WaitingForNextYear

LeBron and Joe Smith like "The Boots"

The Boots is a regular feature over at my blog www.jrosen.wordpress.com where I assign “Boot Ups” or “Boot Downs” to various things in the sports world. I started doing these features since my brothers always teased me as a little kid with the nickname “Boot” and I thought it was an appropriate way to stick it back to them with my sports writing. It works a lot like While We’re Waiting in that I have tons of links to outside sources and articles, and I hope you enjoy!

Boot Up: Joe Smith as a Cavalier – A couple weeks ago I looked at the possible numbers Cavaliers fans could expect from former Maryland Terrapin Joe Smith in a Cleveland uniform for the rest of the season. In his 17 performances thus far for the Cavaliers, I am proud to announce that he is performing admirably close to his career averages. He came into this part of the season averaging 20.11 points, and 11.65 rebounds per 48 minutes along with shooting 45.6% from the field. In his time with the Cavaliers this season, he is averaging 15.76 points, 11.93 rebounds and is shooting 50.0% from the field while. Interestingly, the main reason why he is averaging fewer points is that he is only taking 13.25 shots per 48 minutes in his 326 minutes with the Cavaliers. In his entire career coming in, he averaged 17.00 shots and even in his time with the Cavaliers last season he averaged 14.07 shots per 48 minutes.

When you think about Smith’s production, initially most people would think it would also in turn harm the production of forward Anderson Varejao. Andy missed the game on Sunday against the San Antonio Spurs, but besides that has played and has played a lot since the acquisition of Smith (32.3 minutes per game). You can partially credit the absence of Ben Wallace in that regard, but in the last few weeks the two players are averaging a combined 51.49 minutes per game and Andy’s numbers have not gone down at all. When Ben Wallace returns from injury, I still believe he should be the starter. The Cavaliers have allowed 44.0 points in the paint the last three games, which would rank tied for #27 in the NBA compared to their 37.2 average and #7 current ranking. In addition, we are a much better defensive squad without a doubt when Ben is on the court as the team averages 98.1 points allowed per 100 possessions when he is on the court for the Cavaliers and 104.8 points when he is off the court.

Boot Up: University of Akron in 2009 – It has been quite a while since I touched base on information related to my hometown Akron Zips but there is a whole lot going on with ever-growing university these days. First off, the football team led by Head Coach J.D. Brookhardt will be playing in a brand spanking new stadium this coming fall. The Infocision Stadium will be right in the middle of downtown Akron and is a definite most visit among everyone’s football plans for this coming season. The team on the field should be decent as well, as they return a bunch of starters, especially on offense from their 5-7, 3-5 season just one year ago.

Most importantly however, is the news related to the basketball program. Coach Keith Dambrot led the Zips to their first NCAA Tournament since 1985 this past season (the same time away from the dance as the CSU Vikings), and the #13 Zips lost a decent first-half lead in a first-round loss to eventual Sweet Sixteen team #4 Gonzaga. According to my father, Dambrot may be one of the leading candidates for the recently opened position at Xavier, but that might be a mistake when you consider the recruiting class he has coming. The Zips lose only two players off their historic 23-13 ball club, and coming in to town will be the biggest (literally) recruit in the history of the program. Center Zeke Marshall stands 6-11 and is the #9 center, and the #70 prospect in the ESPNU100 from McKeesport, Pennsylvania. The upside on this kid is ridiculous, and I am hoping for several more successful season under Coach Dambrot with the killer combination of (sophomore) Humpty (Hitchens) and Zeke.

Boot Down: Carl Pavano in 2009 – I know he has yet to start a game this entire season, but I am already down on the prospects of Carl Pavano in an Indians uniform. The former Montreal Expo and Florida Marlin had his best seasons back in 2000 (8-4 with a 3.06 ERA) and 2004 (18-8 with a 3.00 ERA). Unfortunately, he has only pitched 100 innings or more 6 times in his career, meaning that the 33-year-old has had five years of less than 100 innings pitched since breaking into the Major Leagues in 1998. A few weeks ago, I predicted he would finish with only eighty innings or so this year, and I am sticking right around that stat. Just take a quick look at his stats the last four seasons since signing with the New York Yankees:

2005: 17 games started, 4-6 with a 4.77 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP
2006: Zero innings pitched
2007: 2 games started, 1-0 with a 4.77 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP
2008: 7 games started, 4-2 with a 5.77 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP

In addition, Carl Pavano averaged slightly below five and two-thirds innings per start over all these seasons. In 2009, if he pitched 80 innings while continuing with that many innings pitched per game started, he would have about 14 starts. That many starts would arguably take us up to the end of June or early July, by which time I surely think that one of the starters from Buffalo will be ready for the jump to the Major Leagues. In his entire eleven-year career, Pavano only has four seasons with a batting average below .300 and an ERA below 4.50 to go along with at least 100 innings pitched. That means that in his entire career, you could reasonably expect him to perform at a below average level for a starting pitcher, and that should be the case in 2009, five years removed from doing so well at the Major League level. I have very little expectations for Pavano this season, and though it was a low-risk, high-reward type signing that the Indians had to make, it probably will not work too will with this pitcher.

Boot Down: Cavaliers on the road – I touched on this subject not too long ago over at my blog, and with only a few more games left in the regular season, I wanted to finalize the topic for the time being heading into the playoffs. My conclusions from earlier in the season were that LeBron James shoots more on the road, and that is less conducive to our success. While he is busy shooting, the other players on the team have a hard time getting into a rhythm offensively, which then hurts our entire team’s all-around performance. In the past 14 road games, this theme has been even more noticeable as LeBron has averaged about 21.4 field goal attempts in these games. While his shooting has certainly gotten better away from the Quicken Loans Arena (shooting 44.1% from threes in these games), the Cavaliers still are only 9-5 in their last fourteen road games, compared to a perfect 15-0 in their last fifteen home games.

Did you know that since the home loss to the Los Angeles Lakers back on February 8, the Cavaliers have averaged more points scored away from the Quicken Loans Arena? Led by LeBron’s improved three-point shooting, the Cavs are averaging 98.2 on the road and 97.6 at home since this turning point in the season. The records show that scoring hardly matters at all, and this is obvious when you analyze all of the other aspects of the basketball game. As a team at home all year, the Cavs register an assist for 57.9% percent of their field goal makes and on the road, that number is only 51.8%. Over the last two months, the difference between those two numbers has increased slightly (59.4% to 50.4%), and that shows how the team is not as fluid offensively despite the better overall scoring. One other interesting fact is that the Cavaliers average more blocks and steals at home (13.75 compared to 11.40 per 48 minutes) while registering fewer fouls (18.95 at home, 20.99 on the road.) This is an interesting defensive phenomenon that would be intriguing to analyze across the entire NBA, and is certainly a big reason why the Cavaliers have not been as successful away from home recently.