NFL Rumors: Troy Smith to the Browns, Anyone?
January 30, 2010Cavs Salary by the Numbers
January 30, 2010In my family, late January and early February are a time of hope and excitement. The football season is coming to a close in the NFL finally, basketball is in full bloom and most importantly, baseball is on the way. In my family, where spring training vacations out-weigh total Browns watch parties, spring is in the air as pitchers and catchers are due to report to their respective training grounds within the next three weeks.
As exciting as it is for many people to get back into the baseball mind, it might be difficult for many fans of the Indians this season. Featuring many youngsters now on their 40-man roster and no Cliff Lee, C.C. Sabathia or the power that led the team to the 2007 ALCS, this could be the latest in a growing stretch of rebuilding years for the Tribe. Prospects like Carlos Santana, Hector Rondon, Jeanmar Gomez and Steven Wright are all expected to make their debuts sometime this year in the big leagues, but the team clearly looks another year away from legitimate playoff contention.
Such a comment is really meaningful when you continue to wonder about how poor the AL Central Division really is. For example, the winning team in the division has averaged 88.0 wins over the past two seasons while the third team in the AL East has averaged 84.0 wins during this time. With a whole new staff here in 2010, the Indians should hopefully start the season on the right note for the first time in a while, but there are many doubts the team will radically improve upon their 65-win 2009 season.
Taking a look at the current 40-man roster, there is still going to be some serious improvement for the team to go to battle with a competitive 25-man depth chart. The only problem is that the team is in the middle ground of development and contention, meaning it makes little to no sense to add any more veterans for a faint hope of contending in the AL Central. With all the youngsters getting serious playing time, it will be interesting to see how the season ends and if there will be much more hope for the 2011 and 2012 seasons. Without any further ado, here is the breakdown of the Indians current 40-man roster with the intention of slimming it down to 25:
Staring Pitchers (12) = Aaron Laffey, David Huff, Fausto Carmona, Justin Masterson, Jake Westbrook, Jeremy Sowers, Carlos Carrasco, Hector Ambriz, Mitch Talbot, Hector Rondon, Jeanmar Gomez and Kelvin De La Cruz
Analysis: It is amazing that the team has this many starters on the 40-man. An entire 30% is just devoted to players that have historically been starting pitchers. Yes, of course, Laffey, Masterson, Sowers, Ambriz and Talbot all could end up in the bullpen at some point this season, but the sheer volume of this group is impressive. Laffey should begin the year as the #1 starter with the hope that Jake Westbrook will be ready by opening day. Huff, Carmona and Masterson would then fill out the rotation, with Sowers, Carrasco, Ambriz and Talbot looking for innings somewhere. My guess is the Indians begin with Ambriz on the roster just to keep him from going back to Arizona via the Rule 5 Draft.
Relief Pitchers (7) = Kerry Wood, Chris Perez, Jess Todd, Joe Smith, Rafael Perez, Tony Sipp and Jensen Lewis
Analysis: Odd to see once again that there are only seven players that are historically relief pitchers on this 40-man roster. With at least six starts coming to the 25-man roster along with the presence of not-so-capable defenders such as Travis Hafner, Andy Marte and Matt LaPorta, it will be interesting to see how many relief pitchers even end up on the team. Wood, C. Perez, Todd and Smith are locks in my book, while the other three might have something to prove for a roster spot during Spring Training. This is a solid area of depth in the higher arches of the organization however, with solid prospects such as Steven Wright, Josh Judy, Vinnie Pestano, Neil Wagner and others. Expect them all to get a chance the end of the season.
Catchers (4) = Lou Marson, Wyatt Toregas, Mike Redmond and Carlos Santana
Analysis: I’m still shaking my head about the Mike Redmond/Kelly Shoppach situation. Sure, it makes sense not to pay money to a backup catcher with no immediate hope in your organization, but to then bring in Mike Redmond? For some historical perspective, Redmond began his minor league career in 1993, when hot-shot prospects Hector Rondon and Jeanmar Gomez had just turned five years old. Redmond is on the 40-man roster as well, meaning he could theoretically make it to Cleveland as an insurance policy for Marson or Toregas. But the plan all along has been for those two to split catching duties up until the All-Star Break when Carlos Santana will emerge from Columbus as the mainstay in the backstop for the next several years.
Infielders (10) = Asdrubal Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta, Luis Valbuena, Travis Hafner, Andy Marte, Chris Gimenez, Jason Donald, Brian Bixler, Wes Hodges and Carlos Rivero
Analysis: The Mark Grudzielanek era has begun in Cleveland! Just kidding, as Grud didn’t get placed on the 40-man roster when signed by the organization, and after only playing eight games in Double-A last year, figures to be out of the picture entirely. The big three of Cabrera, Peralta and Valbuena should all play 100 plus contests this season as well. This was the last category for analysis however, because of the recent acquisition of Brian Bixler alongside Jason Donald and Chris Gimenez as possible utility players. I previously stated that 13 pitchers should begin on the 25-man, alongside four outfielders and two natural catchers, leaving space for as many as six infielders from this big group. The five of Cabrera, Peralta, Valbuena, Hafner and Marte should all be locks while it will be a wild competition for the final spot on the roster for a position player between the three utility guys.
Outfielders (7) = Grady Sizemore, Shin Soo-Choo, Matt LaPorta, Trevor Crowe, Michael Brantley, Jordan Brown and Nick Weglarz
Analysis: This is the easiest of all of the categories to predict despite the complicated nature of at-bats for Brantley, Crowe and Brown. LaPorta will start the year in Cleveland playing five or six days a week probably, leaving some at bats for Marte and Hafner every now and then. Sizemore and Choo have been the most productive players on offense over the last few seasons, and there is no reason that should change again this year. Trevor Crowe, barring a trade or injury, should also begin the season in Cleveland. His versatility has been liked by the management and staff for years in the outfield. Brantley only hit .267 with a .711 OPS in 116 games for Columbus last season while Brown adds very little that LaPorta doesn’t already have. Expect recent free agent acquisitions Shelly Duncan and Austin Kearns to begin in Columbus, if they even stick with the organization at all.
8 Comments
Giminez can also suit up behind the plate. We went from a stalwart at catcher to five on the 40-man. Awesome.
I can’t wait for Santana to get the call.
My understanding is that Redmond is guaranteed the backup catcher job, with Marson and Toregas battling to be named the starter. Whoever loses out (probably Toregas) will go back to Columbus to start.
I’m glad you identify Laffey as our #1. (Well, “glad” isn’t the right word, but you know what I mean.) Until the last month of the season, he was everything we needed him to be. Unfortunately, I could envision them sending him back to Columbus too, since he still has options and Sowers doesn’t. I know it’s too early for this, but I’m thinking our starting rotation goes:
Westbrook
Carmona
Masterson
Huff
Sowers
I’d prefer Laffey over Sowers, and I’m not convinced Masterson isnt’ better suited for the ‘pen, but this is the vibe I’m getting from Acta and Shapiro. I’m curious to hear what other people think…
Saw Acta in Columbus on Thursday when he, Shapiro, Jensen Lewis and Michael Brantley came for a Q and A. Someone asked about the starting pitching and Acta seemed to imply that the rotation would be Westbrook, Carmona and Masterson as 1,2,3, with everyone else competing for 4 and 5. Laffey and Sowers were the first ones mentioned, be he seemed to say that it was pretty open at this point…
I actually think Masterson will do well. He appeared to be pulling it together towards the end of the season, and I’m sure he’s been working up his endurance for this season. Even if he does get stuck in the pen, I have a hunch that this could be a very impressive year for Sowers. I’ve been wrong before, but I’ve also been very right (Predicted Cliff’s ’08 season and Scott Lewis’ success after his callup). Speaking of whom, where is poor Scott Lewis? He was an instant favorite of mine, and he pitched half a game last year. I know he was in rehab, but is he still injured, or out for good? I wish I could find out…
Jacob! I’m glad someone finally agrees with me about Laffey. I wrote a piece about how he should be in the rotation. And when I was running down the outlook for next year in November I identified him as the probable #1 guy. I don’t understand why Castrovince and guys around the team see him as a bullpen guy. He was the best starter last year until september, and even when he struggled he got 6 or 7 innings and only gave up about 3 or 4 runs per start. He’s a left handed Jake Westbrook I think. Here’s a link to my piece about him if anyone is interested.
http://lakeeriesoldiers.wordpress.com/2010/01/28/aaron-laffey-starter-or-reliever/
Just for nostalgia’s sake, I decided to watch some of the best innings of last season on the MLB.TV archives. Obviously, these are the innings I picked:
1. Innings 8 and 9: May 25th against the Rays. 9 runs in 2 frames, including 7 in the 9th, almost all with 2 outs, to win 10-11.
2. Inning 9 of Cliff Lee’s gem/near no hitter against the Cards on June 14th. ESPN game, and the crowd was electric.
3. Inning 2 against New York – 14 runs. Nuff said.
4. I didn’t say they all had to be Indians games, did I?
-Inning 12 of game 163, Tigers and Twins. Never heard a baseball park so loud.
Actually, back to that game 163, Orlando Cabrera’s 7th inning home run was almost more magical than the winning hit. Literally, I think I would be frightened out of my shoes if I were the pitcher listening to that roaring after the homer.
I’m confused by your take on Matt Laporta. Had the impression that the plan was for him to be the first baseman, plain and simple, and give Brantley a crack at the LF job. You haven’t really identified a starting first baseman. But you list Laporta as an outfielder. And you say he’ll “leave some at bats” for Hafner, indicating that Laporta’s maybe our DH. I know LaPorta is good, but can he really play 1B, LF and DH every day?