Trade Deadline Analysis: Siding With Shapiro
Written By: TD | Category: Cleveland Indians | Comments: 75
Listen up all of you Dolan haters. I’m going to do something you aren’t going to like. I am going to take the contrarian view from the majority of the Wahoo Nation and look at the great fire sale of 2009 from the Mark Shapiro standpoint. It’s time to play devil’s advocate. Like it or not folks, that is what you are going to get.
Lets get some of this nauseating facts out of the way right off the bat:
- Cliff Lee is the second Cy Young award winner in two years to be traded by the Shapiro regime.
- The Lee/Ben Francisco combination did not net the Indians pitchers Kyle Drabek or JA Happ.
- Lee’s first start in Philadelphia was a complete game, four hit, one run, win in San Francisco.
- Victor Martinez told reporters at the all star game that he wanted to spend his entire career in Cleveland.
- Martinez was dealt three weeks later and sat at his locker in tears while packing his things.
- On Sunday, his second game with Boston, Vic The Stik had five hits and four RBI.
Would it make you feel better if I told you that heading into last night Ryan Garko was 2-16 with zero RBI’s since joining the Giants? Probably not. Look, I know it hurts. I know so many of you want to give in to the fight. I’ve received emails from friends and comments from readers telling me that they are done with the Indians until the Dolan family sells. Take this one from example, from one of the most intelligent Cleveland sports fans I know:
I reserve the right to change my mind, but the current thinking is that the Tribe is dead to me. I will waste no emotional energy on them until the Dolans are gone.
I have been losing my interest for awhile – steroids, not living in Cleveland, ridiculous economics favoring large market teams, my son doesn’t play baseball, etc. – but trading Lee and Martinez, both essentially under contract through 2010 at relatively reasonable salaries, was the last straw. I did not mind when they traded CC in his last year since I know that $18mm was not something that we could afford, but this is different.Anyone who buys tickets next year should really be checked for their sanity. My advice would be to go to the Class A and donate 50% of the savings to a charity of your choice.TD – I would stub hub every game if I were you.
Why is it that so many people want to jump ship on the Indians when things go south, yet your beloved Browns get 50,000 chances? I know “this is a Browns town, man!” Hey, I still support the Browns even though they haven’t loved me back in years. Why not return the favor with the Tribe?
Off the soap box for now.
——-
On to the nuts and bolts of why I’m here today. While all of you want to drown in a sea of tears over losing the two best players we have, try to look on the bright side. Nobody loved Vic The Stik more than I did. He was the unquestioned leader of this club and a man who genuinely loved this community. I’m not under-playing what Cliff and Victor meant to this organization, I just want you to try and look at this through your magic Shapiro glasses.
The Indians as an organization had a major hole in the power arms department. Other than their one magic bullet in Hector Rondon, you couldn’t name one single hard-throwing arm in the high minors that was on the fast track. I mean, after all, your Columbus rotation at one point featured Kirk Saarloos, Zach Attack Jackson, Jack Cassel, and Ken Ray. The drafts over the past decade plus have been atrocious, especially in regards to pitching (Jeremy Sowers, Alan Horne, Jeremy Guthrie, Dan Denham, JD Martin, and Adam Miller).
Then you have the ownership, the attendance, and the payroll. These three factors are all intertwined. The 2009 Tribe started opening day with a payroll just over $80 million. That figure was already too rich for the Dolan family blood. But with what they thought would be a contender on their hands in the weak AL Central, they ponied up for additions like Kerry Wood and Mark DeRosa. The figure the organization had to reach was 2.2 million fans to break even financially. Ah, the best laid plans….
The under-achieving Indians stumbled out of the gate and put the ownership behind the eight ball. The fans stopped showing with the Tribe circling the drain, TV ratings were down, the economy is in dire straits in a dying city, and the reality was something had to be done. The first salvo was fired when DeRosa was dealt to St. Louis for Relievers Chris Perez and Jess Todd. Nobody seemed to care at the time. DeRosa was a bonus addition. Three months of him got the Indians two prime relievers who are on the cusp of (or in – in Perez’s case) the majors. While Perez has the power arm Shapiro craves for the back end of the bullpen, Todd is the one who has turned heads so far. In his first three appearances in Columbus spanning four innings, he hasn’t allowed a run while striking out seven and walking none.
Next out the door was Rafael Betancourt in another salary dump. He brought in A ball pitcher Connor Graham, rated the #4 prospect in the Colorado Rockies system. Garko packed his things a week later, bringing in another A ball Scott Barnes, who was described as a “legit prospect, posting a 2.85 ERA and 99/29 K/BB ratio in 98 innings at high Single-A as a 21-year-old” by Aaron Gleeman of Rotoworld.com.
Are you seeing a theme here?
Those were just small fish trades that brought in four young pitchers. There was more on the way. Lee and Francisco left two days after Garko for Philadelphia. That deal included A ball pitcher Jason Knapp, a 19-year old flame-throwing righty who hits 99 on the gun. MLB.com came out with their list of the top 50 prospects on Friday, and Knapp’s name appeared at #39. (FYI – Kyle Drabek, the Phillies phenom who everyone wants, sits at #26.) In addition, 22-year old starter Carlos Carrasco was in the deal. The one time top Phillies prospect was on the fast track to the majors before struggling this season in AAA. The Indians hope they can turn him back into the guy that was pitching in last year’s futures game. Catcher Lou Marson and SS Jason Donald rounded out the haul. All four were top 10 prospects in the Phillies system with Carrasco, Marson, and Donald all reporting to AAA.
I know Shapiro didn’t pull Drabek, OF Dominic Brown (#24 on the MLB list), or OF Michael Taylor (#20) in the deal, but it’s been reported that the Indians could have had either Brown or Taylor in the place of Marson or Knapp. They passed because they felt like they had plenty of corner OF options coming soon (i.e Michael Brantley and Nick Weglarz). Drabek is untouchable and the Phillies wouldn’t give him up for Roy Halladay. I don’t understand the logic of wanting Marson, a catcher who is supposedly just an OK receiver and hits for little power, over budding studs like Taylor or Brown. Give me talent, regardless of where they play.
But it would all come into better focus just two days later when Martinez was sent to Boston. Marson now will compete for the starting catcher position next season. In the meantime, The Stik brought over pitchers Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone, and Bryan Price. When the trade first went down, on top of the fact that I was initially crushed that one of my all time favorite Indians was dealt, I couldn’t fathom how Shapiro and his crew made this deal without the inclusion of Sox phenoms Clay Buckholz or Daniel Bard. While Masterson and Hagadone are highly regarded, Buckholz and Bard they aren’t. But again, this shows you how desperate ownership must have been to slash payroll anyway they could.
So instead of the high ceiling Buckholz or Bard coming over, the Indians settled for Masterson and the two other A ball pitchers. Hagadone was being fast-tracked through the system before needing Tommy John surgery in June 2008. But the 6′5″ lefty and former Red Sox first round pick is just 23-years old and has a career minor league ERA of 1.82 in 23 starts. Masterson is already a major leaguer and will most likely be your #3 starter next year. The Red Sox have been touting him as a can’t miss for the past three years, but have kind of kicked him back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen. Here, once his arm is built up, he will be a starter (although, he looked great in his Indians debut Saturday, pitching three shutout innings).
Throw in last season’s deadline deals which brought Carlos Santana (#21 on the MLB list) from the Dodgers organization, 1B Matt LaPorta (#13), and OF Michael Brantley from the Brewers system, and you have added 13 young players to your mix (I won’t add Zack Attack or Rob Bryson as both were throw-ins). Are the Indians better off right now on the major league level? Of course not. Will these trades help build up the team for the next cycle of contending around 2011? You would hope so and Shapiro is banking on it. And in a division as weak as the AL Central, who says it isn’t possible?
Think about it. Shapiro has done his best work with trades, while his drafts have been suspect at best. You can still say he is living off of the Bartolo Colon deal of 2002, but had any of you heard of Cliff Lee or Grady Sizemore? Some knew of Brandon Phillips, but even so, at the time you thought “how could the Tribe trade a potential ace for three prospects?” How did that one work out? Shappy also snagged Travis Hafner for Einar Diaz and Ryan Drese, Shin-Soo Choo for Ben Broussard, and Asdrubal Cabrera for Eduardo Perez. He turned Bob Wickman into Max Ramirez, then turned Ramirez into Kenny Lofton in 2007, who was the missing ingredient in the push to get to within a game of the World Series.
Keep in mind, I’m not saying I agree with every thing here, just want you to see the other side of things. There are two sides of every coin, my friends. Shapiro is just playing the hand he has been dealt.
Author: TD
TD is a born and bred Clevelander who agrees with ESPN's Scott Van Pelt when he says ""Ranch Dressing makes everything better except for cereal and ice cream."TD has written 252 articles for Waiting for Next Year.
Magic Shapiro Glasses:
Yeah, I guess so. (mutter grumble grumble)
Still miss Vic, though. That one’ll hurt for a while.
“But when things turn around in a few years, don’t ask to come back in, because we don’t need you.”
Umm I’m pretty sure at that point (2017?), there will still be plenty of good seats available.
When you look at it from this perspective, I can’t really fault Shapiro. This is excellent.
Good to see things from a different point of view.
Keep up the good work, TD.
Excellent article, TD. Also, don’t forget that Dolan laid out big-time bucks to keep Hafner and Westbrook. It’s not his fault they got hurt. Also, who knows what would have happened if Sabathia and Carmona hadn’t choked Choked CHOKED in the ‘07 ALCS? Things might be very different now (although I must concede that they might not be.)
I dropped the Indians in a process that started with the Colon trade, not because of bad management, but because there is no reason to follow small market teams. Every year begins with five roughly equal possibilities. Four of them are the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, or Dodgers winning the World Series. The last possibility is someone else winning the World Series.
The reason why we give the Browns a zillion chances is because the Browns have as good a chance as anyone else to compete.
Of course, taking the nearly unprecedented step of giving up on NEXT year too stings a little more than usual. But until there’s a salary cap, or some way for small market owners to win without losing their shirts, baseball just isn’t worth it.
Nice try, but how many prospects, in reality pan out to be Major Leaguers. 20%? Beyond that, how many of those 20% become good Major Leaguers? How many become stars? The odds are against the Indians.
And you can trust Shapiro all you want, but remember this. His best trade is thought by most to be the Colon deal. Well, two of those players are playing elsewhere and the other is hitting .230.
“Hey, I still support the Browns even though they haven’t loved me back in years. Why not return the favor with the Tribe?”
It hurts to watch but I still love the Tribe.
Good article TD.
TD-surprised that you’ve bought this thing hook, line, and sinker. You’re missing totally what is going on at the Dolan level and implemented by Shapiro-blinded by your assertion of being a season ticket holder. And your assertion that those who feel different have “jumped ship” is condescending at best. I for one “jumped ship” and handed the Dolan’s my season ticket package in 2002-it’s been that evident for that long. Your devil’s advocacy argument doesn’t work…….
Have you tried analyzing Shapiro’s COMPLETE body of work to including year by year drafting, free agent signings, and trades? (and not plucking out the ones that look good). Have you asked why Shapiro had to restock the entire farm system after being here in his current role almost a decade and producing little home grown talent? Have you analyzed the phony financial offers made to Thome and CC only to placate media and fans?
I’ll say it again…….the next time the Indians contend Dolan AND Shapiro will not be here. BOOK IT.
I agree wholeheartedly…and as ive said before, ill say it again…this team is not that far off..theyve got a lot of young talent, and when they start winning, everyone will jump back on the bandwagon…its only natural…i said during the trades and ill reiterate it again…these were not bad deals…they got a very good return on what we gave up…
Go Tribe!
rofl @ isis…I almost want to picture Isis as Oscar the Grouch…
“The figure the organization had to reach was 2.2 million fans to break even financially….”
I beg to differ with this statement. I would venture to guess that they needed 2.2 million fans to meet their revenue expectations, which is completely different than breaking even.
Give it a rest Isis, we all know what you think about the Indians and there is no point in wasting anymore space about it.
I like the article and after a few days to digest the trade I am feeling better about it. The Indians werent going to compete next year, and while I think Vic might have stayed after 2010, Lee was definitely gone. We got the best pull we could and started the rebuilding clock a year early which will hopefully lead to a resurgence a year earlier. I wish Shapiro would get a little better draft record though, as he has picked some serious duds with the first round picks.
The biggest fan of this trade though has to be Eric Wedge. He gets another couple years of “well no one could win with this team”. I hope they go in a different direction manager wise for this new round of prospects.
The issue I have here is with the statement “But when things turn around in a few years, don’t ask to come back in, because we don’t need you.”
First off, I’m not so sure things really will turn around in a few years. Will they get better? Sure. They can hardly get worse. But will the Indians be true competitors? I don’t think so. Luck aside, I see them competing, at best, for a wild-card spot. This is why I didn’t jump back on the Indians bandwagon in ‘05 or ‘07, and why I tried to convince my Indians faithful, Shapiro/Dolan apologist friends that if they think the Indians will see a World Series run in ‘08, they better think again. A playoff run would be lucky enough.
My reasoning:
I mentioned “luck aside” for a reason. I truly believe the ‘07 run was a lot of luck, and I offer the ‘06, ‘08 and ‘09 seasons as proof. Sure, the Indians could compete every year if they were completely healthy and a few other key teams had a few other key injuries. But so could most professional sports organizations.
The ‘07 Tribe had the perfect storm of a young pitcher blossoming from nowhere and having his best season thus far in his short career (Carmona), a Cy Young winner (C.C.), a “washed-up” veteran pitching near the height of his career in the playoffs (Byrd), an injury-prone power hitter having his only good/great season (Hafner), and the willingness of a cheap owner (Dolan) to actually add a small piece (Lofton) to the puzzle mid-season. Add to that mix a beat-up-the-entire-season Yankees club, and the Indians had the pieces to go deep…until Boston woke up from their “this is ours to lose” stupor and beat the Tribe mercilessly in the final three games of the playoff series just like they had in five of the seven times the Indians played them during the season.
Take one piece out of that mixture and you have a decent baseball team that may have won one playoff series at best. Take two pieces out, and you have the ‘08 Indians.
Let’s be honest…by the time this team begins to gel again, Sizemore will be on his way out. Choo may be wearing pinstripes. So that leaves us with a team that may be able to have 1-2 seasons playing over .500 baseball, maybe make the playoffs once, and then cut and run again…while toting how they’ve built a winner this same way twice before, and they’re going to do it again. Nevermind the twice-as-many-years that we all will spend watching a loser, just for one season of .550 baseball.
Isis represents every fair weather fan in Cleveland. We all know plenty of them. Complaining to no end, quitting on the team, offering no logical solution to the problem just screaming that there is a problem and then first in line for tickets when things turn around touting the strengths of the team.
I don’t really understand the “We’ll be good in 2012″ mentality. Let’s say we are good in 2012. So what? We’ve been good before. We have to WIN THE WORLD SERIES in that one or two year window, before everyone is gone again.
@15 – agreed
they had to trade lee at peak value. they werent going to contend next year. they werent going to re-sign lee after he hit the open market either. at a minimum, lee is going to get what AJ Burnett just signed for – and probably much more. the indians cant afford to pay a 32 year old pitcher that kind of cash. it seems to me that this was the best offer out there for lee. the phillies didnt give up their supposed top 2 pitchers (drabek and haap) but they also didnt give them up to get hallyday. that tells me they werent trading those guys period. ricciardi – torontos gm – is now getting skewered for not trading hallyday at peak trade value. Tor could have had essentially the same trade the indians got for Lee. so next season when Tor again doesnt contend, they will trade hallyday for apparently less than what they could have gotten now. Shapiro probably did the right thing and sold Lee at high value, not to mention there is no guarantee Lee does not regress some or get hurt next season.
sean,
about this: “But will the Indians be true competitors? I don’t think so. Luck aside, I see them competing, at best, for a wild-card spot”
Have you been paying attention to the AL central lately? No one in this division will be competing for a wild card spot any time soon. it’s AL central champs or bust.
When Lee was shipped out, I just shrugged as I knew it was coming. When I heard the Vic deal went through, I dropped every curse word I could think of. And I fully admit that I initially swore off the Indians for 1 year, but have since calmed down. I understand the point you’re trying to get across in this well-written article, and I’d like to think most true Cleveland sports fans (i.e. those not named Isis) can read this with an open mind. But regardless of how these prospects turn out, regardless if Masterson, Hagadone, or Price eventually become the greatest pitchers to ever wear a Tribe uni, it won’t change the fact that we loved Vic, Vic loved us, and he was stolen from us in the worst of ways. Here in Cleveland, it’s not everyday one of our beloved athletes actually wants to stick around forever (here’s looking at you #23), especially given the current economical and statistical situation of the Tribe. I don’t know off the top of my head how much The Stik was making this year or next, but I find it hard to believe we couldn’t have found a way to make it work. While I am still trying to come to grips with it all, I will be back at the stadium, if not before, then at the last home game of the season, aka Fan Appreciation Night, with a sign that reads “If you truly appreciated us fans, you wouldn’t have traded Vic.”
Have you tried analyzing Shapiro’s COMPLETE body of work to including year by year drafting, free agent signings, and trades? (and not plucking out the ones that look good).
I think TD did that. He mentioned that the drafting has been lackluster at best. However, I would contend that looking at FA signings is a bit of a bad indicator. Would you argue that Brian Cashman is a better GM than Shapiro based on the fact that the has $200 million more per year to spend? To me, that makes the argument all relative.
I have always thought that, despite his faults (and there are some), Shapiro has always done more with less than any other GM in the game. He’s basically bringing a knife to a gun fight, though, when you compare him apples to apples against Theo Epstein and Brian Cashman. If money were no object, the Tribe would have a rotation with Sabathia and Cliff Lee, would still have Jim Thome and Martinez, and could afford to sign guys like Kerry Wood and trade for guys like DeRosa EVERY year to bolster the bullpen and add missing pieces. He could also afford to eat Hafner’s contract in order to replace him on the roster.
But, he can’t do that because Dolan is financially undermining him.
I’ll say it again…….the next time the Indians contend Dolan AND Shapiro will not be here. BOOK IT.
You may be right (and Lord knows you’d hire a skywriter to make sure we all know it if you are), but I think that 90% of your statement is Dolan, and maybe 10% is Shapiro.
@18 — and I’d venture to say they traded Vic at peak value as well. He started off hot as h—-, but obvisiously has dipped considerably since before the All-Star break. He possessed a weak arm, was a mediocre defensive first baseman, and the years on his knees seemed to be catching up.
I feel his best years are behind him.
But as the departing emotional leader of our team, I will always root for him.
@TD – Cleveland is not a “dying city”. Please pick a new adjective dude, I get really annoyed by lazy language like that
TD you forgot about the trade that brought future all star Andy Marte…
TD- The problem with this post is that only time will tell. Keep this post ready to show again for/if the Indians turn it around some season in the future.
On another note, even if we have great potential, once that potential pays off, those players responsible for the turn around will turn to Dolan and ask him to pay up. Until there is some parity in dealing with salaries in the MLB from team to team, the Indians will always be the Major League Farm Team.
I’ve been pretty quiet here lately, partly because I’m busy, but also partly because the overall negative attitude was a bit off-putting. I’d been wondering when we became NYers (and I’m currently living in NYC) and had an expectation of contending every year and the following year, even when we clearly are not.
It’s refreshing to see a piece like this that takes such a good, fair, long-term outlook on one of our teams. Thanks.
I think the Indians learned from one previous mistake they used to make, which was overloading on talent regardless of position. Now, they seem to be focusing on getting 1-2 solid or better talents at each position, plus numerous relief pitchers to pick from. I think that’s a very good approach, and we may see a whole team come up over the next 2-3 years that can really play and contend for a long time. Kudos to Shapiro for looking ahead, not behind, however painful that is in the short-term.
TF – you could argue that trade was made at the peak time. Coco was dealt at the peak of his value and everyone in baseball loved Marte. Shappy’s biggest mistake was not trading Shoppach this past offseason. Talk about a guy who’s value has dropped. Last offseason Shop would have fetched us a prime prospect. Now, he wouldnt fetch us a bag of balls and I bet he is non-tendered this offseason.
I hear Chace Friedman is the CF of the future…
Hell, I still think Frank Duffy rocked. I’m not going anywhere. Yeah, we’re let down on a regular basis, but the two attempts at the series wouldn’t have been anywhere near as interesting without the decades of debacles. And Shapiro isn’t Trader Lane, at least we’re getting young kids with possibilities. They’ll come through for us one day, and when it happens, I’ll sit there and say, I knew it would come…
Ok, so we get 13 prospects, just to bring them up and sure some will turn out to be good but then what are we going to do with them? Trade them for prospects of course, or just let them walk in free agency.
I didn’t mind the Cliff Lee deal. The Victor trade stung, because he loved the organization and the city and likely would have taken a pay-cut to stay. My initial reaction was “Why would Shapiro trade Vic? Don’t tell me we can’t afford him”, but then I realized that GM’s are not supposed to act emotionally. The truth is, Carlos Santana is a year or two away from being an everyday catcher and he’s a stud. Victor would have been great as the 1B/DH leader on the team, but his productivity may not have matched his salary. I’ll bet Shapiro and Victor are friends and it killed him to make the trade. But he obviously thinks this is the right move for the team to contend long-term and maximize its assets while it can. I love Victor with all my heart and wish him the absolute best, but I’m starting to get excited about the Tribe’s future following the flurry of trades.
You’re right Jesse. We will get young prospects. Let them play and develop into big leaguers. we will then use their talents for 2-4 years and trade them for more prospects, repeating the cycle.
We will fill the gaps in our teams with aging veterans who we hope will contribute solid but unspectacular numbers.
That is what the Indians have always done. Why is everyone so surprised by this?
What is holding us back from signing Victor after next year?
@29 – hi there. welcome to baseball in cleveland. glad to have you.
@ TD #27- I was actually being semi serious and for some reason truly believe that the Marte trade will end up going down as a great trade 1. Because as you state coco is worthless and 2. Maybe I am on something but I believe Marte will be solid next year.
As for Chace Matthews Friedman, he will play linebacker for Browns and own a few car dealerships upon retirement
giving up on going to games isn’t jumping ship on the indians. it is simply you cutting cost and putting prioirities in order.
if the dolans can do it, why can’t we?
i still love the team, love the players, but i am done pouring money into the indians until something changes. i’m tired of trading for prospects. i’m tired of the tribe NEVER being buyers at the deadline.
doesn’t mean i am any less of a fan.
be careful for what you wish for, d-train. remember the old days when the indians WERE buyers at the deadline? (giles for ricardo rincon? seitzer for burnitz?)
@35 – solution: make a couple hundred million, maybe a billion or so, and use your money to fund all of the things you want…because its not happening here in cleveland…
no one said going to the games was what is responsible for the indians lackluster season…but the reality is, without revenue, this team is not able to be beacked by an owner that isnt budging on $…they went out and spend this offseason by getting dero and wood…it didnt work, we were losing, we had to dump where we could because this team was not performing…
and the indians have been buyers in the past…sequi, kirby, lofton, etc…theyre never going to get a Halladay or a Holliday, but they will get something when they need to…
nobody said you were any less of a fan…personally, I didnt go to any games this year because I couldnt stand Garko, Dellucci, Shoppach and benny…SO glad theyre gone…and now that they have some exciting young guys in there, ill actually GO to a few games now…
Sometimes I wonder why some people on this board are Tribe fans at all. This is the team you root for. Get some prospects, hope to grow them into stars for a 2-3 window of opportunity of greatness. Do some long term pre arbitration deals when they make sense. I agree with the poster who said we should not expect to be in the playoffs every single year. If you want that, the yankee/red sox bandwagon has a spot for you.
One of the biggest joys of being a tribe fan is knowing that when they win it all it will be against all odds and not bought like the big markets do.
If you don’t like that setup, then seriously consider rooting for another team. and Macnip I agree. Why can’t we resign Victor after next year?
Nice analysis.
The Cliff Lee trade bugs me the most. We traded an Ace who we still had under control for 2010 for no sure things. The best guy we got back was Knapp, who’s so far away and with a peculiar enough delivery that he has a couple of question marks.
That said if the marching orders from The Dolans are to cut payroll what choice does Shapiro really have? Hopefully we get a new coaching staff in this winter to develop some of this talent.
And I doubt that Shapiro is on a very short leash, but with the way the drafts have gone I’d have to wonder if he needs to replace his Player Personnel Director, or whoever he has running that thing. Our drafting track record has been atrocious.
TD, I agree with the overall sentiment of the article but I think you went a bit overboard.
“But when things turn around in a few years, don’t ask to come back in, because we don’t need you.”
MLB season tickets are a big commitment of time and money. If the Tribe looks like it’s going to be in the crapper next year, I’m not looking to drop several thousand dollars on 81 home games or for that matter even 1/6th of that.
I’ll certainly drop by the Jake for a few games but otherwise I’ll be content to watch them on STO the rest of the time. And I’m sure I’ll be right here, WaitingForNextYear with all of you.
great article….glad to see a positive spin.
I’m fully onboard with the Lee trade…it was the right thing to do and I like what we got back.
Victor deal hurt for the reasons you mentioned…plus, he’s on the Red Sox now, which means I can’t root for him (I would if he was dealt to TB for example).
Hope Masterson ends up being better than Bucholz (don’t laugh…Bucky is curerntly struggling and young pitchers can fall off a cliff).
Thanks for the article; I’ve enjoyed the summaries of prospects and future rosters over the past couple days.
There are a lot of complaints about the Tribe not contending very often, but I think that’s just the reality of small-market teams, and part of what I like about baseball. First off, I like the front office choosing this strategy rather than a strategy of attempting to compete year in, year out with their budget. Even if the Dolans were somewhat more generous, it’s just not going to happen. We’d see a lot of .500-ish finishes and miss the playoffs.
Second, baseball isn’t like the other main pro sports. Only 8 out of 30-ish teams make the playoffs, instead of 16 out of 30-ish. I like that, since making the playoffs means something, but it does mean we won’t make the playoffs as often.
Baseball also doesn’t have a salary cap. I’ve seen a couple times on this thread and previously some wishes for a salary cap in the MLB, but I don’t think that would save the Indians much. Think about the effects on the NBA: how long has it taken for the Cavs to get out from under Larry Hughes’s contract? Sure, I guess we “turned him into” Shaq, but that is hugely a product of the NBA’s current culture of shedding salary, not a trade of equal basketball value. And we endured several years of subpar play from Hughes.
The cap also means that one or two bad contracts can cripple a team for whole decades. We would be lucky to compete in 2011 with Wood’s and Hafner’s contracts if there were a salary cap. And the salary matching rules in trades, at least in the NBA, mean the same bad teams are trading around overpaid players. The Cavs have been lucky to come out of that cycle, but look at the Larry Hughes/Ben Wallace trade. Sure Wallace did some nice things, but $14 million (or whatever) of nice things? No. Look at the way Zach Randolph has bounced among the Knicks, Clippers, and Grizzlies. Each of those teams has bad contracts that they are trying to get out from under, and can’t, so they’re locked in the NBA basement for a while.
In the MLB at least, contracts can be swallowed if the owner is willing. If it looked like Wood or Hafner were keeping us from competing, they could be replaced without their contracts continuing to keep us from competing.
Sorry that turned out long.
TL;DR version: I’m glad baseball is the way it is. I’m glad the Indians, with their economics, have chosen a strategy of lows and highs rather than trying to compete each year.
“And we endured several years of subpar play from Hughes.”
thats not true at all. we endured several years of play from larry hughes which was right on par with what we should have expected from larry hughes.
Good thought provoking article… but I think for a lot of Tribe fans… the problem is we keep hearing this talk about the Indians being “championship contenders”. I know I drank the kool-aid back in 2002 when Shapiro said we would contend. At last count, we made it to the playoffs ONCE.
So, to hear Shapiro spew the same rhetoric again, it’s very hard to put full faith into it!
Plus… screw being “championship contenders”… I just want to see the Indians win the World Series ONCE before I die ! I don’t just want to contend… I want to WIN THE WHOLE THING ! Just ONCE !
I also don’t have faith that if the Indians are contenders at some point, that when the trading deadline comes around they will have the guts to make a deal! They will “stay the course” and not pull the trigger on a deal!
“The cap also means that one or two bad contracts can cripple a team for whole decades. ”
one or two bad contracts will cripple a mid- or small-market teams for years and years, with or without a cap.
“I know Shapiro didn’t pull Drabek, OF Dominic Brown (#24 on the MLB list), or OF Michael Taylor (#20) in the deal, but it’s been reported that the Indians could have had either Brown or Taylor in the place of Marson or Knapp. They passed because they felt like they had plenty of corner OF options coming soon (i.e Michael Brantley and Nick Weglarz).”
I don’t believe either of these contentions. Shapiro has wasted the few corner outfielders that have come up through the system, giving them away for nothing. This is pure spin, saying that the Indians preferred a guy who projects out as a backup catcher over two top-25 talents. I was with you right up until that kool-aid-drinking moment.
Ugh — lots of words about a team that has committed to suck this year and next. I thought your rule was to ignore teams with no hope of success in the near future? Can’t you find a better use for your time?
@44,
To be fair, we were there in ‘07. Small market teams don’t get shots at championships every year in the MLB. We got the shot, and blew it.
I’d be upset if I was an Indians fan. So good two years ago to a fire sale type mentality in 2008 and 2009.
Cleveland Indians Front Office to Fans: “We Stopped Caring After We Traded Sabathia” (Satire)
I went to the Captains game on Friday… reasons it was a good time:
1. Every seat is $9.
2. It was Omar Vizquel bobblehead (first 1500, I got 1)
3. It was the mascot’s birthday, so area mascots were there to celebrate (minus Slider)… I am 21 years old and I was still wildly entertained by their antics.
4. The fireworks after the game were actually pretty impressive.
5. The Beer Batter struck out, so I got a half-price Labatt Draft
6. FUNNEL CAKE FRIES. Not kidding. Funnel Cake batter in french fry form with powdered sugar, and they were only like $3. Infact all the food is priced reasonably for a ballpark.
7. Parking is only $5 right next to the park.
We actually have a unique opportunity with all our minor league affiliates except Kinston inside our state, so I suggest you go out to a game. Find a promotion that interests you and go, it is always a good time.
the only thing I hold against Shapiro is keeping Wedge around for so long. Hopefully he fixes this after this year
@44- The MLB can have a salary cap like the the NFL. Just a straight heres the limit, dont go over, dont need to match contracts or w/e. I don’t see that really happening though because of the Yankees and Red Sox. (the loss of immediate income for those teams and the MLB would protect them)
Also, I would question the notion that Cleveland is a small market team. Detroit is pretty equal with cleveland, but they have an owner that will spend. Same in St. Louis. We have a small market Owner, and thats the big difference. I don’t know who can honestly say they like being true competitors only every few years because it is a ’strategy.’ I would want the team I root for to win every year. Would anyone like the Cavs to start trading players to build for a few years? No, they want to lock good young players, then add the few veterans every now and then to form a competing team year in and year out.
TD
Excellent article. We all want instant gratification and the Cliff Lees and Vmarts provide that. However, the new prospects strengthen the team for several years and if by perchance the Indians are competitive next year, they have the money to make a deadline trade. I have season tickets for 28 games next year and I am not canceling.
Many of these prospects are close to major league ready and their success rate is over 50%. The 20% figure includes prospects at lower levels and lower skills, not the top five.
At the very least, the Indians are a whole lot better than any AAA team and major league teams like Pittsburgh,Baltimore,K.C., Oakland and San Diego.
Don’t people go to minor league parks? So why not go to to see this major league team playing in a beautiful stadium, which has tickets at prices less than ten dollars.
@ #52:
Sure, the MLB’s implementation of a salary cap could be different from the other sports. My point is that the lack of a salary cap isn’t what keeps the Indians from competing, or that we shouldn’t desire a salary cap because it would help the Indians. I don’t think it would hep them.
I agree that the character of the owner matters a lot for a team. That said, the Indians seem to have lost the base of fans they had in the mid- to late-90s, and then LeBron James came along to rescue Cleveland from the sports basement. A lot of the city’s sports entertainment dollars are going to him, I bet. True or false: LeBron James: worst thing to happen to the Cleveland Indians? (That’s tongue-in-cheek, but I think he is affecting the economics.)
I don’t know who can honestly say they like being true competitors only every few years because it is a ’strategy.’
I respect the desire to compete every year. I just don’t think that trying to compete every year gives the Indians the highest chance to win a championship. Better to build a class of solid prospects, bring them up together and really go for it for a couple years. Then, of course, all your good players get paid by bigger spenders and you rebuild. My view is that being really good for a couple years, even if it seems to be statistically unlikely, gives a higher chance of a championship than trying to compete with a middling payroll every year. Even with a very large payroll, it takes a lot of luck to win a championship.
We like the moves the Tribe are making.
Signed,
Berea
what is this nonsense about “drinking the kool-aid” cr*p? I’m pretty tired of the saying because it doesn’t really make any argument…just sounds like a juvenile deflection…
if you want to disagree with the moves, fine, but the kool-aid argument is not really valid…are people using that to say that we have been hoodwinked? how exactly does that happen? the indians are not an evil team, hell-bent on alienating their fan base…theyre doing what they think they need to do to run a successful team/franchise/business…
if you disagree with it, as was stated earlier, and you dont like what theyre doing, theres no one holding a gun to your head and making you root for the Indians…the Yanks, BoSox and Phils are always accepting fans…
@56… YES… we are saying that we were hoodwinked to believe we would contend back in 2002 when they traded Colon for 3 prospects and Lee Stevens.
Then when it comes time to pay the prospects that got good, we can’t afford to keep them and dump their salary.
It doesn’t mean we think the Indians are evil… it just means we’ve heard the same thing over and over with this regime and last time I checked, we didn’t win a darn thing !
If you are saying that Shapiro is good at past trades, why do you only highlight the Choos and other good trades? Why do you ignore all the trades that turned out bad? There are more than you realize. Any one else know Ed Mujica’s ERA is this year?
@DK 56: The reason why it could possibly be perceived as drinking the Kool-aid is because it seems some times like teams want to make their money from revenue sharing and 12,000 fans a night, rather than commit $80,000,000 to compete and wait for the money to come in from big crowds and lots of merchandise.
So they never allow their payroll to get anywhere (Marquee signing!!!Dave Delucci!!!) and always talk about being good, when they have no intention of ever being consistently good.
Here’s what everyone is forgetting…the Indians COULD compete next year. However, it would require making decent trades and spending some money on free agents, two things that Dolan and Shapiro can’t do.
I wouldn’t mind a team with a core of Lee, Martinez, Sizemore, Cabrera, Choo, and Derosa. You build around that, but we’re dealing with an owner who isn’t rich enough to own a Major League franchise….unfortunately for Cleveland.
And will you fans please stop blaming the “small market”. Do you honestly think that Dan Gilbert would run the team this way???
DKH- I would have to disagree in saying that getting prospects up for a max 2 year window to win a championship is the best statistical way. If they are competing year in and year out at the top of the AL central then they are a few (8) wins out of the WS, and who knows what happens from there. If you can lock these young guys up, such as Cabrera, Sizemore, Victor, Choo, and Lee, then put in a mix of young and older role players around them, then you can compete consistently. Instead, they gave their money to guys like Westbrook and Hafner. I just wonder if Hafner isnt getting a huge paycheck that he doesnt deserve then the Indians might be more willing to pay these younger, more effective players. A DH who can’t really field should never be given a ton of cash cause if he slumps, or busts, your in trouble.
@23….
You need to get outside of Cleveland more then…
@59 – it still doesnt explain the use of “drinking the koolaid”…who even says that other than when a mom talks to her son or daughter during their afternoon snack?
and do you people forget that they DID sign free agents this year and it STILL didnt work…HELLO…we were 18 games under 500 when they made the trades…the only reason people are upset is because of name recognition…if having those guys on this team RESULTED in being 18 games under 500 and we are 2 yrs removed from a playoff team, with no appreciable minor league power arms/guys MLB ready…then why stick with what isnt working? the same people that complained about the indians not being worth the price of admission are the same people complaining about the trades…seems like theres no pleasing 75% of cleveland fans…you try to lock up talent that seems good to build around (hafner, westbrook), sign them to contracts that will keep them here, only to have them get injured or underperform…
damned if you do, damned if you dont…
The Browns have not reached the ultimate goal in a while. They have been mediocre (which keeps you interested) alot. But since 1999 Management has been kind of lost. But you only have 16 games to folow and we are never out until half way.
The Indians on the other hand went to the World Series and fielded some very good teams. Now we have turned into a minor league squad for the rest of the league. We start slow every year. We are pretty much out of it by All Star break. And we still have 80 more games. That is a long time to follow a team that is selling off stars for A and AA players.
I watch the Browns, follow the Cavs and read about the Indians. I am 52 years old and have been a Cleveland fan all my life. Fell in love with the Browns forever when a guy from my high school (Paul Warfield) made the team.
Can I add something into this discussion? Take a quick look at Clay Buchholz’s numbers in the majors:
Career he is 6-11 with a 5.29 ERA. 12 HR given up with 58 walks and 105 strikeouts. Couple into the equation his last start at Baltimore where he was rocked, and I am OK with not getting him. In 118 innings pitched in the majors he has given up 135 hits, and in his last 100 innings alone he has allowed 180 baserunners!
Then take a look at his Triple A numbers and you will see why he is so ‘coveted’. He kills it in the minors. Im glad we got Masterson instead.
DK… did you want the definition of “don’t drink the kool aid” ?
Here it is…
A reference to the 1978 cult mass-suicide in Jonestown, Guyana. Jim Jones, the leader of the group, convinced his followers to move to Jonestown. Late in the year he then ordered his flock to commit suicide by drinking grape-flavored Kool-Aid laced with potassium cyanide. In what is now commonly called “the Jonestown Massacre”, 913 of the 1100 Jonestown residents drank the Kool-Aid and died.
One lasting legacy of the Jonestown tragedy is the saying, “Don’t drink the Kool-Aid.” This has come to mean, “Don’t trust any group you find to be a little on the kooky side.” or “Whatever they tell you, don’t believe it too strongly”.
A LOT of people use that phrase… and it definitely applies to the current Cleveland Indians organization… they tell you what they want you to believe… it’s up to the fans to err on the side of caution to not believe EVERYTHING they are saying ! We believed it once and due to ineffective deals/trades etc… we didn’t win a darn thing.
@66 – thanks! that makes sense…I had never heard that until people started using it on here…
the same can be said for any front office in any city though…the browns said the pickups they made after the 10-6 season were gonna put them over the top…the cavs thought Larry Hughes was the answer, yet they get a free pass…i have no problem with them saying what theyre saying, because they believe it will make them better, and i agree…I think all of the moves they made are legit and think most will pan out…
@65 – agreed…i was not impressed with clay…i had not really heard alot about masterson and hagadone, but I am impressed now…
[...] in my euphoric look into the future yesterday (ha ha) is the fact that the current version of the Indians is still a very flawed collection of [...]
I gave up long ago. The Tribe may as well be a AAA team for the rest of the MLB. We take prospects, and we take gambles that have yet to prove themselves. The second they are proven, we deal them off for more prospects. This is no way to have a competitive team.
Fans would come to watch a contender. At least the Browns try to contend, that’s why I will continue to support them.
hahahah..theres no comparison…3-13, 4-12. and no TDs for 6 games…and thats trying????
at least theres an even playing field in the NFL…salary cap etc…
apples to oranges…
hahahahah… there is no comparison. There were a weatlh of injuries and coaching incompetence during that stretch of no TDs — I dare you to point to one move the management made that made the Browns worse, intentionally.
You can’t compare sports because baseball is broken and the Indians are on the unfortunate side of that equation. Being a Browns fan is clearly better, but it sure seems like this website is bitter about it.
Maybe everyone is fed up because it’s the same old song and dance routine with the Indians. We raise our home grown talent until they reach a point where they deserve to be paid and then…bye bye. Why trade for prospects which we won’t/can’t sign in the upcoming years. Wouldn’t it be better to trade Lee and Victor for straight up Cash? That seems to be the only thing the Indians and interested in. We traded Colon for up in coming prospects (Sizemore and Lee) and we sent one packing. Look out Grady if you have a career year you’ll be next. Sorry Cliff you performed way to good to stay with the Indians. Instead of trading for prospects we plan on keeping for the future to build and contend the Indians instead use them as bait to sucker the fans into purchasing tickets. The Indians need a owner who is devoted to winning and keeping our home grown talent for fans to cheer for. The Indians have one of the deepest farm systems why not trade any of those guys? Oh wait that’s because we need them to play on the Major league roster when we fire sale our true talent. We need those guys who make the league minimum so Dolan doesn’t have to worry about cancelling his country club memberships. Go Tribe
@72 … please. Jacobs didn’t spend a penny for eight/nine years after he bought the franchise. He couldn’t have cared less about winning. Always near or at the bottom of the major league in payroll. A miser. Those are facts, man, something everybody conveniently ignores or just don’t have the foggiest clue even exists. Compared to Jacobs, Dolan is freakin’ Rocky Balboa melded with Santa Claus.
its all about money the dolans just dont have it never did and never will! get it right its the bottom line that matters the most. go tribe and browns!
To the writer of this website…you are an idiot!!! Keep drinking the kool aid moron………