Company

Cleveland Cavaliers (1-2) vs
Dallas Mavericks (1-1)
American Airlines Center,
Dallas, TX
Monday, November 3, 2008
8:30 PM EST
FSNOH, NBATV/WTAM

One day before a maverick is probably going to be defeated in the general election, the Cavaliers will try to get out of the Central Division cellar by defeating another group of Mavericks as the they take on Dallas in the American Airlines Center tonight. Tough schedules and slow starts are nothing new to the Cavaliers, but this year was supposed to be different. You can’t get too down after just 3 games, or even 4 games (especially when 3 of the 4 are on the road against playoff teams), but if the Cavaliers are ever going to become an elite NBA team with a real chance to win an NBA title, they need to start beating some good teams on the road. The Cavaliers have been relying on moral victories on the road by hanging tough with good opponents, but it’s time to turn the moral victories into actual wins. Tonight, against a Dallas team that may not be as good as Dallas teams of old, the Cavaliers will face a good test in a game that would be a great start toward taking that next step.   

Projected Starting Lineups

Cleveland Cavaliers:

-G Mo Williams (13.3 ppg, 4.3 apg, 0.7 spg, 10.60 PER)
-G Delonte West (9.0 ppg, 1.3 apg, .500 3P%, 11.61 PER)
-F LeBron James (19.7 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 9.3 apg, 23.51 PER)
-F Ben Wallace (2.7 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 2.3 bpg, 13.22 PER)
-C Zydrunas Ilgauskas (14.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 1.3 bpg, 19.60 PER)

Key Injuries: Delonte West (probable), Anderson Varejao (probable), Eric Snow (out), Darnell Jackson (out)

Dallas Mavericks:

-G Jason Kidd (8.0 ppg, 9.5 apg, 4.0 spg, 22.63 PER)
-G Jerry Stackhouse (2.0 ppg, 0.5 apg, .000 3P%, -6.50 PER)
-F Josh Howard (21.0 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 3.0 apg, 20.18 PER)
-F Dirk Nowitzki (28.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 1.0 bpg, 28.38 PER)
-C Erick Dampier (5.0 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 0.5 bpg, 13.59 PER)

Key Injuries: Devean George (day-to-day)

Team Efficiency Stats

Cleveland Cavaliers:

-Off (91.0 ppg, 41.0 rpg, .465 FG%, .667 FT%, 20.0 apg, Efficiency-82.1, Rank-25)
-Def (91.0 ppg, 35.3 rpg, .425 FG%, Efficiency-85.2, Rank-16)

Dallas Mavericks:

-Off (98.5 ppg, 39.0 rpg, .431 FG%, .815 FT%, 20.5 apg, Efficiency-91.3, Rank-11)
-Def (98.5 ppg, 43.5 rpg, .437 FG%, Efficiency-90.3m Rank-19)

Game Notes

Last year the Cavaliers lost at home to the Mavericks in the season opener, but returned the favor in December when they came out of Dallas with a win to split the season series. This year the Cavaliers once again face Dallas in the early stages of the NBA season. The Mavericks come in with an offense running pretty well right, while the Cavaliers are still trying to fully understand theirs. At times, the Cavs can look great on offense and it’s actually fun to watch. More often, though, it still looks disorienting and frustrating to watch. Despite the fact they are 23rd in the NBA in points per game, the Cavaliers are actually 7th in the NBA in FG% (6th in adjusted FG%), 13th in 3P%, and 13th in assists per game.

So where’s the problem? I see two areas, FT% and Turnovers. The Cavaliers are 2nd to last in the entire NBA in FT%. A team that can draw so many fouls like the Cavaliers can (they’re currently 13th in FTA per game) and also gives up as many free throw attempts as Cleveland does (they have allowed the 4th most FTA’s in the NBA so far) needs to rely on FT% to stay in the game. They’re giving away too many points in the margin right now and it needs to be corrected.

As for turnovers, the Cavaliers are 28th in the NBA in turnovers and are 21st in the NBA in assist-to-turnover margin (in my opinion, one of the most important traditional statistics in basketball). The Cavaliers offense, when it runs, is actually pretty good this year. Assists are up a bit, they are shooting at a pretty good percentage, and they are 9th in the NBA in points per shot. What this tells us is that the Cavaliers are not getting enough shots and possessions. The turnovers and lack of offensive rebounds are killing the Cavaliers offense so far this year. They are only 21st in ORB per game (9.3 boards) while they are giving up the 14th most ORB’s per game (11.0 boards). All in all, the offense is coming along, and it has the potential to be much better. The Mavericks are not a great defensive team (19th in points against per game), and this would be a good time for the Cavaliers to keep their assists up and limit their turnovers. If the Cavaliers can keep their turnovers under 14, they’ll have a great chance to win this game.

Defensively, the Cavaliers will face yet another tough challenge. Jason Kidd, LeBron’s BFF, has been outstanding to start this season. Along with superb production from Howard and Nowitzki, the Mavericks have been pretty effective on offense. The one thing the Cavaliers need to work on is getting down the number of FTs they are allowing their opponents to take. In every game so far this season the Cavaliers have shot fewer FTs than their opponents. That is just flat out unacceptable, and it’s the weakest part of the Cavaliers defense so far. The blocked shots have been great, but the Cavs must stop putting their opponents on the line so much. The Cavs also need to start doing a better job keeping their opponents off the offensive glass. The Cavaliers’ help system defense allows them to have a large volume of missed shots and thus a high volume of defensive rebounds, but it also means their opponents are getting a high volume of offensive rebounds as well. The Cavaliers cannot allow Dallas to get a lot of 2nd chances because they will make you pay for it. This game will be a good test for Mo Williams to not only prevent Kidd from creating turnovers, but also to try to force Kidd into some turnovers of his own. But unless the Cavs can start to limit their own turnovers, things will look pretty much the same in the wine and gold.

Vegas Line

Dallas -3.5
Over/Under 193.5

From The Outside Looking In

Mavs Moneyball
blog maverick (Mark Cuban)
Uwe Blog
Showboating

Next Game For The Cavaliers

Wednesday, November 5, 2008
8:00 PM EST
Chicago Bulls at Cleveland Cavaliers
ESPN/WTAM