Should I Stay or Should I Go? Jackets and Rick Nash Can Now Talk Extension

I guess that title is a bit of a misnomer, as despite the fact that NHL free-agency starts today and teams can finally offer money to players, Jackets’ Captain Rick Nash technically still has one more year left on his deal. But, in truth, the stretch between now and October when the season starts really is the Jackets’ zero-hour with him: if they can’t get him signed to an extension, it would almost become necessary to trade him during the season, as there’s no way they can out-bid the rest of the league for Nash’s services.

It has been reported that GM Scott Howson has already flown to Toronto to make a pitch to Nash. So, with that in mind, I’ve been mulling over a list of pros and cons relative to staying in Columbus for Nash as I see them. I don’t imagine that a deal will or won’t get done today, or even in the next couple of weeks (though Aaron Portzline’s lead includes the phrase “both sides want a quick deal”), but I tend to think that Nash is willing to re-up at some point this summer with Columbus for four or five more years if the Jackets make the price right. “This is the most important contract I’ve ever been involved with,” Howson said. You have no idea.

Pros (Staying in Columbus)

Status – This is the only team Nash has ever known, and he has been here throughout most of the team’s development from laughingstock to playoff qualifier. After the debacle that was the Captainship of Adam Foote, Nash was voted by his team as the new Captain, and has earned the respect of players 5-10 years his senior. He is the team’s best player, and unquestioned leader. I think back to a game in St. Louis late in the season when, down by three and getting worked over by the Blues, someone from St. Louis took a cheap shot on Nash. Kris Russel—by far the smallest guy on the ice for Columbus—immediate went over and mixed it up, and the team rallied around Nash. The Jackets then rallied to tie the score and earn a  point. That’s STATUS, people.

Comfort – Michael Arace (who is totally a glass half full kind of guy—seriously, read the first sentence of this editorial) once also wrote: “One would like to think that Nash wants to stay put. He has said he likes the direction of the team under general manager Scott Howson and coach Ken Hitchcock. He is involved in an assortment of community and charitable projects. He is a quiet sort who does not necessarily miss the din of larger and more rabid markets. He identifies with Blue Jackets fans, and they with him.” Indeed. In Columbus, OH, hockey players are probably only slightly more publicly recognized than players from the MLS team around town. Nash is the glaring exception there. He is an icon in Columbus, and he really does connect with the fanbase. He also was recognized with the NHL Foundation Award this year, given each year to recognize a player’s “commitment and service to charities in his community.” Nash clearly has a connection with Columbus, and is (should be?) comfortable here.

Team – The Blue Jackets are on the cusp of something very good. They’ve been built through the draft (Nash, Klesla, Mason, Brassard, Voracek, Russell, Filatov, etc.) and some solid FA moves and trades (Huselius, Umberger, Vermette, Commodore, Tyutin, Torres, etc.). They made the playoffs for the first time last year, and did so without contributions from Filatov and Brassard (who missed most of the year with an injury). They also were working Steve Mason in as their #1 goalie, and he played the year without a goalie coach and while battling mononucleosis, and also without a viable backup which caused him to be overused. In short, this team is primed for many years of playoff participation, and is young and should only get better. Nash is the unquestioned leader of this group, and would be the leader as they continue to develop.

Legacy – Nash has the opportunity to be the Columbus Blue Jackets’ version of Mario Lemieux. Not in terms of overall playing ability (there weren’t many—if even any more than a guy named Wayne—on the level of Super Mario), but in terms of being a decades-long “face of the franchise”. Though I largely despise the Penguins, when I think of the Penguins, I don’t think of Crosby or Malkin, Jagr, or anyone else. I think of Mario Lemieux. And, even if Crosby wins 10 Stanley Cups for/with the Penguins, I will always make the mental connection of Penguins = Mario Lemieux. Lemieux sacrificed to make the Penguins great again. When they couldn’t pay him, they gave him the team. He basically single-handedly kept the Penguins in Pittsburgh. Well, I might be somewhat overly dramatic in saying this, but Nash has the chance to do the same thing in Columbus. He is the “Franchise Player” in every sense of the word. If he stays in Columbus, by the end of just this next contract, he will not only own every Columbus record there is, but he would have the chance to set the bars so high by the end of his career that he could become the eternal franchise player for the Blue Jackets. And, for a franchise that is reportedly struggling financially, having a guy like Nash to build the entire thing around both on the ice and off of it is certainly on the level of what Lemieux brought to Pittsburgh. And, I think Nash is a guy that “gets” that, too.

Dollars, Part 1 – This is down here because I wanted to tie it into the “Parts 2 and 3” below. Much like the NBA, the NHL is expecting a smaller salary cap for the 2010-2011 season than they have now. And, while there isn’t a “max” salary structure like there is in hoops, there are a lot of GMs hinting that players holding out for big dollars are in for a rude awakening both this summer and next. It’s not outside the realm of possibility that Nash can actually get a better deal this summer than next, if the league’s revenues drop as sharply as expected given the state of the world economy.

Cons (Holding Out for Free Agency Next Summer)

Dollars, Part 2 – In the end, this is always going to be a factor in sports, as much as we the fans hope our favorite players will be the one guy who “isn’t about the money”. Well, folks, it’s time to face facts: it’s ALWAYS about the money to some degree. That’s not to say Nash won’t take a little less than what he *might* get on the open market next year to stay put; but, let’s be realistic. If the deal isn’t in the neighborhood of what he—and maybe more importantly, his agent—thinks he’s worth, he’s not going to roll over for the Jackets, even given all of the intangibles I’ve listed above. And, also, it must be stated that despite the state of the economy NOW, there’s on guarantee it won’t rally by next summer and give teams MORE money to spend then. If that’s a gamble Nash and his agent are willing to take, it could pay off for them. Much like baseball, there are always going to be teams that can outspend a smaller market like Columbus. The Rangers spring to mind. Literally every year, I ask myself at least once, “How can the Rangers afford this??” Remember the Jim Thome negotiations? There are going to be teams that can stretch a contract longer and richer than can Columbus. If it gets to that point, Columbus may not be able to compete simply by selling Rick the intangibles above.

Dollars, Part 3 – Call this one “The McConnell Factor”. It’s never been a secret that Nash was close with the late owner founder John H. McConnell. It’s also most likely that Mr. Mac would have done any and everything in his power to sign Nash, even if it meant overstretching his budget a bit. There are doubts about whether his son, John P. McConnell feels that strong connection to the team. John P. strikes me as a Randy Lerner in the sense that perhaps he didn’t want to have to be the owner of this team, and has his interests and priorities elsewhere. I’m speculating here, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Howson came to him and said, “John, we need to extend ourselves just a bit to get Rick signed,” that John P. might shoot it down, because frankly he just doesn’t care all that much. That’s a potential monkey wrench to these negotiations that cannot be ignored or overstated.

Toronto/Canadian Factor, Part 1 – Call this part the “Closer to Home” factor. One of the most-often rumored destinations for Nash has always been Toronto. Nash is from the Toronto area. So, while LeBron’s home of Akron has long been considered to be a factor in him staying put next summer, the opposite could potentially be true for Nash. It wouldn’t be unfair for him to want to play near his hometown, family, and friends.

Toronto/Canadian Factor, Part 2 – Call this part the “Soccer Hooligan” factor. It’s not a secret that Toronto is the de facto Center of the North American Hockey Universe. Canadians care A LOT more about their hockey than most Americans do, and it’s not a stretch to say that Nash would instantly become 50 times more marketable after signing a contract in Toronto (or most Canadian markets, for that matter). Nash is an Olympian for Team Canada, and is/would be a household name if he played in Toronto. It has to be factored in: “Last summer, there were rumors,” Nash said. “This summer, it’s been unbelievable. I’ve been at the mall, out to a movie, at a golf tournament even crossing the border one time. People are saying ‘You better be coming to Toronto.’ That is the team I grew up watching. But I’m committed to the Blue Jackets. I want to take this organization to the next level.” I think I just threw up in my mouth a little bit.

So, with all of that having been thrown out onto the table, what do I think? Well, first of all, what does Rick think? Being forced, of course, to take him at his word, this is what we know:

“I know what (today) could mean for me and the organization,” Nash said. “I’d like it to happen quickly but, if it doesn’t, I have no problem waiting until both sides are happy. I’ve come up right through the ranks; now I’m the Captain. I love this organization; I love everything about it. Nobody wants to rob the other person; we just both want to be satisfied.”

…

“If I sign a five-year contract, I come out at the end of it at 30 years old,” Nash said. “That’s when most guys are in their prime. The crazy long-term contracts — 10 years or so — that could be kind of nice, too.”

Sounds reasonable enough, and I honestly think the Jackets are more amenable to the four- or five-year kind of deal. If Nash and his agent recognize that that not only gives them the flexibility to get out if things don’t go right—all while Rick is still technically in his prime years—then they might be more willing to do it. And, if those overall sentiments from Rick set the tone for the negotiations, I think a deal gets done earlier rather than later.

But, we also have to remember that the players aren’t the only ones at the table. They pay agents for a reason, and agents get their commissions for a reason, too. So, what does Rick’s agent have to say relative to Howson’s early sales pitch?

“[It] was off-the-ice stuff, too,” [agent Joe] Resnick said. “It was about Rick’s standing in the community, the way he carries himself in public, the time and the money he gives to charitable causes in central Ohio. Scott wanted to make it clear to Rick that they think about those things when it comes to putting together this contract, that they don’t go unnoticed. The larger point was he’s a huge part of the Blue Jackets’ organization.”

…

“We’re not going into the negotiations just to bang tires. We’re going in to negotiate and get a deal done. And we’re optimistic.”

The gravity of this situation relative to the entire franchise cannot be overstated. As Arace says in his editorial (and he’s right, too):

“The Nash extension is the most important player-personnel deal in the history of the Blue Jackets. Nash will agree to terms and remain entrenched as the team’s captain and franchise player — or he will be traded, to salvage some value before he hits the free-agent market next year.

If Nash gets traded, the Jackets lose. It would be a major blow to the franchise, its roster, its fan base, its perception of viability. In such situations, I always recall the words of former New York Knicks President (and current St. Louis Blues owner) Dave Checketts: ‘If we trade Patrick Ewing to the Clippers for five Clippers, then we’re the Clippers.’”

It has to get done. And, it has to get done sooner rather than later, lest the discussion explodes, which would invariably give Nash and his agent a) more leverage, and b) possibly more incentive to wait things out. I plan on wearing out my browser’s “Refresh” button this afternoon, as the long-term viability of the franchise potentially hangs in the balance.