WaitingForNextYear

Here at Waiting For Next Year, we are constantly trying to bring the broadest spectrum of opinion, news, and analysis to our readers as we can. We appreciate that you guys give us an audience to share our own insights with you, but sometimes it’s nice to get a fresh, outside opinion.

Well, when you want opinion on the Cavaliers, there is no better person to turn to than Amar Panchmatia of Cavalier Attitude. Amar and the crew over at CA do a great job of covering the Cavaliers on a day to day basis. So when Amar approached me about working on a piece together, I was more than happy to oblige. Amar is one of my favorite people to discuss the Cavaliers with, because he will always give you a straight-to-the-point opinion without any fluff or circular logic. It’s that matter of fact style that makes him one of the most unique voices covering the Cavaliers today.

So we decided after a few emails back and forth to just share an email conversation we had with you guys. It’s just a chance to give you guys someone else’s opinions on some the big topics we’ve been talking about here on this site for a while. I hope you enjoy it.  

Rock: Going into this season, I know you were slightly more optimistic than I was with regards to how good this team could be this year, but I think it’s safe to say that to this point, they have exceeded both our expectations. I’m curious what you think the reason for the hot start was? Was it more than just the addition of Mo Williams?

Amar: It’s incredible how much even a good — not great — point guard can elevate this team to the level it is at right now. I know that it’s not that hard to remember the times when everyone and their mother was calling for the Cavs to get some kind of a point guard, and although Mo Williams is just solid, even “solid” is good enough to make this team an NBA heavyweight.

That said, Williams isn’t the only reason that the team is playing at the pace they are at right now. The Cavs finally have a power forward who makes exceptional defensive rotations and fits into Mike Brown’s team defense philosophies in Ben Wallace. They have a shooting guard who can score points in a variety of ways in Delonte West. They have (or had, until the recent injury) a center who is difficult to guard and who defends the paint in Zydrunas Ilgauskas.

Team chemistry was the reason for last year’s disaster. Now, everyone’s on the same page, which is very rare to find on an NBA team these days. You have unselfish guys who understand their roles, a clear superstar leader who knows that it’s all on him, and a coach who pays attention to details and works tirelessly to turn weaknesses into strengths.

Does that all sound familiar? Sounds like the four-time NBA champion San Antonio Spurs to me. The Cavs were always meant to be built in that image, and GM Danny Ferry has all but succeeded in doing that to this point.

The Cavs have always been one of the best — it not the best — rebounding teams in the NBA. But in the games without Ilgauskas, they are getting beat on the boards, including getting beat badly last Sunday at Washington. Despite being able to plug in just as efficient of a rebounder in Anderson Varejao at center and having quick big guys like J.J. Hickson and Darnell Jackson off the bench, why can’t the Cavs maintain the same edge on the glass? What needs to be done so that the Cavs don’t rely so heavily on their all-time rebounding leader to maintain their exceptional edge in rebouding?

You know, that question has really been killing me this year. Sometimes they look like the Cavaliers of years past, just dominating on the glass….and other times, they just can’t seem to buy a rebound. Beyond just the absence of Ilgauskas, they weren’t very consistent on the boards even with him. Somehow, with Z’s size, Wallace’s rejuvenation, Andy’s hustle and energy, and LeBron’s athleticism, the Cavs are still getting beat on the glass. I don’t really have a good answer for this, because I cannot figure it out for the life of me. If I had to give my best guess, I’d say it goes back to the old saying that rebounding is all about desire. Those who want the rebound most will get it more often than not. For whatever reason, the Cavaliers’ hunger and desire for rebounding just isn’t there this year.

Which leads me to another question. Right now, the Cavs are slumping a bit, playing less than stellar basketball. A part of me wonders if this team is already looking ahead to the playoffs, and perhaps that’s a part of why the rebounding desire is lacking as well. So my question, then, is this….are you at all concerned about the offensive decline the Cavaliers are experiencing right now, and what do you think are some of the causes of it?

Absolutely I’m concerned about the offensive decline. The Cavs were clicking on all cylinders to start the year; their shooters were hitting their shots, Z was getting buckets inside, LeBron and Varejao were running their pick-n-roll to a tee, and Mo Williams had fit into the team seamlessly. I think Z’s injury at Philadelphia in mid-December was when the funk started, and the Cavs have been struggling to get back to where they were for the first month and a half of the season. It’s not necessarily looking ahead to the playoffs; look at their production before Z’s injury and after Z’s injury. It’s like two different teams.

Even when the big fella came back, there were reports that he had come back prematurely, was still experiencing soreness, and couldn’t move the same way he used to before the injury. That makes a huge difference. Everyone who watched the Cavs this season knows just how big of an impact Z had on the team, and his absence completely eliminates any kind of low-post threat. Now you have LeBron surrounded by a bunch of shooters, and when those shots aren’t falling, you’re also missing one of the best offensive rebounders in the game.

Ilgauskas is tremendously important to this team, and he is sorely (no pun intended…bad, I know) missed.

Do you think the Cavs make a move to offset this loss? I know that the sacred team chemistry has been used as an argument to leave things as they are, but if the Cavs start losing ground and fall behind in the next couple of weeks or even the next month, does Danny Ferry decide that he needs to do something to add another scorer – maybe a low post scorer – to the mix to make sure the Cavs don’t experience a drop-off in production?

I’m a huge chemistry guy, and I think it’s about as important as almost anything else in the NBA. Teams with good chemistry off the court play better basketball as a group on the court. That being said, often times, a team’s chemistry is only as good as their record. Something tells me if the Cavaliers keep playing the way they are right now and keep losing to lesser teams, you’re not going to be reading quite as many articles about how the team is hanging out together in the locker room after games and how everyone hangs out together and laughs together, etc, etc, etc. So I’m not as concerned about chemistry right now as I am with the Cavaliers finding someone to pick up the offensive slack while Z is out. The important thing is to find someone to come in who can fit in with the rest of the team.

There are a couple guys I’m keeping my eye on. It kills me to know that the Knicks are talking to teams about trading David Lee, but the Cavaliers are not in on those discussions. Lee isn’t a traditional center by any means, at only 6′9″, but he plays like one, averaging a double-double this year. He’s a tenacious rebounder and I believe he could grow into a very good defender under Mike Brown.

Antawn Jamison is another player I have always loved and would be ecstatic to see him join the Cavaliers. I think Jamison could be a more realistic possibility than people think. The Wizards are now at a crossroad. Do they hang onto their core of Arenas, Butler, and Jamison and keep praying that one of these years it works? Or do they look at where they’re at, and decide to blow it up? If the Wizards wanted to rebuild, now would be the time to do it. You could trade Jamison and Butler for expiring contracts, and then next season have some really nice cap space, plus, they should get a pretty high draft pick as well. I’m not saying that’s what they’ll do, I’m just saying it would make sense. The Wizards aren’t going anywhere this season, they fired their coach, and this formula of building around that core hasn’t worked for them. If I were the Wizards GM, I would think long and hard about rebuilding in this offseason while you can.

What are your thoughts on this? Do you think the Cavaliers should try to make a move, and if so, what players do you have your eye on?

I really like the David Lee part…there were rumors here in Portland this week that the Blazers have a serious man-crush on Lee and want him in their lineup. With guys like LaMarcus Aldridge, Greg Oden, and Joel Przybilla, I don’t understand why they would be so interested, yet the Cavs, with a Jurassic front line of 33-year old Z and 34-year old Wallace, would not be. I would even give up Anderson Varejao and picks to the Knicks for Lee, because he would be a tremendous upgrade and exactly the kind of athletic, talented big man that can excel playing with LeBron and all these shooters.

The Jamison trade is also interesting, but considering that he’s 32, I’d hope that Ferry can get him for just Szczerbiak’s expiring plus just one (this summer’s) first-round pick. Mortgaging more than that for a guy who may have, at most, three good years left would be too crippling, and we all know that Ferry doesn’t make trades unless he’s giving up next to nothing for a whole heck of a lot in return (see: Flip Murray trade, Mo Williams trade).

But who would I want to see? I think that one of this team’s biggest weaknesses is frontcourt players, so keeping with that theme, a realistic target could be Andrei Kirilenko from Utah. The Jazz have three free agents this summer: Paul Millsap, our boy Boozer, and Mehmet Okur. They’re right up against the luxury tax threshold, which owner Larry Miller has vowed not to exceed. AK-47 comes off the bench and has an eight-figure salary, and that’s counterproductive to their economics over there based in the league’s smallest market. I think that it’s possible that the Cavs can fleece AK-47 off the Jazz for Wally’s expiring and nothing else. This way, they keep their draft picks, they keep their young talent, and just pick up another good young talent (Kirilenko turns only 28 next month) for next to nothing.

It gives the Cavs tremendous flexibility in their rotation. They can play Kirilenko at the power forward, move LeBron to the four and play AK-47 at the three, or move Kirilenko to the bench like Utah does (because, unlike Utah, Cleveland can afford to). Plus, it gives the Cavs a shutdown defender to put on Paul Pierce in their inevitable playoff series and allows LeBron to save some energy on defense by guarding someone else. That would make a tremendous difference.

Gerald Wallace is another guy that has been mentioned, and I wouldn’t mind getting him even though backcourt play isn’t the Cavs’ weakness (wow, remember the days when they were trotting out Eric Snow and Ira Newble as the guards?). Wallace can also play multiple positions, is only 26, and would inject talent and defensive intensity into this team. Given his young age, I wouldn’t mind seeing the Cavs give up expirings plus this summer’s first-rounder for him.

The closer we get to the deadline, the more you’re going to see the price tags on a lot of these guys drop — kind of like a “clearance sale.” We all saw how desperate Memphis got to dump Pau Gasol last February.

How about Orlando, by the way? I recently did a piece on MVN talking about which team is more likely to dethrone Boston in the East between Orlando and Cleveland. The Magic are playing phenomenal ball, and their record is right up there with the Cavs, Celtics, and Lakers. They have one of the best road records and are good at winning close games. Before we jump the gun to an Eastern Conference Final with Boston, how do you think a best-of-seven series between the Cavs and the Magic would look?

For the record, I’m on board with Kirilenko. I’d be a little concerned that his contract runs past 2010, but if the Cavaliers re-sign Varejao, I think the Cavaliers’ 2010 cap space becomes a bit of a moot point anyway since they won’t realistically have the cap space to sign another “A-List” free agent that summer, so you might as well front load the salary through trade. You just have to be sure AK is the guy you want long term. The problem is, I’m not sure the Jazz are going to make a serious attempt to keep Boozer, and I think it’s more likely Boozer goes on the block rather than Kirilenko. But time will tell.

As for the Magic, there is a lot to worry about there. They are a tremendous 3-point shooting team (tremendous is putting it lightly, too), and they get a lot of really good looks because teams have to worry so much about Dwight Howard underneath. It seems like at times the Cavaliers don’t do a great job of extending their defense and challenging outside shots, and that’s a deadly mistake against the Magic. Furthermore, the Magic are finally starting to play some defense this year, and that’s making the difference for them. On their offense alone they are probably the 3^rd best team in the East. When they play defense, they become an elite team. Having said that, I’m not sure volume shooting from the outside is the way to win in the postseason. I’m struggling to think of teams who have won the Finals with a team that shot as much from 3 as the Magic do. In a 7 game series, your margin for error is so small that you can’t afford to be off.

When the Cavaliers went to the Finals, they were ostensibly a 3 point shooting team outside of LeBron and Z, as they would tend to just drive and kick, and the Spurs completely exposed the Cavs and showed what happens when you shoot a lot from the outside without making your shots. Anytime you make 23 threes in one game like the Magic did the other night, though, you’re putting yourself in a position to win. We’ve yet to see the Cavaliers play the Magic this year, so I’m not sure how the matchup will look, but I would guess the key would be closing out on the Orlando shooters. Dwight Howard is going to get his, and of course it will be key to see who does the best job defending him. Is Z quick enough? Is Ben big enough? Is Andy disciplined enough? But you can live with Howard beating you. But if Howard is beating you AND the Magic are getting good looks from the outside, it will be a tough matchup for the Cavaliers. That’s what I want to see. Can Gibson defend the perimeter well enough, or will Mike Brown have to play Pavlovic more against them to use his size on the perimeter? Those are the questions that come to my mind. I think in the playoffs I trust Mike Brown to figure out how to defend Orlando and as long as Cleveland has home court, I feel like it’s a series they would win, but the Magic are by no means a team to be taken lightly whatsoever.

Speaking of the playoffs, we have a poll question up on our site right now asking who is the toughest playoff matchup for the Cavaliers? Is it still the old guard, the defending champs, the team who knocked Cleveland out last season….the Boston Celtics? Is it the old division rival Pistons? Is it the elite team nobody is talking about, the Orlando Magic? Or will it be one of the fringe teams who will find a niche matchup issue to exploit, such as Atlanta or Miami? What is your opinion? Which team scares you the most?

Orlando is a scary team, and I think that their youth and energy will play in their favor. I really think that once Ilgauskas comes back, the Cavs are the best team in the East no matter who they play, but the Magic are the one team that can take them out. They kind of remind me of the ‘07 Cavs on steroids in that they have nothing to lose, they have some playoff experience under their belt, and their pieces are coming together. But, of course, they are infinitely more talented.

A best-of-seven series between these two teams would be very exciting. Both squads are soaking wet with shooters, they play good defense, and they both have deep benches. Rebounding would be a huge x-factor in this series, and with the Cavs’ one-sided advantage in this department, they’d have to use that to put this series away.

The Celtics are a tough out, but the Cavs know that they can beat them, especially after their close series last year. The Hawks and the Heat can’t hang for seven games. But Orlando has a variety of weapons to throw out there, and they have been just as good — if not better — in blowing the doors off weak opponents. They are well-coached, athletic, and versatile, and although I don’t expect it, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Magic defeated the Cavs in a best-of-seven series.

But like I said, I don’t expect it.

My thanks again to Amar for joining in on this. Now, I turn it over to you readers. Amar and I have both shared our concerns about the Magic with you, and the Magic are one of the few teams the Cavaliers haven’t played yet this year. So tell us, what do you think? Are the Magic the team the Cavs should most worry about?