WaitingForNextYear

The Big Ten just can’t catch a break.  Despite beating Ohio State two weeks ago, and the top-ranked Texas Longhorns dropping at the hands of the Texas Tech Red Raiders, the Penn State Nittany Lions are still ranked third overall in the BCS.  This is all thanks to the computer poll that has bumped Texas Tech up to the second slot thanks to their first place tie between them and the Alabama Crimson Tide.

In fact, the computers like Texas Tech so much that the Texas loss only bumped them down to fourth overall in the BCS Standings.  Let that settle in for a second.  Penn State won the biggest game of their season, and did not move up in the polls.  So, those thoughts of an Ohio State Rose Bowl bid has hit another snag. 

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Here are the hurdles:

Penn State’s schedule.  We’ll give this a hurdle rate of “low.”  The Lions travel to Iowa, and then play Indiana (they have a football team!?) and then Michigan State at home.  These are all games that should easily be won by PSU, unless they start to look ahead.  The Spartans are coming off of a huge win against the free-falling Wisconsin Badgers.  However, the luster of a game-winning field goal should be more than warn off by the time they travel to Happy Valley.

Not controlling destiny.  This one is more “moderate” than anything.  Not being rewarded for a huge win (if you’re Penn State) is a bitter pill.  Hoping for another really strong team to lose at this point in the year is tough.  However, looking at the remaining schedules of both Alabama and Texas Tech:

• Alabma: @ LSU, Off, Mississippi State, Auburn, SEC Title Game
• Texas Tech: Oklahoma State, Off, @ Oklahoma, Baylor, Big 12 Title Game

So…assuming that ‘Bama can skate past the Tigers on the road, they’ll have to lock up with what is looking to be more and more like the Florida Gators for the SEC Title.  The Red Raiders, however, have to face a very good Oklahoma team just to get to the Big 12 Title.  Odds are, if they do lose to the Sooners (in Norman, OK), they’ll have to rematch against them with tie-breaker win over Texas.  Back-to-back wins over Oklahoma or Texas (in the event that they get to play for the title) would be a tough task for any team.

Southern California moving up to #2.  This hurdle, we’ll deem “high.”  Not only do the Trojans need some of the abovementioned losses to unfold, but they would also need to look impressive enough to jump over a one-loss SEC team AND a one-loss Big 12 team.  Facing Cal, Stanford, Notre Dame and UCLA could offer an upset, sure.  But I wouldn’t put it past Pete Carroll to stomp mud holes week after week, including a Nationally televised bout against Charlie Weis, to prove a point to the BCS.  But even if they do, it is still out of their hands. 

And if you’re asking why this matters?  Because I can point you to a few million fans of college football that are dreading a rematch between the Trojans and the Buckeyes.  But if USC doesn’t go to #2…

The BCS would have to be alright with a rematch.  Personally, I think this hurdle is a lot higher than it should be.  As I mentioned last week, the talking heads fought tooth and nail two years ago to make sure that Ohio State/Michigan II did not occur.  And after losing by 30-plus the first time these two locked up, what motivation is there to make them play again?

Sure, this Buckeye team is a bit different than that of the first game.  However, assuming that Ohio State wins out, they’re not even the Big Ten champions – which is the spot that is typically assumed in the Rose Bowl.  If Oklahoma wins the Big 12, either Texas or Texas Tech will not be getting a BCS bid.  Could you argue that Ohio State is a better team than either the Longhorns or Red Raiders?

If a replacement selection is made, Ohio State fans have to cling to the Sugar Bowl if they have BCS hopes.  Of course, this would likely provide us with our third straight bowl game against an SEC team (the loser of the SEC title), providing quite the story line.  And if that doesn’t happen, the Buckeyes still face an SEC team in either the Capital One Bowl, or Outback Bowl.

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Alas, the Ohio State Buckeyes have quite a journey ahead of them if they plan on making the Rose Bowl.  The tough part is, aside from winning out, there is someone else turning the pages in this Choose Your Own Adventure book.  The Penn State Nittany Lions should have no huge problems getting to the BCS title, using the past as a barometer. 

But with the looming madness in the SEC and Big 12, the rest of the season will undoubtedly provide some high entertainment.  All we can really do is take care of our own business, and watch these other teams beat ruin the hopes of their division rivals, ultimately helping ours.