Breaking Down The Mo Williams Deal
As promised, we return with our full analysis of the Cavaliers trade of G Damon Jones and F Joe Smith for PG Mo Williams from the Milwaukee Bucks. Here’s a hint…..we like this acquisition a lot.
Danny Ferry has been one of the most vilified figures in Cleveland sports through the last 5 years. Some of it has been warranted, but I have often felt that Ferry has done a pretty decent job in his time with Cleveland, actually. The problem was that he made his biggest mistake(s) in his first season at the helm, andhas spent the past few years trying to get out from underneath the mistakes of signing Larry Hughes, Donyell Marshall, and Damon Jones.
Realizing his mistakes, Ferry has turned Hughes, Marshall, and Jones into West, Szczerbiak, Wallace, and now Mo Williams. That’s a pretty incredible upgrade, if you ask me, and he’s still likely not done. There’s a good chance Ferry will yet be able to parlay Wally’s expiring contract into another really good player to further strengthen this roster.
Our friends over at Cavalier Attitude recently praised Ferry for his patience, and this is why. Ferry could have panicked. He could have overpaid for a medium talent like James Posey. He could have panicked and blown his best assets in trying to bring in a player like Ron Artest whose game wouldn’t have fit in or helped the Cavaliers much at all. Instead, Ferry waited, andhe found a team that was willing to dump some legit talent in exchange for expiring contracts.
Look at what the Cavaliers had to give up. First off, DJ. Look, I was probably the biggest Damon Jones fan in the state of Ohio. I loved the guy, loved his swagger, loved his confidence, loved his antics….all of it. Damon Jones was a fun guy to cover. But Damon Jones couldn’t stay on Mike Brown’s good side, and his playing time was virtually non existent. So the Cavs are only losing a guy who never played here and who sported a meager 11.31 PER last year.
The other player the Cavaliers lost was Joe Smith who, bless his soul, was 33 years old and was basically using duct tape to hold up his knees. Joe Smith quickly won Cavs fans over and he was a great guy to have in the locker room, on the bench, on the court….basically, anywhere you needed him or asked him to be. Losing him for this season will be sad, but remember, he was an expiring contract and in the twilight of his career.
The Cavaliers didn’t have to give up any draft picks or anything else. That’s it. Just Damon Jones and Joe Smith, and in return they acquired a 25 year old PG entering his prime who loves to score, can dish the ball, shoots well, and can be a core member of this team for years to come. How can you not love this trade from the Cavaliers perspective? Sure, Mo leaves a lot to be desired defensively, but for at least one more year the Cavs will still have Delonte West and his defense and other intangibles to fill in the gaps where Williams may be lacking. Furthermore, lets give Mike Brown some credit here, too, for his ability to get guys to play good defense. It will be interesting to see if Brown can get Williams to show some improvement on that side of the ball this season.
Assuming Delonte West at least comes back and plays for his qualifying offer, Mike Brown will have a ton of flexibility and rotation options with this backcourt. Mo Williams will definitely start at the point, but now Brown can start either Wally Szczerbiak or Delonte West at the 2. He will then be able to use Boobie to fill in at either the point or the 2, with Sasha Pavlovic and Tarence Kinsey providing extended depth.
I’ve often said that Danny Ferry is a stubborn man, and he’s not going to make moves just to appease LeBron. I said in my draft previews that Ferry wouldn’t be afraid to pick more of a project if he thought it would better benefit the Cavaliers in the long term, and he’s doing the same thing with this move. Even if LeBron does leave Cleveland in 2010, the Cavaliers at least will still have a very, very good PG for 3 more seasons after that to help ease the transition into post-LeBron life.
Obviously, though, Ferry’s main priority is still to win a Championship this season. Sure, it’s sounds all rosy that the Cavs added a good player while not giving up too much, but that’s not what matters right now. Right now, what Cavaliers fans want to know is, did this move improve the Cavaliers chances of winning the NBA Championship this season? The answer to that question is a resounding ‘YES’.
How couldn’t it? The Cavaliers biggest area that they needed help in was scoring. Can you believe that since LeBron has been with the Cavaliers no player other than LeBron himself has scored more than 17 ppg and only one (Ilgauskas) has averaged more than 16 ppg (once)? Mo Williams has averaged over 17 ppg in each of the last two seasons. By that merit alone Mo Williams is going to be an enormous asset to LeBron and the rest of the Cavaliers and will make them a more formidable playoff opponent.
Which isn’t to say Williams doesn’t come without a few question marks. Offensively, people will question whether or not a player of Mo’s style, who tends to operate best with the ball in his hands, will be a good fit with LeBron. I think this could be precisely the kind of player LeBron needs. Just from watching LeBron play on Team USA you can see how well he can operate without the ball when he is playing with players he trusts. If Williams can establish a level of trust with LeBron and prove that he can ease some of the offensive pressure off of LeBron’s shoulders, he should be able to excel with the Cavaliers.
It’s not like Williams won’t ever pass the ball, either. His 6.3 assists per game were 13th in the NBA last year, and with LeBron and Gibson and Z in Cleveland, it’s entirely possible for that number to go up. In fact, only 6 players (LeBron, Baron Davis, Chris Paul, Andre Miller, Dwyane Wade, and Mo) averaged 17 points, 6 assists, and 3.5 rebounds per game last year. 2 of those guys now play together in Cleveland, which should help open up the offense and create a more potent attack.
Another question some have raised is Mo’s salary. To be honest, this surprises me more than a little. When he signed the deal last year, ESPN’s John Hollinger proclaimed it was good value for a player of his age and production. All Williams did to back it up was have his best year yet. And that’s where this separates from the Larry Hughes deal. I’ve also heard some people try to compare this somehow to the Larry Hughes signing. This is completely different in that Hughes was signed to much more money, and furthermore, this is a trade not a free agent signing. This is a big difference because whereas Larry Hughes never lived up to his contract for even one season, Mo Williams has already shown that he can still be productive under his current contract.
For comparisons sake, if you look at the player who finished last season ranked one spot below Williams in PER, Lamar Odom, you would see his salary was $13.248 million. Would you rather pay Williams $8 million or Lamar Odom $13 million for equal production?
The final question you will hear is durability. In my opinion, this is the most fair criticism of Williams. While Mo isn’t an injury magnet to the extent that Larry Hughes was, he has struggled to stay healthy for an entire season. Other than playing 80 games his 2nd season, Mo has never played in more than 68 games. This is why bringing back Delonte West will be a key move for the Cavaliers. West has already shown he’s capable of playing the point, and he can easily fill in if Mo is injured. Not to mention the fact that Daniel Gibson has started at the point in Cleveland in the past and he can certainly fill in for Mo if needed as well.
Overall, though, I really like what Danny Ferry has accomplished in the last 6 months. He has pulled off 2 different major trades with 4 other teams, 2 of whom were intradivision rivals. In those deals, he shed unproductive players like Hughes, Marshall, and Jones and has parlayed them into guys who look to have a major impact on this season in Mo Williams, Delonte West, Ben Wallace, and Wally Szczerbiak. Ferry still has the assets to make another major move. Mo Williams has a chance to completely change the look of the Cavaliers offense. In every season since his rookie year, Williams has shot well above 40% from the field, has shown he can knockdown big 3’s, and has been dynamic in his ability to get to the lane. His PER numbers have improved every season he’s been in the NBA.
The bottom line is that finally the Cavaliers have added an explosive and dynamic offensive player who can help LeBron. I wouldn’t think the Cavs are done yet, and I fully expect Wally Szczerbiak to be traded at some point this year, and if they can trade for a solid post player, possibly Anderson Varejao could still be moved as well. Throughout all of this, Danny Ferry has shown a very level headed, patient approach, and in this case, I feel that it has paid off really nicely for the Cleveland Cavaliers.
August 14th, 2008 at 12:20 am
Well put. I also am a huge fan of this trade, I don’t know how you can not be. A friend of mine, who is impossible to please and is only happy when he is miserable, claims that the Cavs are becoming the Knicks because they added a huge salary, but we gave up the same salary as we are getting back, and he is not even in his prime yet. When his deal is up, he will be 30. Thats not bad at all, and 8.5 mil? That doesn’t usually get you a player of this quality. I wonder what Ferry haters have to say now, he has been doing a good job ever since his poor first year on the job.
August 14th, 2008 at 12:55 am
I was wondering, and Ricky alluded to it, what the salary numbers were. Is Mo’s salary more or less than the combined salaries of Jones and West?
I agree this seems like a great trade and I am excited that we have a promising team heading into next season. Now if only Delonte will sign his name on the dotted line…
August 14th, 2008 at 1:54 am
this season will be the biggest test of lebron’s leadership ever. he’s got his hands full with two certifiable head-cases (ben wallace and mo williams) and two more unhappy players who aren’t exactly team players (varejao and pavlovic). i like the deal but we need a serious player behind lebron if we want to contend this year. let’s see what happens at the trade deadline when dangle wally + varejao. hopefully we can score an all-star power forward.
plus, isn’t that 17PPG misleading since williams averaged like 50PPG against the cavs last year?
August 14th, 2008 at 8:59 am
My only concern is that while it’s an upgrade at the PG from an offensive stance, it still won’t do much to limit the notorious “Cav killers.” Aside from Vince Carter, we’ve just been torched by almost every PG we’ve played. Heck, even Tyronn Lue lights us up. But hopefully with a mix of Mo and West, we’ll keep that at bay.
In terms of a give and take, as long as Lebron is cool with DJ being shipped off, we definitely improved.
August 14th, 2008 at 9:07 am
Totally agree Scott. I’m not sure this is a team that can win a Championship, my only point is that the Cavs are definitely closer than they were yesterday at this time. Therefore, I’m happy with the trade. Now if only the Cavs could find a 2 who is a tough perimeter defender…that will drastically help with the Cav-killing PGs.
August 14th, 2008 at 9:08 am
Forgotten positives – somebody to shoot game clinching free throws and technical foul shots so we don’t have to suffer through LBJ’s shooting… I give this move a B+ with a chance to be an A- if Williams shuts his mouth and plays a modicum of defense.
August 14th, 2008 at 9:10 am
I agree that there are a lot of reasons that Mo Williams shouldn’t be compared to Larry Hughes.
At the same time, I think it is important to note that Larry Hughes was hugely successful in Washington before he showed up here and failed to play well. My point being, you can’t just pencil in 17 points and 6 assists into the box score. The Cavs and LeBron hopefully have a plan, and or a system, that will allow Mo Williams to come in and be successful alongside LeBron James.
As I said on my site, it always comes back to Mike Brown and his “offense” for me. Larry Hughes was injury prone and had a bad attitude, but he was also frustrated by the lack of offensive gameplanning and an inability for anyone to tell him how, exactly, he fit in.
Again, it shouldn’t be as big a concern for Mo Williams who is a true scoring PG, but it should be noted that Mike Brown has a heck of a lot to prove in integrating the various talents he has on this team into a cohesive unit.
August 14th, 2008 at 9:28 am
@Rock: Part of me wants to think that Pavlovic can be that perimeter defender. But coupling his attitude with his rollercoaster of an offensive skill set, I don’t know if I want to conduct that experiment…
August 14th, 2008 at 9:42 am
Now that the Cavs have an abundance of wings, can we see LeBron finally start developing into a post player?
Watching the Olympics, LeBron is excelling by playing off the ball (mainly in the post) and leading the D from the post.
I know, I know. We don’t have Chris Paul, Deron Williams and Dwyane Wade for the wings, but I think LeBron would be unstoppable if he would play off the ball and man the post.
Please send this to Ferry and Brownie, thanks
August 14th, 2008 at 10:18 am
Yeah, I hear ya Scott. I’ve said forever that despite what Sasha thinks, his best skill is his defense, not his offense.
August 14th, 2008 at 10:18 am
Love the Trade!~
Also Love the article Rock. Some great stats in thier.
August 14th, 2008 at 10:57 am
FilteringCraig-
I hear ya. The caveat: they tried to “force” Hughes into the PG spot, and he had no desire to be a “facilitator” instead of a “scorer”. He had no interest in deferring to LeBron.
For me in response to this trade, I’m hoping that the fact that Williams has been playing with someone like Redd and has been throwing up 6+apg will translate to his willingness to defer to LeBron as the team’s main scorer. if Williams is willing to pick his spots, he could be lethal on this team. As others have pointed out, we’re seeing in the Olympics that LeBron is most effective when the offense is set up for him WITHOUT him initiating/bringing the ball up, and with someone else who can create/make a shot.
If the Cavs “offensive coaching” can establish an offense that gets LeBron the ball deep (you know, as opposed to 30 freakin’ feet from the rim), defenses are going to commit more defensive presence down low on him. With Williams’ ability to get to the rim, create shots, and knock them down, he’s going to have a field day. Shooters like Boobie and Wally (for as long as he’s here, anyway) should also have PLENTY of open looks with LeBron getting his usual attention and a PG who can pentrate and make shots. Wallace/Z should be even more free to clean the glass (one of the team’s strengths already).
Obviously, this is a best-case scenario, but I don’t feel like it’s a reach. Clearly another front-court scorer would be ideal, but (assuming West resigns) this is the same team that gave the NBA champs all they could handle and more in the playoffs, minus Joe Smith but plus a much better scorer in the backcourt. I don’t think it’s a stretch to give this move a solid B+ with potential for better, as someone else alluded.
August 14th, 2008 at 10:59 am
This is a good article and I agree that the key story here is Ferry’s patience (there was lots of pressure to get Posey from the “homer – he’s a Clevelander” crowd).
However it’s not fair to continually say we received Wally, Delonte, Ben and Mo Williams for Marshall, DJ, and Larry — don’t forget about Gooden.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:05 am
Can’t see a down side to this trade, seems close to a no-brainer for Ferry. But I just would add to a point that FilteringCraig touched on: you can’t just assume 17 and 6, and a happy camper. We don’t know yet, and we don’t know Williams’s personality. It should be apparent that, as generous and likeable a teammate as LeBron seems to be, you can’t underestimate the immaturity and self-delusions of some NBA players. Some want their touches regardless of outcome. I’m thinking Boozer, Hughes, AV, etc. Maybe because he already has his contract Williams will be unaffected by the number of touches and the attention LeBron receives on and off the court. Maybe he is all about winning, and that’s all. Hope so. We’ll see.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:16 am
@Joeface: Very fair point. I definitely didn’t think to include that piece of the trade. Having said that, though, I still think it’s a nice upgrade overall for the Cavs going from Hughes, Marshall, Gooden, Brown, Jones, and Smith to Wally, Wallace, West, and Williams. Wow that’s a lot of W’s. The letter, I mean, not wins….
August 14th, 2008 at 11:22 am
Good article Rock. I think a pre-season to gel with these guys will do wonders for attitudes and chemistry. My biggest fear is and will be until he’s gone, Mike Brown. OK time for my blood pressure meds.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:29 am
At the very least we have upgraded in the tattoo-to-player ratio department. We were hurting in that area after dumping Larry Hughes.
August 14th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
I don’t think the journey to a Championship team is over yet. Next step? A great O-f-f-e-n-s-i-v-e C-o-o-r-d-i-n-a-t-o-r.
….There, I spelled it out for Brown and Ferry. Its pretty hard to misread that, I am sure.
August 14th, 2008 at 1:34 pm
address our lack of front court depth is an issue…but i think this is a realistic scenario:
OK city will have a horrendous record and Joe Smith can request a buyout (with only 2 mill left on his contract) at midseason…and the Cavs would likely be his top destination.
August 14th, 2008 at 3:38 pm
A couple of thoughts, one on Mo and D and one on further moves:
–It won’t be just Mike Brown trying to get Mo to play better defense. LeBron buys into Brown’s defense and will nudge, push, prod and harangue Williams as needed.
–In addition to Wally and Varejao as possible trade bait, there’s also Eric Snow in the last year of his contract ($7.3 million). Between those three guys, could there be two good players coming back our way, not just one?
August 14th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
I thought the Cavs were trying to get some kind of injured/retired exemption for ESnow to get his salary off their cap. I would think if that’s the case they can’t turn around and trade his contract, but I’m not sure. Figuring out the NBA salary cap is something I’ve never been able to do entirely.
August 14th, 2008 at 5:45 pm
You can’t expect Mo Williams to average 17 and 6 in the Cavs system. The Bucks pace has been faster than the Cavs. However, the biggest two stats in my mind are FG% and rebounding. The Cavs have NEVER been a great shooting team. They usually win games by grabbing rebounds and playing defense. Mo Williams is going to shoot a good percentage, score about 15 a game, and he will play the position athletically. He will go up and grab some boards ala Delonte West. We FINALLY have an infusion of youth and athleticism on this team. This is the perfect trade given the circumstances. LeBron gave it an A – that might be the most important.
I think Williams said it best when he said he would be able to keep LeBron fresher by handling the ball more. I couldn’t agree more. Mo Williams should help the Cavs get some more easy baskets.
August 15th, 2008 at 10:57 am
Tsunamis says “in the Cavs system” – what system?! I think although Mo might lose some assists to the Cavs crappy offense – that might be offset by having the #1 in the world fast-break finisher in ‘bron ‘bron.
August 15th, 2008 at 11:40 am
“Danny Ferry has been one of the most vilified figures in Cleveland sports through the last 5 years.”
Haha, more like the past 20 years. All joking aside, this is a great article. I’ve ripped Danny Ferry from the confines of my living room for the past 3-4 years but he’s doing a phenomenal job with the situation he’s in. Ferry almost had to sign Hughes, Marshall, Jones and Gooden because Lebron’s rookie contract was coming to an end and Paxson had just pulled….well a Paxson and let Boozer out of town. And even if you hated those signings, they still got us to an NBA Finals (with Lebron’s, help of course).
But like the article says, Ferry could’ve panicked. All summer, it’s been “Lebron’s gonna go to NY, Lebron’s going to go to Europe, etc” and he hasn’t batted an eye. The same patience Cleveland fans have ripped Ferry for is now starting to pay off and I too believe that we haven’t seen the end of the Cavs’ restructuring.
The best part is that we’re going to have tons of cash come 2010 and we still have a few expiring contracts for midseason trades. Enjoy Cleveland while you can, Wally..
August 15th, 2008 at 2:06 pm
DP, you might be right about Snow. Last I saw anything about a possible buyout/insurance settlement was when Snow was a candidate for the Bulls’ coaching job. It wasn’t clear whether buyout/whatever was being pursued just because of the coaching possibility or would be pursued even if Snow didn’t get the job. Anyone have fresher info?