5 Favorite Sports Stories: The Zydrunas Ilgauskas Saga
December 29, 2010The 5-Hole: Blue Jackets News and Notes – 12/29/2010
December 29, 2010In the spirit of the old glass half full vs glass half empty debate, so too do people tend to look at the New Years Holiday in one of two ways. For some it’s about looking back and reflecting on the past year and trying to learn from the past to make a better year. For others, it’s all about looking forward and thinking about what they can do in the future to make the next year better than the current year.
For the Cleveland Cavaliers, I have a suspicion that the latter is a bit more preferable to the former. It’s not that there isn’t a lot to be learned from everything that this franchise has been through over the last 12 months, it’s just that most of the lessons learned of 2010 won’t be particularly applicable to the reality of 2011. Besides, there’s an awful lot of pain and heartbreak in the ol’ rearviewmirror these days.
No, for the Cavaliers, 2010 is strictly in the past and their task now is to figure out the road map for getting through 2011 not only with an identity for the future, but for not losing the culture of winning that players and fans alike had grown accustomed to.
It’s tough to discuss that culture these days, in a season in which the Cavaliers have lost not only to the NBA’s elite teams, but also to the Timberwolves (twice), Raptors, Kings, Sixers, Nets, Pistons, etc. It would be easy to say that any winning attitude walked out the door with LeBron James, I don’t believe it’s quite that simple.
December was certainly a brutal month for this team, but lost in all the blowouts and nights of confusion and poor effort are the competitive games the Cavs played in and lost in the 4th quarter against some elite teams. The Cavaliers beat the Celtics, they beat the Knicks, they’ve had tough losses against teams like the Hornets, Magic, Hawks, Jazz, and even the Heat the 2nd time around. At a certain point, it can become cloudy when trying to decipher the difference between losing because of lack of effort and losing because of lack of talent.
This is where the new year of new expectations begins to come into play. Byron Scott and the Cavaliers can continue to give quotes about how they believe the playoffs are still a possibility. They can point out that the Cavaliers are 4.5 games out of the 8 seed in the Eastern Conference and how they can use their Trade Exception and acquired draft picks to bring in some mid level talent to push this team into the playoffs. That’s certainly one way the team could play this.
But they need to stop that line of thinking. The truth is, this team is 1-14 in their last 15 games. This is probably the worst team in the NBA and the only reason their record is better than others is because of the pride, effort, hustle, and winning attitude of players like Anderson Varejao, Boobie Gibson, Antawn Jamison, and Mo Williams. In terms of talent, depth, and the statistics, this team is in the cellar. Their (-9.1) point differential is worst in the NBA. Their Expected W-L of 7-24 is dead last in the NBA. Their (-8.54) rating on the SRS scale is dead last. They are 29th of 30 in Offensive Rating and 26th of 30 in Defensive Rating. It’s time to stop the delusions and time to start changing expectations and start executing a new plan of rebuilding.
There could be signs that this is exactly what’s happening. There have been whispers of more changes coming. As the Nuggets and Nets have been working on a potential deal for Carmelo Anthony, Jason Lloyd of the Beacon-Journal reported that the Cavaliers could be a potential 3rd team in that deal. Regardless of whether it’s that deal or something else, the Cavaliers have been active working the phones looking for any trades that can be made.
In addition to just their Trade Exception, expiring contracts, and stockpile of draft picks to offer in any trade, the Cavaliers also have a player like Anderson Varejao to dangle, and therein lies the most difficult of figuring out where the team should go from here. The question ultimately comes down to deciding whether Varejao is more beneficial to the franchise as a cornerstone or as a tradable asset.
From a strictly fan’s perspective, it would be great to see the Cavaliers somehow acquire an All-Star caliber player that the team can build around while hanging onto Andy and Boobie as complimentary pieces. However, if it’s going to take the Cavs 5-7 years to get back into contention, that will have Varejao well past his prime by then.
If we examine this graph of the Cavs wins by season in franchise history, we can see precisely what the team wants to avoid:
In between the peak areas of success for the franchise are multiple seasons of toiling around in mediocrity. Each of the 3 main peak eras were recently preceded by a season of less than 20 wins. The Cavaliers may not look like a 20+ win team at the moment, but with a large number of home games in February and March, that could very well be a distinct possibility. The question, again, is what is best for this franchise moving forward?
This is all about managing expectations and figuring out what direction gives this franchise the best chance at winning a Championship. I just don’t see the infrastructure in place to allow this team to build by adding some decent pieces now (Anthony Randolph, Andy Rautins, et al) and trying to fill in the gaps later. Besides, it’s way too hard to convince role players, let alone star players, to come to Cleveland via free agency.
If the Cavaliers could somehow convince the Charlotte Bobcats to part ways with Gerald Wallace, which they reportedly are at least considering, then maybe you can try to succeed where Charlotte has failed in building a strong team around him. It would almost certainly take Varejao to get a deal done there, but I think Wallace is the one “available” impact player that the Cavaliers would be wise to consider doing it for. Beyond Wallace, I just don’t see any current or future All-Star caliber players that you can build around that are available for the Cavaliers to acquire.
It is my opinion, then, that making trades just to appease fans and to show that the front office is at least trying could be a mistake. Unless you are putting this team in a position to improve not just for this year, but for multiple years into the future, I can’t help but wonder if it’s not a better idea to just let this season play out and see what the draft and Trade Exception can bring in the offseason.
Regardless of what direction the Cavaliers take, it’s encouraging to know that they at least seem to be acknowledging that this is not a playoff team, nor is it even a particularly good basketball team. The New Year holiday is a season of change, and change is going to be the name of the game in 2011. I’m eager to see how this all plays out and what direction Chris Grant decides to take this franchise in. I’m just glad I’m not the one who has to figure it out.
17 Comments
Will the Cavaliers be in Cleveland 10 years from now? Don’t get me wrong…I love the Cavaliers and love the city of Cleveland. I just wonder if the city can support 3 teams. The fact that I can go to any Cavs game right now for less than $1 (minus the Heat return visit) is shocking to me. I just think people are going to be stunned by what happens to attendance next year if there is a next year in the NBA.
Seems our best bet is to acquire picks and remain as flexible as possible. If we can finally hit on a big-time draft prospect, use that flexibility to add some talent around them (combine what OKC and Boston did).
Ben, unfortunately I share the same fear as you. Apathy will set in quickly if the Cavs dont turn it around within the next couple years. The Indians were the toast of the town in the mid to late 90’s, and look how far they’ve fallen. I know many will say its “different” because Dolan doesnt own the Cavs, but people will most definitely turn on Gilbert if the team has a couple of 60 loss seasons. As much as we (most of us) loved the comic sans letter at the time, it may end up costing us free agents and if it does, the fans will turn on Gilbert quickly. Just like people complain about Dolans bad baseball team and his snow days event, in 5 years people could very well be complaining about Gilbert’s bad basketball team and his casinos.
@ben: The Cavs will not be leaving anytime soon, in part because of the huge financial commitment Dan Gilbert has invested into Cleveland. For better or worse, he has put his $$ into the Cleve. He needs this team for marketing purposes and good will as much as for his bottom line.
I also disagree that Gilbert and Dolan are even comparable. One has shown the propensity to spend and cut no corners, whereas the other has continually cut spending. Each makes business sense in their own way. That being said, Gilbert’s behavior, demeanor, past performance, and public statements clearly are indicative of an owner who will spend money if it will produce a better product on the field.
Finally, no NBA free agent cares that Dan Gilbert ripped #6 in a letter written in comic sans. They care about $, plain and simple. If the Cavs offer more money to a player, all things otherwise being equal, they will most likely sign that free agent. It’s a business, not a popularity contest.
@Jim…The problem is that owners don’t win anything in the NBA. Players do. The fact that he invests money into his franchise means nothing at the end of the day. The Indians have a better chance of winning a world series than the Cavs and that is with an owner who looks to be over his head. The NBA is just set up in a way that unless you are a horrific owner (sterling) it really does not make any difference on the floor. Quick…who is the owner of the Spurs? Majority of sports fans would have no clue without looking it up. Everyone knows who Cuban and Gilbert are now but neither one of them has ever won a thing. They are GREAT business people…it just does not translate to the NBA.
I guess that my bigger complaint with the NBA is that only 5 of the 30 teams have a chance of winning a title. Boston Miami Orlando LA and SA. That is it…don’t give me any nonsense about Dallas Chicago or Utah. The league is so unbalanced right now that it would be good to sit out a year like the NHL and come back with some balance and a hard cap. There is no reason for the other 25 teams and their fan bases to even care other than the fact that they like the game.
When I hear the Cavs start talking about a winning culture I throw up in my mouth…it is like listening to Shapiro.
[…] “The truth is, this team is 1-14 in their last 15 games. This is probably the worst team in the NBA and the only reason their record is better than others is because of the pride, effort, hustle, and winning attitude of players like Anderson Varejao, Boobie Gibson, Antawn Jamison, and Mo Williams. In terms of talent, depth, and the statistics, this team is in the cellar. Their (-9.1) point differential is worst in the NBA. Their Expected W-L of 7-24 is dead last in the NBA. Their (-8.54) rating on the SRS scale is dead last. They are 29th of 30 in Offensive Rating and 26th of 30 in Defensive Rating. It’s time to stop the delusions and time to start changing expectations and start executing a new plan of rebuilding.” [Andrew of WFNY] […]
Hope Chris Grant can light the fuse on this demolition before the season ends. Find this group of last year’s pieces/parts and recent acquisitions unwatchable. It’s not the losing – watching young talent try to figure it out is fun. It’s the paucity of compelling young talent.
Re the “pride, effort, hustle, and winning attitude of players like Anderson Varejao, Boobie Gibson, Antawn Jamison, and Mo Williams” helping the record, maybe that’s already past tense, Andrew. It’s really hard to lose 14 of 15 in the NBA if 4 decent players are trying. Andy can pedal that bike as hard as he wants, but it’s not going anywhere if the chain jumped off a while ago, and the front wheel is loose and doing whatever it wants.
To compare Gilbert and Dolan is not only unfair based on spending, but impossible based on the rules that govern their respective sports. Gilbert can compete with ANY team in the NBA re: money, and winning the lottery gives a club the best chance to improve right away through the draft. Dolan has no shot of signing any FAs because all the good ones will go to the big-market teams. There’s no cap. There are no slanted rules toward keeping your home-grown talent. There are no instant-fixes in the draft from year to year. There are twice as many players on the field at one time, and one player cannot impact a game as much in baseball.
In short, I don’t think MLB and the NBA are even comparable, let alone Dolan and Gilbert.
@Harv: You might be right, I don’t know. Effort is a harder thing to gauge in the NBA than most people want to acknowledge. I’ll say that in last night’s game against Orlando, the Cavs didn’t lose for a lack of effort. But I thought the effort was fine against Minnesota as well, the execution was just awful in long stretches of that game.
I just feel that the reason the Cavs’ record right now is better than it should be based on their point differential is because of the effort and heart those players have shown at different times this season. It would be great if they would put it together for a full game, let alone a full season, but you’re right that it doesn’t seem like that’s the case.
I second what DP said. The Cavs do have the ability to right the ship under Gilbert. Look at the graph of the Cavs’ wins over the years. If you take away the years where Ted Stepien destroyed Cleveland basketball, this city has a good basketball team more often than not. I think the only way ownership affects a team is when it’s so incompetent that it leaks into the team’s daily functions, and that’s not the case with Gilbert. It’s not like this guy is Mark Cuban.
If the casinos are in Cleveland, the Cavs will be.
To me lack of effort in the NBA shows in more than failing to put a hand up or box out. Sometimes defenders appear hustling to close on a shooter after being slow to rotate. Sometimes guys do their own thing on offense because they’re concerned about their own numbers to help them get out of here. Guess I’m using “effort” very generally to include not caring too much about the coach’s program.
Overall, seems too many guys have chosen to tune out Scott. So he and Grant have no choice but to immediately take a few out back and shoot ’em (cough- Jawad). Even as they blow this thing up, they need to take a stand for their program lest the knuckleheads turn more fans off as this endless season wears on. Would be good for our morale to sense some order even if none of the players are here yet.
Look at that graph you could apply it to almost all the sports teams in Cleveland well except for the new stinky Browns who have what one playoff appearance since their return? Pitiful.
The Cavaliers can thank Danielle Ferry for their current position NOT you know who. Can or will Chris Grant do better? Lets hope so but if he sits quiet come the trade deadline I seriously doubt his abilities to keep the Titanic from sinking. The Cavaliers have draft picks and $$ enough now to start a turnaround but if they can shed Parker, Moon, Sessions, Jamison, Gibson and possibly Mo and even Andy they’d be doing themselves a huge service.
Look at that graph you could apply it to almost all the sports teams in Cleveland well except for the new stinky Browns who have what one playoff appearance since their return? Pitiful.
The Cavaliers can thank Danielle Ferry for their current position NOT you know who. Can or will Chris Grant do better? Lets hope so but if he sits quiet come the trade deadline I seriously doubt his abilities to keep the Titanic from sinking. The Cavaliers have draft picks and $$ enough now to start a turnaround but if they can shed Parker, Moon, Sessions, Jamison, Gibson and possibly Mo and even Andy they’d be doing themselves a huge service.
@Ghost – if the Cavs couldn’t get any free agents to sign without grossly overpaying when they had LeBron James, Dan Gilbert’s letter certainly won’t make a difference.
Remember when Kyle Lowry tweeted about how Gilbert’s letter would keep away FA and then signed the Cavs offer sheet before Houston matched it.
Yeah, don’t buy into that BS.
I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again: Any and all who played meaningful minutes with #6 needs to go. This is still “the team we built around him”, instead of being it’s own team with it’s own identity. Trade or cut them all. Start totally from scratch. There can’t be any remnant of the #6 era hanging around, daydreaming about the “good old days.”
Push the little red button…