Which Team Will be the Next 2008 Browns?
Written By: Craig | Category: Cleveland Browns | Comments: 21
I know it must seem like ages ago, but does anyone remember how much fun 2007 was with this Browns team? We were watching the team go 10-6 with Derek Anderson at the helm. We thought that this team was finally on the precipice of something meaningful. We thought the team had a chance to go to the playoffs. Between injuries, bad coaching and serious regression the team followed up that 10 win season with the 4-win stinker that we all remember so clearly. So that got me thinking. What teams are set up to fail miserably on the heels of success they had a year ago just like the Browns did to us a year ago?
One of the keys to failure last year for the Browns was regression of Derek Anderson. Yes, Braylon Edwards dropped some footballs. Still, I am figuring at least one or more of the QBs that stepped up a year ago for one of these other floundering teams will end up being much less successful this season. First, let me lay out some groundwork. When the Browns had their 10-6 season that was on the heels of a 4-12 season meaning a 6 win differential. The teams with the highest win differentials that year were as follows.
2007
- Cleveland (10-6) 6 wins more than 2006
- Green Bay (13-3) 5 wins more
- Tampa (9-7) 5 wins more
- Dallas (13-3) 4 wins more
- Detroit (7-9) 4 wins more
- New England (16-0) 4 wins more
- Washington (9-7) 4 wins more
- Arizona (8-8) 4 wins more
Of course, after leading the league in win differential in 2007, we know how the Browns did in 2008. But they didn’t lead the league in negative win differential in 2008. The Browns were tied for second worst with -6.
2008 NEGATIVE Win Differential
- Green Bay (6-10) -7
- Detroit (0-16) -7
- Seattle (4-12) -6
- Jacksonville (5-11) -6
- Cleveland (4-12) -6
- New England (11-5) -5
- Dallas (9-7) -4
- San Diego (8-8) -3
As you can see the worst ones were both Cleveland and Green Bay. In Green Bay’s case it was the transition year of Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers. We all know what happened to Cleveland. So now a look at the teams that “made the jump” in 2008 like we assumed Cleveland had done in 2007.
2008
- Miami (11-5) +10
- Atlanta (11-5) +7
- Baltimore (11-5) +6
- Carolina (12-4) +5
- New York Jets (9-7) +5
- Tennessee (13-3) +3
- Chicago (9-7) +2
- Minnesota (10-6) +2
First of all, I think we can assume Minnesota, Chicago, Tennessee and Baltimore can be removed from contention for giant regressions. In the case of Tennessee and Baltimore even if they falter at the QB position, their defenses and running games should be good enough to insulate them from too bad a regression. Minnesota and Chicago have improved in the QB position with Brett Favre heading to Minnesota and Cutler now in Chicago. So you have to think that eliminates them from contention. That leaves the biggest contenders to pull a 2008 Cleveland Browns move as Miami, Atlanta and of course the New York Jets.
In Miami it isn’t exactly impossible to believe that Chad Pennington might falter. He is far from a lock. On the bright side for Miami they do have the Wildcat offense as a potential insulating factor to seeing them fall off too far. Also Atlanta has the potential due to the fact that there is now a year’s worth of data on Matt Ryan just like there was last year on Derek Anderson. That isn’t to say that Matt Ryan and Derek Anderson are anywhere near the same pedigree.
Anyway, if you all had to guess which team is going to be the equivalent of the 2008 Cleveland Browns this upcoming season, which one do you think it will be?
Author: CraigLyndall
Craig Lyndall has been writing about all the Cleveland sports teams at WaitingForNextYear since September 2008. When he isn't, you can find him selling insurance or playing music. Follow WFNYCraig on Twitter.Craig Lyndall has written 338 articles for Waiting for Next Year.
I would have to say the Jets, they’re going with a rookie qb and a new head coach. They’re D will be good, which will keep them in games. But no real number 1 WR will hurt the chances of success for their rookie QB. Atlanta has too many weapons on offense (roddy white, michael turner, norwood, list goes on….)
I think the Buccaneers are going to have a hard season. Yeah they have Winslow, but I think they are not a good team right now
The Colts
Miami all the way. Last year’s schedule, that fluke game by Ronnie Brown… It just has the making for an ugly season now that the rest of the division seems to have improved as well… Well, accept for the Jets.
I’ll go with the Saints…something tells me Brees gets hurt this year…
Falcons. Michael Turner had a lot of carries last year and the league has had a year to prepare for Matt Ryan. I also wouldn’t be surprised if the Dolphins finish under .500 as well.
The Jets are the obvious choice….rookie coach, rookie QB, lost a ton of depth (to us mostly), RB had a career year out of nowhere (T. Jones) and they built their wins on the back of a player who is gone (Favre – before he hurt his shoulder and lost them the games down the stretch).
Atlanta has the added factor of having a soft schedule last year….and a tough one this year. Their record will suffer (comparatively).
Miami also had a pretty soft schedule and Penny is only healthy every other year.
Baltimore could see Flacco suffer in big games again (his numbers aren’t as bullet-proof as some suggest) and their defense is thinner and older at key spots.
Collins is already hurt for Tennessee and VY isn’t exactly tearing things up in preseason.
Carolina seems bulletproof until you remember Delhomme is their QB (most similar QB in the NFL to Derek Anderson in that he is hot/cold…can win a game for you just as easily as he can lose it).
Minnesota just invited a ton of drama with Favre and did nothing to fix their pass defense in the offseason.
Chicago’s defense is old and injury prone….and Cutler still needs guys to throw the ball to.
Basically, it’s the NFL….you can make arguments for/against virtually any team.
My wife is a falcons season ticket holder and I keep telling her its going to be a long year for them. They had a cup cake schedule last year and a very difficult one this year. Sound familiar?
Ha I love how the Pats were -5 and still 11-5 (and missed the playoffs!). I would kill for -5
11-5 that is.
Gotta be the Jets. They weren’t all that good to begin with last year, and that rookie QB should have some tough outings.
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i’m going Balt or Indy.
Indy O-line may be the worst in the league.
Baltimore has no one to throw to the ball to.
Tennessee. Kerry Collins turns 52 next month. Vince Young is loony. They have no receivers and their 2nd year running back is fragile. The only thing keeping their heads above water is their defense.
I think the Jets are a 6 win team at best and both Miami and Atlanta will have a hard time going 8-8 this year.
Jets have a brutal schedule and a rookie QB. They have all the trappings of a 4-win team this year…
I also like the Tennessee pick that some folks had mentioned. Seems like there were alot of Tennessee games on down here in C-bus last year, and when watching them I just could not figure out for the life of me how they would win games…they just don’t seem that good.
The steelers have no where to go but down. I see big ben getting hurt this season for two reasons. 1. O-line still weak. 2. Lawsuits, legitimate or not, add mental strain. I see lapses in concentration leading to big hits. His bread and butter is performing once the pocket collapses and I don’t see any other QB excelling in their system, at least compared to last year.
NYJ will have a worse overall record than Atlanta, but ATL will have a bigger regression – #6 & #8 speak the truth.
the lions
but seriously i think the steelers are a good choice here…with big ben ailing physically and mentally (off field issues) and fast willie being dinged up i think the steelers (as mentioned before) have no where to go but down…plus you cant continue to get lucky like they did last year…they had a number of games that they easily should have lost
I hate the steelers!