Who Will Be the Final Cuts for the Browns?
September 1, 2009Clip Show: Keeping an Eye on the Tribe’s AAA Squad – 9/1/09
September 1, 2009
With the influx of new blood infused into the Indians organization over the past month and a half, it seems like we are getting a test of something new every game. Guys like Matt LaPorta, Chris Perez, Andy Marte, and Jess Todd have gotten plenty of opportunities to show that they are indeed a part of this team’s future.
The next kid to get his chance is 22-year old Carlos Carrasco. The right-handed starting pitcher will be recalled today to make his major league debut for the Tribe in Detroit against the Tigers.
Before their was Kyle Drabek in the Philadelphia system, there was Carrasco. He throws hard and was said to have considerable upside as a top of the rotation starter. Carrasco, who was the starting pitcher for the World team in last year’s MLB Future’s game, was deemed “untouchable” at last year’s trading deadline when the Phillies were looking to add veterans to aid their World Series push.
He struggled in AAA Lehigh Valley this year (20 Starts, 6-9, 5.18 ERA, 112 K’s, 38 Walks, 114.2 IP) and became expendable. So the Indians jumped at the chance to add this one-time top prospect in the Phillies system considering his high strikeout numbers and young age. The thought was that maybe a change of scenery would do him some good.
So far, so good for Carrasco as a member of the Indians organization.
In six starts, Carlos is 5-1 with a 3.19 ERA. In 42.1 IP, he has posted a very impressive 0.89 WHIP, striking out 36 and walking just seven. All signs point to him being ready for the big club. Tuesday, he gets that shot.
“I’m excited to see him, to get him up here and get him started on this part of his journey,” Eric Wedge said. “As a young pitcher, I don’t want anybody to expect too much, I don’t think that’s fair to the kid, but I just want him to come up here and get as comfortable as possible, help him relax and have fun.”
Adding Carrasco to the rotation means a move must be made. With rookie David Huff at his career high in innings pitched, Wedge and Mark Shapiro have decided the best thing to do is to go to a six man rotation, giving Huff, Aaron Laffey, and Jeremy Sowers all extra rest.
”We’re just skipping a start for Huff,” Wedge said. ”We’ll pick spots for some of the other guys to be skipped. When you get into September, skipping guys and getting them extra work days on the side isn’t a bad thing.”
The rotation options for 2010 look very intriguing and wide-open. Laffey and Justin Masterson are the locks, and expect David Huff to be in the rotation as well. Who knows what you are going to get out of the up and down Fausto Carmona and Jake Westbrook who will be returning after a year and a half hiatus. Then you have Sowers who is out of options and has pitched much better of late and the organization’s top pitching prospect, Hector Rondon along with Carrasco.
That is why this last month could be crucial for Carrasco to get a leg up on his competition. That all starts tonight in Detroit.
(photo by Danny Wild/MLB.com)
12 Comments
I read things like “expect David Huff to be in the rotation as well” and it makes me sad.
Tonights the night…. Lets give it up… I got my money…
I like the Cavs logo on his jersey.
Here’s to hopin the kid has a good outing and can build on it…if he pitches well, and looks legit, thats a lot of young blood on this team…lots of 22-25 yr olds with promise…I still stand by the statement I made when the trades happened, this team is better now than at the beginning of the year…they’re not going to win it all next year, but by all accounts, should be improved over the past 2 years…
@ #4 — You better hope he doesn’t pitch too well…or he’ll be traded, lol.
@5 sigh…really? do you really think that if he pitches well that they will trade him? i know you said it tongue in cheek, but cmon…this doomsday, woe-is-me, Cleveland Indians are out to destroy baseball in Cleveland junk is just so played out already…just enjoy baseball for what it is…
[…] heard of before this), and then summarily sending him to Akron. and most recently comes word that RHP Carlos Carrasco got the call, as […]
I just looked at Carrasco’s minor league stats, and found something interesting.
In 2008, when he was considered a top prospect, he went 9-9 with a 3.69 ERA, split between AA and AAA. He gave up 0.8 HR and 3.4 BB per IP, and struck 9.2 per IP. These are pretty good perepheral stats, though the walks are a bit high.
In 2009, he has gone 11-10 with a 4.64 overall. He has allowed 1.0 HR and 2.6 BB per IP, and struck out 8.5 per IP. These are also pretty good peripheral stats, with the walks going down a bit (a good sign) and the strike outs dropping a touch. Also, keep in mind that he accumulated these numbers while spending the entire year in AAA, as opposed to splitting time between two levels.
My conclusion is that there must be some luck involved in the nearly one-run difference in ERA. Now I am not a scout, and I understand the shortcomings of using a completely “numbers based” approach. Mediocre prospects can put up some gaudy numbers in the minors, particularly given the right environment and a bit of luck, and particularly when repeating levels. Conversely, talented players may inexplicably struggle for a period, only to eventually make adjustments and show that those numbers aren’t true reflections of their ability. Two players may have the same minor league stats, yet one be graded an A prospect and the other a C, because scouting matters. We should always be a bit skeptical of any statistic unless we give it context.
Still, I come back to the numbers because Carrasco is a legitimate prospect with projectable stuff, but has largely been seen as taking a step back this year. His strike outs, walks, and home runs allowed suggest that his actual performance hasn’t been all that different than last year’s. These ratios suggest that he’s just been unlucky. The fielding behind him has stunk, or a few ground balls found holes, or a few fly balls managed to drop in just the right places. These things largely even out in time.
I’d never really looked at the kid’s numbers before today. Obviously, he could struggle against MLB hitting, but I am optimistic. I like the Lee trade slightly more today than I did yesterday (disclaimer, I still don’t like the Lee trade very much).
The collective disgruntlement of mid-to-small market fans and shifting away of revenue from baseball is in fact one of the few pressures that may allow for more significant shifts towards a cap system. This is not the usual, woe-is-me grumbling of the sports fan since we advocate for a constructive change of the game that would help our team not go through these ridiculous cycles.
Taking things as they are and accepting the constant turnstyle of your home grown stars won’t improve the game. Its my understanding that we’ve finally gotten rid of one of the worst leaders of any player’s association in any sport.
Its good to never miss an opportunity to enjoy the sport of baseball, but its certainly not the time to stop complaining about the business.
@ 8 – nice comment Doracle…quality insight using facts and stats…very nicely done…
There are certain things that pitchers can attribute things to, and one other I would like to mention, that may not be something some think about, is this…just as any other players in the minors are spending time developing their game, catchers are doing the same…not saying that this is able to explain the change in the numbers, but as you talk about the different ways in which numbers can be skewed, this might be a part of it…I can attest to even something so trivial as the catcher being in the right spot to frame a pitch, or to call a good game…if they want you to work on pumping your 2 seamer over the inside part of the plate, and the catcher routinely grabs for it instead of framing it, those little things can become bothersome to the pitcher…
again, not a plausible reason for the increase in a whole run for ERA, but just something else to think about…sometimes guys with a lot of movement have a bit of trouble with younger catchers in the minors…
that being said, I hope they let Toregas catch this kid as opposed to Shophack…
@ Eli – I completely agree that changes need to be made…that being said, I dont think that becoming negative, grumpy old men because they traded players away that, in their own words, said that the fans are part of the problem (Cliff Lee’s interview in the paper last week), and that they weren’t supporting the team, will do any good…yes, they traded away Cy Young winners…they werent going to stay here anyways as we cannot afford them…
I hope they do even the playing field out so that all teams have the chance to retain their star players…but belly-aching about it ad nauseum rather than being excited for the young kids hungry to win and prove themselves keeps me very happy…if you want to worry about what could have been, then thats your right…I prefer to take a positive outlook on The Tribe, and look at the possibility that this team is on the cusp of a very nice run…the guys we traded were part of the same group that the fans didnt support because they didnt think they were worth it, or at least felt that the Cavs were worth it instead…(nothing wrong with supporting the Cavs, just sayin)…
Last guy I saw pitch for the Tribe with a bright red glove blew a save in game 7 of the world series…
/guh