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December 1, 2009WFNY Ch-Ch-Ch-Ch-Changes…
December 1, 2009
Earlier today I vented my disgust and frustration with the Cavaliers. Particularly, I took exception with Mike Brown humiliating Zydrunas Ilgauskas by giving him his first (that we know of) DNP-CD of his career on the night he had friends and family in town to help him celebrate breaking Danny Ferry’s record for career games played in the Wine and Gold.
In that post, I made a mention of the Cavaliers’ early season struggles when I said:
“Now, [Mike Brown] has an already struggling team full of players who are clearly upset with his decision.”
One of our readers, Titus Pullo, took exception to this claim that the Cavaliers are struggling. He left the following comment:
“And I’m not sure I would classify a team that is 12-3 over its last 15 games (which works out to … wait for it … a 65-win pace) a “struggling” team.”
I suppose on face value this is certainly a fair statement. After all, at the end of the day, wins and losses really are the only things that really matter and the only things that are remembered. Nobody cares how the Cavaliers win, fans just want them to come out with the ‘W’ every night in whatever manner possible. So I can understand where Titus is coming from.
This got me to thinking, though. Are the Cavaliers really struggling?
The word “struggling” is, of course, quite subjective. One team’s struggles is another team’s accomplishments. Different teams have different goals, different expectations, and different thresholds for satisfaction. Certainly there are plenty of teams in the NBA who would love to be in the Cavaliers’ position. For Cleveland, there is only one goal, though, and so by that standard it’s hard not to feel like this is a struggling team.
Based on Basketball-Reference.com’s efficiency numbers, the Cavaliers are currently 12th in the NBA in Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions) and 9th in Defensive Rating (points per 100 possessions).
For comparison, just go back to the last 10 NBA Champions and see where they ranked.
- 2008-09 Lakers – Off: 3rd, Def: 6th
- 2007-08 Celtics – Off: 10th, Def: 1st
- 2006-07 Spurs – Off: 5th, Def: 2nd
- 2005-06 Heat – Off: 7th, Def: 9th
- 2004-05 Spurs – Off: 8th, Def: 1st
- 2003-04 Pistons – Off: 18th, Def: 2nd
- 2002-03 Spurs – Off: 7th, Def: 3rd
- 2001-02 Lakers – Off: 2nd, Def: 7th
- 2000-01 Lakers – Off: 2nd, Def: 21st
- 1999-00 Lakers – Off: 5th, Def: 1st
It’s remarkable to note that every single Champion with the exception of one, the 2006 Miami Heat, is ranked in the top 3 in the Association in either offensive or defensive efficiency. Only two of these teams, the 2004 Pistons and the 2001 Lakers, finished worse than 10th in either category.
In other words, to win an NBA title, you can’t just back your way into it. You have to be exceptional at either offense or defense, and in most cases, both. The Cavaliers this year are exceptional at neither offense nor defense.
Of course, on the other hand, the Cavaliers were 4th in Offensive Rating and 3rd in Defensive Rating last year and we know how that story ended. Being exceptional at both doesn’t guarantee you a Championship, but it’s awfully tough to win one without it.
Beyond just efficiency, the Cavaliers are struggling by other means as well. Using the Simple Rating System (SRS) they are 13th in the NBA. And while the Cavaliers are, indeed, 12-3 in their last 15, they’ve played the 5th easiest schedule in the NBA in terms of opponents’ Win%. To be fair, the two 4-games-in-5-nights stretches they’ve had to far have made that number a bit deceiving, but what will happen to the Cavs’ record when they start playing more good teams?
Obviously this team is loaded with potential. That’s why it bothers me to see this team looking so pedestrian and beatable. I don’t criticize them because I’m trying to be a pessimist or anything like that. I criticize this team because I know how good this team can be and I know they are not even close to realizing their potential. And that’s essentially the definition of “struggling”. To fall short of one’s potential. Unmet expectations. I have no doubt every single player on that team knows they can and should be playing better. The wins are coming without the performance as of right now, but it’s a dangerous game to play chicken with your potential when it comes time to face the elite teams in this league.
So are the Cavaliers really struggling? I would say they are. They are struggling to become greater than the sum of their parts. They are struggling to become what this team was meant to be.
30 Comments
i couldn’t care less about the team strugg-a-ling
/Namath’d
I think a lot of fans just got used to the Cavs working teams to 20-point leads last season – now they actually have to work for it. Factor in that we were a 65-win team and supposedly got better, and it’s tough to see these guys getting beat by a Charlotte or Toronto in the manner which they were.
Agreed Scott. Also when we do have a 15-20 point lead this year, we don’t hold it, like last years team did. I agree the Cavs are struggling. And they’re biggest point of struggle? Finding this teams “identity”. This is a far different team than last year’s amazing team, and I think until there is a solid rotation established, that works effectivley, this team will continue to struggle.
I think you can see a lot of last year’s Cavs in this year’s Hawks. They move quickly, they gel, and they are blowing out teams, unless there’s some horrible physical mismatch (ironically, they have problems with Orlando).
The Cavs’ “struggles” have more to do with Delonte’s game-to-game status, everyone’s desire to involve Shaq too much in the offense, and LeBron taking off more defensive possessions than he did last year. By switching our starting lineup from last year (AP->Delonte, Shaq->Z), we became a more traditional lineup. Now we don’t exploit early mismatches, and we have to fight to get back into games when we don’t have that cushion.
I’m encouraged that the Cavs have room to get better. They haven’t been horrible but they haven’t played their best and even at playing below their expectations they have one of the better records in the league. This team is playing below their potential and still winning. Now look at Boston. They played as well as they are going to play in their first game and have been played the same on their best nights and worse in the others. I think they are treating this season as a marathon and are patiently trying to work in all the new parts and see what works. Maybe once Brown figures out his rotations and the players feel comfortable we’ll see some fire like last year. I think a big part of that will be getting Delonte to consistently contribute like he did on Saturday.
It’s a balancing act. Sure, it was fun watching the team last year with the starters taking the fourth quarter off and not really having to worry most nights. But the bottom line is to win and that’s what the team is currently doing, and they are doing it through Shaq’s injury, Delonte’s problems, changing starting lineups and working new guys into the system.
You can’t compare this year to last year because the regular season last year was so off the charts and unexpected that the only way the Cavs could exceed it would be to win 75 games or something crazy like that. But that’s not the goal this year, the goal is to be healthy and playing well – and up to their potential – heading into the playoffs. And I’ll trade the occasional puzzling loss to Charlotte or some other bottom team if it means the Cavs get wins against Orlando (have we forgotten that road win already), Boston, Atlanta, etc.
It’s a long season and strange things happen. And with everything that’s gone on so far, the Cavs are only 1.5 games out of the top spot in the East. And that’s not a bad place to be right now.
on the other hand, they manhandled orlando on the road and dallas at home. the cavs look good to me. its a long season with ebbs and flows. everything in the nba is pretty subjective as far as scheduling goes. you can play 4 games in 5 nights against the 4 worst teams in the league. at the end of the day, its still 4 games in 5 nights which is REALLY tough to do for any team against any set of opponents.
I concur that the Cavs are struggling by their own standards (not to mention anyone with building expectations). Their ball movement on offense seems like it is not necessarily designed to make opportunities, but to placate people who want to see ball movement. On defense they are getting caught out of position and look like they are reserving their energy. It is possible that last year was the best year that last year’s team was going to see, with a not-quite-ready Mo and a last-hurrah Z. Now they have a readier Mo but a no-hurrah Z. Forgetting last year may be the best thing we can do this year.
My theory is that the talk of the Cavs struggling runs concurrent to the amount of time LeBron spends playing PG.
after being so incredibly anxious for the season to start, i admit that i have been a little disappointed with our play so far. however, i have believed for a little while now that we are just not as worried about the regular season as we were last year. thus, i have tempered my expectations for the regular season.
as a few people have said, we have not reached our true potential as a team yet, and probably wont until after the all-star break. by that time we should know whether or not delonte will be able to contribute consistently. leon powe will hopefully be on his way back. and theres a good chance we’ll be involved in a deadline deal. so theres no real way to know just how good we will be come playoff time.
all that said, look at the teams we have won and lost to so far – the only good team to beat us so far has been boston. now granted that was a huge letdown in the season opener, and a gutwrenching deja vu of the ECF in that we took off to a huge lead in the beginning only to piss it away, but again, this was the first real game the team played together. as for the other teams we’ve lost to – toronto, chicago, washington, and charlotte – im not the least bit worried about losing to any of these teams in a 7 game series like i was when orlando beat us in the regular season last year.
on the flip side, we walked into florida and swept orlando and miami on back to back nights, and just took down one of the better teams in the west in dallas. 3 quality wins vs 1 understandable quality loss (boston).
so i guess my answer to whether or not the cavs are struggling – to the untrained eye of the fans that dont watch every game and media that like to stir up controversy, yes. yes we are struggling SO FAR to reach our potential and to play like a cohesive team for 48 minutes. but id much rather struggle at this point in the season than in the ECF…
The Cavs are simply disinterested in the REGULAR season right now. Reading some of the Cavs posts here over the past few week reminds of something I would see on a Lakers blog. The Cavs are fine, enjoy the season.
@11:
I think this might be the Shaq Effect. This team has been so different since he got here and I think it is for the better. The are as focused as ever, just not on having the best record during the regular season. LeBron is focused. He is dialed in when he’s on the floor. Notice how he never helps anyone up or congratulates a teammate after an ‘And 1.’ He just walks to mid court and waits to play defense. I like it. He just needs to not let his drive take him out of his game. Letting people like Stevenson and the guy from Philly in his head isn’t good for anyone except our opponents.
This is a real problem when the Playoffs start tomorrow. Oh, they start in four and a half months? Huh. Guess all the statistical information about how good (or bad) the Cavaliers are *right now* has little to no bearing on their likelihood of winning a Championship.
That string of rankings for the last several champions looks like exhaustive research, but it’s utterly worthless at the moment. Unless you can show where those teams were ranked on December 1st, and how it related to winning, this is all irrelevant.
Yes, the Cavs could be better, but there is a long way to go before the games really count. You’d be better off referencing specific team weaknesses (rebounding, focus) than looking to overall team metrics over a relatively small sample of games.
Can we get 20 games into a season before we declare this team not as good or anything like that? I mean if this was January and we were on the same pace we’d be something like 24-10, 14 games over .500, in the top 3 in the East and 1st in the division. That isn’t bad. If we kept on the same pace we did this past month we’d have won 54 games by the end of the season. That’s not bad at all. And, we all know there will be more wins during some months when we face the T-Wolves/Nets/Bucks/Thunder/Grizz and 76ers. Which will lead to a higher win total.
Just so I’m clear, are you guys saying we shouldn’t cover the Cavs on this site until the playoffs start? Nobody is saying they won’t get things figured out. But I am covering this team in the present right now, and I think it’s fair to point out the things they aren’t doing well at this moment in time.
I think this team should be covered but it makes it seem like you’re saying they aren’t one of the best in the league because of one stat. We beat one of the best in their place (Orlando). I just feel this sort of tense state regarding the Cavs this year for what ever reason. It gets little annoying.
They play so lax at times I can barely stand to watch them. I’d much rather see the team that was looking to destroy everyone last season, even if they went 0-82.
The Miami Heat started the 2005-2006 season 11–10.
My biggest disappointment so far this season is with Mike Brown, and I think it stems from a point RockKing made in his earlier post about Brown not playing Z.
To put it bluntly, Brown has shown stunningly little growth as a coach from last season as far as matchups and rotations go – which is something I surely thought he would spend the summer working on after getting outcoached by Stan Van Jermey to end last season. I’m not saying he’s had it easy – I actually think, given Delonte’s situation and all the new players, that he’s had perhaps this season’s most difficult coaching challenge figuring out how to make it all work… BUT, that being said, I think the Toronto, Chicago, and Washington losses were a direct result of Brown either refusing to go small when the other team did or continuing the Twin Towers debacle after it was apparent that strategy wasn’t working…
What’s so ironic to me (and to RockKing’s point) is that the game where Brown finally seemed to get it & go small was the one game this season where no one would have cared if he had Z out there in a mismatch! It was his night!
Sorry to be long winded about this, but Mike Brown just continues to bewilder me in his evolution as a coach. He can’t seem to take a step forward without taking two steps back. He should have had the foresight to play Z right out of the gate, get the record & celebration out of the way, and then go back to his original gameplan. But he didn’t. It’s just another example of the growing doubt I have in Mike Brown’s ability to coach a team all the way to a title. He seems like a great guy, and a good head coach, but when push comes to shove & he’s matched up against great coaches I haven’t seen enough from him to make me think he’ll come out on the winning end.
I hope I’m wrong, and that he’ll spend the rest of the season proving me so. I really do.
Just to clarify, the Cavs play has been puzzling this season. They can look so good one night and so bad/disinterested the next. And if it’s frustrating/confusing for us, think how it must be for Brown. I wasn’t disagreeing that things are off so far this season, just the choice of the word struggling as it applies to their play over the past few weeks.
On the plus side, while it’s not good what Delonte is going through, it’s given an opportunity for Jamario Moon to see action which can only help the team as they move through the season/playoffs. As we learned last year, you can’t worry about beating a single team (Boston, for example) because what happens if you don’t play them in the playoffs? It’s better to have a talented team that can adapt and beat teams as varied as Orlando and Dallas.
I do find it kind of disturbing, though, that in a town with Eric Wedge and Eric Mangini coaching, people feel the need to criticize Mike Brown for his work.
This whole season is feeling like a tune up for a long playoff run.
Tough to criticize Mike Brown for “humiliating” Z by playing to win the game and then complain about how the Cavs are struggling with offensive and defensive efficiency.
BTW, efficiency differential is the # you’re looking for.
Which is why I made the point in my post that it was hypocritical to do so.
They are struggling if you compare them to last year, but I think they also have a higher ceiling this year.
Also, I have been encouraged by the play of Jamario Moon – I think he’s going to prove to be a critical piece in the playoffs.
Delonte is the difference between this being a 55 win team and a 65 win team in my opinion.
I like the new look. Keep up the good work.
I agree with everything you said, Tsunami. The real trick for Mike Brown is to find a way to get both Delonte and Jamario their minutes. Personally, I would reduce Gibson’s minutes. I realize he’s shooting much better from 3 this year, but his overall FG% is still weak and he offers nothing else outside of 3 pt shooting. He has a sub-10 PER and I would MUCH rather see Delonte start cutting into Boobie’s minutes rather than Jamario’s minutes.
I have lost confidence in the Cavs championship possibility since the screw up of Ferry at last year’s trade deadline. How could have last year ended if Shaq (or another trade) was there for the playoffs? We can only speculate but it would have been an upgrade over Wally and Sasha. I was personally hopeing for the Salmons and Miller trade that Chicago did. A big that could spread the floor and a decent wing defender that can get his own shot. But everyone thought I was crazy. Since that time, I haven’t had any faith in a title with the current roster and the current GM. There were no real moves this summer besides Shaq and I definitely didn’t understnd the NBA draft choices….AT ALL. But Ferry is a much brighter man than me, right? Maybe Eyenga will be the next Jordan (or Harold Miner).
To get to this season, why isn’t Stephen Jackson playing for the Cavs? Coach Thompson made a great observation about Iverson last nite. He said that teams are allowing public perception and 3rd party information to determine the worth of a player. Was Jackson less of a “knucklehead” than Rodman then or Artest now? Rodman kicked a camera man in the groin for NO apparent reason. But he was able to win titles everywhere he went. And Delonte is more of a liability to the team, truth be told.
For some reason, Ferry is so fascinated with the Spurs character first mentality that he is hurting this team. It’s flawed thinking because he doesn’t have the talent the Spurs had. It’s easy to have that character first mentality when the foundation are the 2 of the best big men of all time (Robinson and Duncan). Ferry needs to wake up and realize that if he doesn’t make some moves this year, he will be hurting the team even more next year. Next year the Cavs won’t be able to sign any significant free agents to a large contract. If you were Lebron, why would you stay with no future in sight? Why not go to Miami, OKC, or Portland? Ferry I have a little know secret I will share with you… Talent plus chemistry wins titles. You’re responsible for the talent and Coach Brown is responsible for the chemistry. Neither one of you guys are doing a great job…..
MBJ23: I have to say (and you’re definitely not the only one who does this), you seem to think that trades in the real world are as easy as trades in a fantasy league. Sometimes deals happen. Sometimes they don’t. Sometimes they don’t for reasons which seem silly for someone trying to trade players on paper (for instance, players not wanting to move).
Secondly, while the current Cavs aren’t the same as the Spurs (being built around James rather than Duncan), I’d be hard-pressed to say they aren’t talented, and aren’t a talent upgrade from where they were 2 years ago.
I am a big fan if the “quitness” theme. Not vulgar and totally accurate. Those shirts and signs should be legit.