The Big Ten: Hoping For More Breaks
Written By: Scott | Category: General, Ohio State Buckeyes | Comments: 11
The Big Ten just can’t catch a break. Despite beating Ohio State two weeks ago, and the top-ranked Texas Longhorns dropping at the hands of the Texas Tech Red Raiders, the Penn State Nittany Lions are still ranked third overall in the BCS. This is all thanks to the computer poll that has bumped Texas Tech up to the second slot thanks to their first place tie between them and the Alabama Crimson Tide.
In fact, the computers like Texas Tech so much that the Texas loss only bumped them down to fourth overall in the BCS Standings. Let that settle in for a second. Penn State won the biggest game of their season, and did not move up in the polls. So, those thoughts of an Ohio State Rose Bowl bid has hit another snag.
**
Here are the hurdles:
Penn State’s schedule. We’ll give this a hurdle rate of “low.” The Lions travel to Iowa, and then play Indiana (they have a football team!?) and then Michigan State at home. These are all games that should easily be won by PSU, unless they start to look ahead. The Spartans are coming off of a huge win against the free-falling Wisconsin Badgers. However, the luster of a game-winning field goal should be more than warn off by the time they travel to Happy Valley.
Not controlling destiny. This one is more “moderate” than anything. Not being rewarded for a huge win (if you’re Penn State) is a bitter pill. Hoping for another really strong team to lose at this point in the year is tough. However, looking at the remaining schedules of both Alabama and Texas Tech:
- Alabma: @ LSU, Off, Mississippi State, Auburn, SEC Title Game
- Texas Tech: Oklahoma State, Off, @ Oklahoma, Baylor, Big 12 Title Game
So…assuming that ‘Bama can skate past the Tigers on the road, they’ll have to lock up with what is looking to be more and more like the Florida Gators for the SEC Title. The Red Raiders, however, have to face a very good Oklahoma team just to get to the Big 12 Title. Odds are, if they do lose to the Sooners (in Norman, OK), they’ll have to rematch against them with tie-breaker win over Texas. Back-to-back wins over Oklahoma or Texas (in the event that they get to play for the title) would be a tough task for any team.
Southern California moving up to #2. This hurdle, we’ll deem “high.” Not only do the Trojans need some of the abovementioned losses to unfold, but they would also need to look impressive enough to jump over a one-loss SEC team AND a one-loss Big 12 team. Facing Cal, Stanford, Notre Dame and UCLA could offer an upset, sure. But I wouldn’t put it past Pete Carroll to stomp mud holes week after week, including a Nationally televised bout against Charlie Weis, to prove a point to the BCS. But even if they do, it is still out of their hands.
And if you’re asking why this matters? Because I can point you to a few million fans of college football that are dreading a rematch between the Trojans and the Buckeyes. But if USC doesn’t go to #2…
The BCS would have to be alright with a rematch. Personally, I think this hurdle is a lot higher than it should be. As I mentioned last week, the talking heads fought tooth and nail two years ago to make sure that Ohio State/Michigan II did not occur. And after losing by 30-plus the first time these two locked up, what motivation is there to make them play again?
Sure, this Buckeye team is a bit different than that of the first game. However, assuming that Ohio State wins out, they’re not even the Big Ten champions – which is the spot that is typically assumed in the Rose Bowl. If Oklahoma wins the Big 12, either Texas or Texas Tech will not be getting a BCS bid. Could you argue that Ohio State is a better team than either the Longhorns or Red Raiders?
If a replacement selection is made, Ohio State fans have to cling to the Sugar Bowl if they have BCS hopes. Of course, this would likely provide us with our third straight bowl game against an SEC team (the loser of the SEC title), providing quite the story line. And if that doesn’t happen, the Buckeyes still face an SEC team in either the Capital One Bowl, or Outback Bowl.
**
Alas, the Ohio State Buckeyes have quite a journey ahead of them if they plan on making the Rose Bowl. The tough part is, aside from winning out, there is someone else turning the pages in this Choose Your Own Adventure book. The Penn State Nittany Lions should have no huge problems getting to the BCS title, using the past as a barometer.
But with the looming madness in the SEC and Big 12, the rest of the season will undoubtedly provide some high entertainment. All we can really do is take care of our own business, and watch these other teams beat ruin the hopes of their division rivals, ultimately helping ours.
Author: Scott
Scott is a co-founder/editor of Waiting For Next Year who resides in Cleveland, Ohio. Feel free to follow him on Twitter or email him at scott@waitingfornextyear.com.Scott has written 1701 articles for Waiting for Next Year.
At this point, I’m not even hoping for the Rose Bowl. I’d like to see us play an SEC team so we can try to get that gorilla off our backs…
Penn Ptate beat a lesser opponent in Ohio State than Texas tech did in beating THE NUMBER ONE TEAM IN THE NATION. of course they are going to hurdle an idle team. One of the top two teams are going to lose, and Penn St will win out, and Ohio state will make it to the Rose Bowl.
Oh, and if both Bama and TT win out, they deserve it over PSU. Its as simple as that.
agreed, wj. same as if texas would have won out. I just think that there’s going to be another “Missouri” this year… it’s just a matter of who’s the odd man out.
outback bowl: ohio state vs south carolina. ship it!
Goooo COCKS
I can’t see TexasTech making it through Okie State AND OK on the road. What I will be amazed by is is Texas beat OK, Tech beat Texas, and if OK beats Tech. That’s a pretty messed up Big 12 triangle.
Rick, I agree 100%. I for one don’t want to see OSU play USC in California again
Texas Tech, Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State (along with Baylor) are all in the Big 12 South.
Therefore, they cannot meet again in the Big 12 Title game. The Big 12 North looks like it will go to the winner of the Kansas vs. Missouri game (though Kansas could fall too far behind before that game).
Tech still has an incredible gauntlet the next couple weeks…but does not have to beat any of these 3 teams twice.
Also, if Ohio State wins out and Michigan State does not, we are pretty much assured a BCS game.
Teams that are almost assured to make a BCS game at this point:
2 Big 12 teams (between Tech, UT, Ok, Okie St)
2 SEC teams (most likely Bama and UF)
Penn State
USC
Big East champ
ACC champ
Best Non-BCS team (TCU, Utah, BYU, or Boise)
That is 9 teams for 10 slots. The bowl with the 10th slot choice will have to choose between:
Ohio State (if we win out, 10-2)
2nd best non-BCS team
ACC 2nd place team (possibly Florida State, GTech, Maryland)
Big East 2nd place team (possibly West Virginia or Cincy)
First, the 2nd place ACC / Big East teams would have to even qualify, which may be very difficult to do.
Second, bowls are all about making $$$…so they will most likely pick a team that travels well, gets good TV ratings and brings a buzz (rooting against counts => see ND). This pretty much rules out any bad traveling team and small school.
That leaves Ohio State and possibly Florida State if they are able to go up in the BCS standings while not winning the ACC (only team I could see a bowl picking over Ohio State from current possibilities).
(note: If Michigan State wins out, they have to beat Penn State to do it and will be in a 3-way tie for Big10 crown. They own the tiebreaker and would head to Pasadena. Then, Penn State could be the 2nd Big 10 team selected for a BCS game)
Note to Penn State:
If you want to be considered a big dog, PLAY SOMEBODY.
The Big 12 and SEC both have conference championships. More than likely at least one of Bama and Tech will lose and Penn State will win out. I dont have confidence that Penn State would beat either of those two in the NC. It might be better for the Big 10 if they dont make it.
Why would it be better for the Big 10 if they don’t make it?
At least the SEC or Big XII winner won’t have homefield advantage in Miami (well, UF is still a couple hour drive away).
Not like USC does in the Rose Bowl at least.