is getting older (that’s what everyone says about shaq and the baggage applies to Carter too). He is less of a machup problem from an opposing team perspective that Turgy was. and he is related to TMac.
I think the Magic are weaker for making this trade in both the long term and short.
I think long term they definitely are hurt. Giving up Courtney Lee is giving up a lot. I agree that VC isn’t the matchup problem that Hedo was. This will be interesting to watch, but I think they took a step back with this one.
yeh its surprising they didnt stand pat?! how could they let hedo get away like that i mean he was lights out against the one team (cavs) that stands in your way of a title in the next few years…..just to get VC….stupid stupid move….it may make them better on paper but not on the court
What about the Nets now? They are quietly putting together a core of young players. Harris and Lee are both talented, along with Lopez. Unloaded VC. Looks like new arena is in the works. LBJ next?
After reading these responses i am utterly disappointed at the basketball knowledge of these people. Given, Vince has only been out of the first round two times, once with NJ and once with TOR, he is still undoubetly one of the premier players in the game today. He will be a great aspect to the Magic and help them where they want to be. Hedo is a great player, but comparing him to the 8 time all star in Vince Carter is simply stupid.
I wonder sometimes when I read articles like this if the writer heard something from someone who heard something.
First, Vince is not injured often. Since he came to NJ he has played almost played played 376 of the Nets last 385 regular season games. He had one knee injury 5 years ago and has played nearly every game since.
While repeated often, it is not completely true that Hedo was main play maker on the Magic. Jameer Nelson was the catalyst driving the Magic before his injury happened. The Magic had the best mid-season record in the NBA at 33-8 and Jameer, not Hedo was named to the All-star team.
Carter is much more consistent than Hedo and will finally cause opposing teams to guard the Magic’s 2 spot for the first time since McGrady left town.
I am still not quite sure why Magic fans are liking this trade. Orlando now has $68 million in salary this season, and $66 plus for 2010-2011. They will not be able to make any more serious roster moves until that time, and will forever be stuck with the services of a 32-year-old who has been decent the past few seasons with New Jersey only because he is their only offensive producer. The combination of Alston/Lee/Turkoglu fit the Magic in their quest to take down the Cavs, and I seriously believe that Carter will not be able to fill that gap by himself.
With only eight players signed for next season despite all that money allotted right now, Orlando is in a tricky situation to find legitimate bodies for bench production. Ryan Anderson, Anthony Johnson and JJ Redick are the not the most intimidating of backups, and nothing like the combination of Pietrus/Gortat that killed Cleveland. If they are unable to resign Gortat and Turkoglu as expected, I don’t see how they keep their matchup strengths against the Cavs and come into the season as the favorites in the East.
until VC delivers a series against a high caliber highly favoured team like Clev…he’ll always be another Tracy Mccgrady/Iverson type to me…flashy until it really counts…
remember when snow shut him down in the playoffs two years ago? That was sweet.
i dont buy that hedo is/was orlando’s top player. it all starts with dwight howard. even the cavs perimeter problems against them didnt really arise until orlando made an effort to get DH established inside. once they did that and the cavs turned to the double team on DH, then orlando’s outside guys (and especially hedo) got going. when DH was totally involved in the game, the cavs were able to play straight up defense on the guys on the perimeter and did ok. we even had 20+ point leads in games 1 and 2.
to me, thats why the shaq trade is so important. he can take DH himself straight up and we wont need to double DH as much with shaq. this should let the guys on the perimeter stay home on their guys in a straight up situation. hopefully this would mean orlandos guys wouldnt get nearly as many open looks. in a sense, adding shaq strengthens the perimeter defense in this way.
i meant “when DH WASNT totally involved…”
@ #4 – the team i keep hearing/reading about signing Hedo is Portland.
Wow that bench just shrunk. Who will be the second team off the bench now? They gave up way too much considering Carter is getting older and he basically quits on teams.
“I am still not quite sure why Magic fans are liking this trade.”
They like the name and stat line. They don’t look at the financials, nor the impact on the other side of the ledger in who they lost and what the future holds for their payroll. As of now, this moves Pietrus in to the starting five, right? No longer is he the instant offense off of the bench. They lost Bogans in a worthless deal last year. Redick better put up 12 a game if they’re going to be as deep as they were last year…
Hopefully on it pans out as bad as it seems. Who knows. Everyone but Cleveland catches good breaks off deals like these.
Even if Magic fans maintain that VC equals Hedo in terms of production, I think it’s tough to argue that the Magic came out of this deal losing intangibles (Hedo was a very clutch player in a mold VC has never been), salary cap flexibility, and youth (throwing in Lee seems like a lot). The Magic seem pretty thin to me now with Pietrius moving into the starting lineup. Can’t see how their bench is going to be nearly as productive as this year’s.
Who guards Rashard Lewis? Who guards Vince Carter? Who guards Jameer Nelson?
@22 – At least we won’t have to worry about guarding Hedo anymore. Delonte will do a much better job defending VC than he could defending the 6-10 plus Turkoglu. Meanwhile, LeBron can help out more on Lewis without Hedo bringing the ball up the court, and Orlando will have an overall more traditional offense coming into next season. I wasn’t able to watch that that much during the regular season, but Nelson will be their main distributor since Lewis/Carter are not the point forwards that Turkoglu was during the playoffs for them.
again – many of their problems with guarding the perimeter started with the inability to guard howard straight up. they did ok guarding the perimeter when orlando hadnt established howard inside and we didnt have to double him yet. once the cavs had to double team him, that opened things up on the perimeter and left someone open. it was at that point where we had problems. getting shaq certainly helps in this area since he can handle howard one on one, at least better than Z or AV could.
As an aside, should the Cavs and Magic match up again in the playoffs, I can’t wait to see how many blog posts Howard writes about the “cheap fouls” he picks up against The Diesel.
This was a good deal for ORL in that getting Vince before losing Hedu kept the price down and created value. This is a short-term move but not bad. Vince has played pretty well the last few years, and although he isn’t the most clutch player in the league he is still formidable.
Losing Hedu will hurt ORL, and losing some depth will hurt. They will likely be a mildly weaker team next year, but likely with CLE the front-runners for the Eastern Conference.
Could this move possibly mean Fran Vasquez is coming state-side? If so, that would be a huge coup for ORL.
Now that I think of it, I don’t think the VC trade has anything to do with the Cavs’ real rivals – the Wizzzzzzzzzzzzz.
“I’m The Wiz, and NOBODY BEATS ME!!”
But wait. Kevin Garnett guarnteed victories for Boston the next two years. So the Cavs and Magic are beat.
I think having Vince Carter instead of Hedo makes Orlando much easier to guard. They now have a much more traditional lineup.
When Turkoglu plays point guard he’s a matchup nightmare. If you stick a smaller guy on him (Delonte) he can see right over him. If you end up with a big man checking him, Turkoglu can drive around him.
Carter is a nice end of game option, but the Magic made a ton of great end of game plays already (Vince would be really useful in a place like Houston). But like others are said, Carter is a better matchup for Delonte West.
I think the move makes Orlando much more guardable.
also, i think it makes them easier to guard. and more guardable. defensively.
@9 – the nets are putting together a nice young core, that’s true, but they’ll be playing in NJ for the foreseeable future, which means no LeBron. the brooklyn arena has met with financial and political roadblocks galore.
,,i think orlando having “VC” it will b come a favolus team in nba dwight howard team up with VC