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Every Tuesday, WFNY’s The 5-Hole brings you up to date with the goings-on of the CBJ…

The Week That Was

Week: 3-0-1, 7 points
Overall: 28-23-6, 62 points (3rd division; 8th conference)

It was a busy week with four games, and the Jackets are now three games into a stretch of six games in nine days, which is definitely a rough stretch for any team, let alone a team trying to make the playoffs in a crowded conference. After earning nine points in their last five games, the Jackets are definitely back in the thick of it, however. They are tied with two other teams at 62 points, and sit in eighth place based on the “games played” tie-breaker currently in effect. They also missed a golden opportunity to take sole possession of fifth place on Monday night against Dallas. More on that after the jump.

Tuesday, 2/10 in Columbus – Blue Jackets 3, Avalanche 0 (Recap)
Friday, 2/13 in Columbus – Blue Jackets 3, Red Wings 2 (Box Score) – Highlights
Saturday, 2/14 in Raleigh – Blue Jackets 5, Hurricanes 1 (Box Score) – Highlights
Monday, 2/16 in Columbus – Stars 3, Blue Jackets 2 – SO (Box Score) – Highlights

I know my coverage over the weekend wasn’t as solid as perhaps in weeks past, but due to my travel schedule heading south, it was unavoidable. A four game week in which the team earns seven out of a possible eight points is a great week. The only real problem was that the one game in which they needed to beat a team in regulation (Dallas) was the game they lost, albeit in a shoot-out to earn at least one point. More on the playoff race below in a new section.

The Jackets have definitely been playing harder of late, evidenced by their record over the last five games. That’s not to say there are not still problems. They have been unable to capitalize on a lot of scoring chances (not to single out Malhotra). Coach Ken Hitchcock was vocal about this fact after the Dallas game last night: “If we’re going to be a playoff team, we’re going to need more from (our forwards),” Hitchcock said. “If we do that, we’re going to be in really good shape. But it’s got to happen. We’ve been thinking about (healthy scratches and line changes) for a while now as a coaching staff, but it’s time to start acting on it.”

They have been having trouble turning the puck over in their own zone (more on that below, too), but have been able to make up for it with solid goaltending and some timely shot blocking. They need to shore that up, because they can’t solely rely on goal-tending to win games, especially when the offense struggles to score goals on any given night.

The schedule to come isn’t too bad, but just as it has its high points it also has its low points. The Dispatch’s Aaron Portzline studied the schedule and broke down those highs and lows:

Here’s the “sunny side up” look at the schedule:
• The Blue Jackets play 12 of the 28 games against clubs currently below them in the overall NHL standings, including four against St. Louis and three vs. Nashville. Then again, the Jackets are 0-2 vs. St. Louis, and Nashville is, well, Darth Vader, so that might not be such a good thing.
• The Blue Jackets have only one three-game trip, a swing through Calgary (Feb. 24), Edmonton (Feb. 26) and Vancouver (March 1). There are three two-game trips remaining, and five single-game trips.
• The Blue Jackets will play 19 games in the Eastern time zone and six of the other nine in the Central zone.

Here’s the “scrambled eggs” view:
• The Jackets will play 15 games in March, their busiest month since December 2006.
• March 7-18 could go down as the “march toward golf season,” as the Blue Jackets play Detroit, Boston, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Detroit and Chicago during a 12-day stretch.
• The Blue Jackets have six back-to-backs.
• Beginning [2/13] against Detroit, the Blue Jackets play five games in seven days and six games in nine days.

GM Scott Howson said that while every team has issues with their schedule, “ours is pretty fair, though”. I disagree, relative to the number of back-to-backs this team plays, but I suspect the GM can’t say things like that in the paper.

Still nothing on the trading deadline front. There have been no new rumors to report. I will keep you all posted if anything comes up.

Playoff Update

Thanks to the tip from my brother last week, I am now addicted to the Sports Club Stats website that runs daily simulations and predicts probability of playoff finishes by conference. This site is updated daily, and also weights each game to show how every outcome affects each team in the race. You can click on any team’s page (and of the team links below) to see who you should root for each and every day in every game. It’s a pretty comprehensive site, and keeps me from having to do a bunch of math.

Rather than reprise my giant “points per game” table from last week, I’m going to link up to this site and provide you the playoff probabilities every Tuesday in this 5-Hole space. We’ll start from fifth place on down, since the top four on SCS’s charts are all above 98% probability to make the playoffs, and no one fifth and below really has a shot to knock one of them out.

This week’s Western Conference playoff probabilities standings, thanks to Sports Club Stats:

(key: points – derived from record, 2 pts for a win, 0 for a loss, 1 for an overtime loss; G-I-H – games in hand; this number is the amount of games the team has left subtracted from the number of games played by the team who has played the most in the conference; Record – the team’s record, with wins, losses, and overtime losses [shoot-outs count as an overtime loss]; Playoff% is the probability in percent of the team making the playoffs based on their simulations)

Up Next

The Jackets have another busy week, with week three games sandwiched around a back-to-back complete with road trip. Thankfully, the opponents are not juggernauts, but the Jackets are being made to burn the candle at both ends these past two weeks. The Jackets host St. Louis (55pts, t13th) with a chance to attone for their loss two weeks ago. They turn around the next night with a trip to Toronto (maybe they can stop off at the league offices and complain about this ridiculous schedule stretch) and face the Maple Leafs (52pts, t11th EC). They then get a day off, and then return to Nationwide arena to host Anaheim (61pts, 9th). 5-Hole will be in attendance on Saturday night, and it will be another game that will be of huge impact on the playoff standings.

Full Schedule

Who’s Hot, Who’s Not

Hot: Special Teams. We’ve documented ad nauseum the struggles on the Power Play (still 30th, guys, ahem), and the Jackets have been streaky on the PK for most of the season. Well, they have managed to move their Power Play percentage to 12.3%, scoring two goals against Carolina on the PP Saturday and another against Dallas last night. They do get a proverbial asterisk, because when they needed the PP in the third period and overtime, it was not strong again. The other side of this is the penalty kill. The Jackets have killed off 16 penalties in a row, and over the last 10 games since the All Star Break, they have killed off 33 of a possible 36 penalties (91.7%), raising their overall kill percentage on the season to 81.7%, good enough for a tie for 14th place in the league. This is obviously a big part of the game, and being solid on the PK only helps the club continue to compete for that elusive playoff spot.

Not: Puck handling. It’s hard to call out any one player when the team is on a 4-0-1 streak, but the one thing that has been troubling has been the puck handling in the defensive zone. The Jackets have been successful in spite of it, but much of that has been thanks to Steve Mason and Dan LaCosta. For example, the Jackets didn’t do a great job in Carolina in their own zone, but Steve Mason played well, and the team blocked 26 shots to compensate. Imagine how the complexion of the game might have changed if even half of those shots had gotten on goal.

Injury Update

The team suffered one rather moderate injury this week, losing forward Fredrik Modin after Saturday’s win in Carolina. Modin sprained his knee, and is slated to miss at least one week, and possibly more depending on how the knee responds. The unfortunate part of the injury was that it happened nearly at the end of the 5-1 win when the outcome was not in any doubt. Modin went to the net, and was checked into the goalpost. Not a dirty play, but sadly an unnecessary injury. Modin’s veteran leadership, effort, and grit will be missed for the duration of his injury.

Quotes of the Week

We know the importance of these games as they come. In an organization that has never been to the playoffs, the older players have to show the younger players the quality or work and attention to detail that must go into these games.
–Forward Michael Peca, talking about the importance of each game and of veteran leadership (such as his own) down the stretch.

It’s a time of the season when you have to draw on the positives. But we gave up two soft goals, goals you just can’t give up this time of year when you’re in our position. In games like this, it seems like every little mistake comes back to haunt you.
–Peca, after the shoot-out loss to Dallas on Monday night.