WaitingForNextYear

UPATED-Sorry guys, due to technical difficulties a good portion of this post didn’t show up initially. I have re-written the last part of this post to summarize my initial thoughts that were lost. Sorry for the confusion.

Danny Ferry’s selection of NC State’s J.J. Hickson with the #19 pick in last night’s draft has left many Cavs fans reeling and fearing the worst. But when you take a deep breath and look at the Cavaliers’ draft overall, there is much to feel good about.

Take a look at the facts. The Cavaliers were selecting at #19 in the draft last night. Marquee players are rarely found at #19 or lower. When you look at the All-Star teams last year, on the Eastern Conference side, every single player was taken in the top 10. On the Western Conference side, only Kobe Bryant, Steve Nash, David West, and Carlos Boozer were drafted outside the top 10, and even then, only Boozer was taken below #19.

Here are some other facts. Lance Allred is an undrafted free agent who is unlikely to ever contribute. Z is 33 years old and entering the last phase of his career. Dwayne Jones is a restricted free agent who may or may not be back, but never showed any real promise when he played. Joe Smith is 32 years old and in the final year of his contract. Anderson Varejao is, for all intents and purposes, in the final year of his deal and there’s no chance he re-signs with Cleveland. Ben Wallace is 33 years old and is a shell of the fierce player he once was. The Cavaliers have ZERO depth in their frontcourt for the future.

This is a classic example where expectations don’t meet reality. Sure, drafting a big man project isn’t what I would have done. Sure, there were players I liked much more than Hickson. But this pick wasn’t out of left field. I think this paragraph still holds true and explains why Ferry went this route,

“The thing you have to realize about the guys in the Cavaliers’ organization from top to bottom, from Dan Gilbert to Danny Ferry to Mike Brown to LeBron James, is that they are all stubborn. Maybe not all of them are stubborn to a fault, but they are all at least stubborn to the point of intrigue. And in Danny Ferry’s case, I think this helps us predict what his next move will be. I think everyone in the Cavs organization, while still mindful of LeBron’s free agency date, is somewhat confident that LeBron is not leaving. We can argue until we’re blue in the face as to whether or not LeBron is staying or leaving, but the point is that Danny Ferry has made it clear that he is going to operate this franchise under the assumption he is staying. What this means, is that he’s not going to necessarily pick a guy who is NBA-ready right now. He is going to pick the guy he thinks will be of most value and will fill the biggest need 2 to 3 years from now.”

And that’s exactly what happened. Danny Ferry picked a guy who has a real chance of helping this team in the long haul. And if you don’t believe you can get a player who will make an immediate impact, then it makes sense to pick a guy with a world of talent like Hickson. Just watch some of these highlights:

There are some things to really like about Hickson. A comparison frequently seen and heard is Al Harrington. If the Cavs get an Al Harrington-ish player with the #19 pick, then I’m ok with that. It would certainly be an upgrade over what the Cavs have right now. A general consensus is that had Hickson come out of the draft next year, he would have been a lottery pick. So the Cavs got a potential lottery pick a year earlier with the #19 pick. That’s not a horrible gamble to take. CBS SportsLine says,

“Compares To: AL HARRINGTON-Golden State…Hickson lacks the size to play center in the NBA, but he has the physical tools — length, elevation, strong frame and explosive leaping ability — to be an effective NBA power forward. He is very coordinated in the open floor and shows good bounce in his step, especially on second-effort jumps around the basket for putbacks and rebounds. He has developed good back-to-the-basket skills, but lacks confidence in his long-range jumper, as he does not like shooting from the perimeter. In the paint, he can elevate for resounding dunks and shows nifty spin and hesitation moves to get the defender on his heels. Hickson’s game is right-hand dominant, lacking any sort of range with his left hand and he’ll need improved stamina to last an NBA season. He will need another year or two to develop, being a late first-round player this year. Had Hickson returned to N.C. State, he would have likely been a lottery pick in 2009.”

Chad Ford says,

“Grade: A-

Round 1: J. J. Hickson (19)

Round 2: None

Analysis: Hickson has been one of my sleepers in the draft. He has an NBA body and great athleticism, and he can play inside and out. His game needs to develop, but the raw tools are impressive. He could be a nice long-term replacement for Joe Smith. At No. 19, he was one of the few players left on the board with a chance of being a great player.”

The bottom line is that none of knows how this pick will turn out. Maybe Hickson will turn out to be a bust. Maybe he will achieve his potential. But either way, the one thing we all need to remember is that this draft pick was not going to make or break the Cavaliers’ title chances next season. Chris Douglas-Roberts wasn’t going to keep LeBron in Cleveland any more than J.J. Hickson will push LeBron away from Cleveland. The Cavaliers’ best way of winning a Championship before the draft was to trade these expiring contracts for a legit NBA All-Star. That still remains true after the draft. And nobody that the Cavaliers could have picked at #19 last night would have changed that.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download