Economy affecting Ohio High School football, OSU recruiting

Cleveland is a Browns town.  Ohio is a football state.  At the base of this passion and interest is a developed and impressive youth and high school football culture loaded with talented athletes.

The success of the Ohio State football program, along with multiple other Big Ten programs, depends largely on the talent consistently graduated from Ohio high schools.  The economic downturn felt most harshly in the Rust Belt states of the Midwest, however, has led to a significant population loss and growing concern over both the amount of talent available as well as the incubation of that talent across Ohio’s impressive high school football system.  While the Big Ten looks to expand, loss of jobs and dwindling populations have led to diminishing talent pools in their football programs’ traditional recruiting feeder bases.  This is the subject of a much-discussed Ivan Maisel piece published this week.

While Maisel’s subject is the Big Ten and Rust Belt as a whole, almost the entire article focuses on the heart of the conference’s talent base – Ohio.  He talks with a number of Ohio high school and college coaches to fill out his theory on the reduction in both talent but also high school programs’ ability to support high school football.  It starts with just a simple social statistic – loss of population:

“In the past decade, the state of Michigan suffered a net reduction of 246,000 residents under the age of 18. From the 1980 census to 2008, the number of Ohio residents age 15-19 fell 19.7 percent, from 1,007,679 to 809,174.  The numbers indicate that the trend will continue. From 2000 to 2008, the number of Ohio children age 5-9 fell 10 percent, from 816,000 to 737,000.”

Less people equals less talent and five star recruits:

“The best teams are found where the best players are raised. The 2010 ESPNU ranking of the top 150 high school players included 28 from Florida, 24 from Texas and 18 each from California and Georgia. Michigan had five, Pennsylvania four. Ohio, home of The Ohio State University and home of famed high schools such as Massillon and Moeller, had two.

Some years are better than others, yes. And the accuracy of recruiting rankings is always fodder for discussion. But you don’t need a statistician to interpret the shift in the numbers. From 2007 to 2010, an entire four-year cycle of recruits, Pennsylvania had a total of 21 players ranked in the ESPNU 150. Ohio had 16 and Michigan 14.

Over that four-year period, those three states had fewer than Florida and Texas had this year alone.”

Since Ohio State’s national title in 2003, the last 7 champions have come from the Sun Belt – SEC schools Florida, LSU, Alabama; and Texas and USC.  These are schools with extremely deep talent pools to recruit from within the borders of their own states.  While it has long been theorized that warm weather states promote speed games and have a distinct advantage when it comes to developing talent year-round at the youth levels, Ohio has always been able to maintain a comparable level of talent.  The population and economic effects may be harder to overcome.

Maisel also spotlights the damaging effects that job losses have had on high school football coaching in Ohio – one of the proudest traditions and most prolific cradles in the country.  It is entirely Ohio focused as he interviews Chuck Kyle of Ignatius, Thom McDaniels of McKinley/Harding, and Jason Hall of Massillon at the high school level while quoting Jim Bollman of OSU and Larry Kehres of Mount Union at the collegiate level.  There is both ample statistical and anecdotal evidence of the damaging effects the economy has had on coaching and development:

Fewer taxpayers means fewer resources. John Magill is the chief strategic officer for the Ohio Department of Development. He is a demographer. He breaks down the population numbers for their meaning to the state. “From what we’ve heard and seen,” Magill said, “there are fewer teaching positions to [use to] get those good young coaches.”

The way it has worked in Ohio for as long anyone can remember is that when a high school hired a new coach, he brought his own staff with him. Each assistant coach got a teaching job in the school. It doesn’t work that way any longer. Sometimes, the jobs disappear because enrollment is down. Sometimes, the coaches decide to choose between the field and the classroom. The latter is more secure.

I personally do not have much of a connection to Ohio State University football but I did attend a high school where football was extremely important.  More than rooting for one particular college team, I typically try to monitor and root for all the local NE Ohio kids, whether from Youngstown or Glenville, that are valuable primetime players at so many programs across the country.  I find them to be the best representatives of my area.  I assume many of us who are into sports generally cannot help but follow the tremendous high school football played in the area.  And if you are just an OSU fan, it behooves you to familiarize yourself with the future Buckeye stars that dominate the fields in the NE Ohio area.

You try not to get too wrapped up in recruiting evals but the lack of top tier talent in recent years as compared to Texas and Florida is somewhat alarming.  I understand that there will be bad and good years and OSU is the direct beneficiary of those waves.  But the population loss from the economic impacts on the Rust Belt area cannot be disputed.  It appears we are just now starting to see the effects of that in the proud tradition of Ohio high school football – certainly a disconcerting trend for Ohio State fans.