Eric Wedge Wants to Run More
Fun fact: Of the 72 stolen bases that the Indians recorded last season, 47 of them were by Grady Sizemore and Josh Barfield.
Not fun fact: Only eight teams in the major leagues had fewer stolen bases than the Indians. Only three of the eight had a higher on-base percentage, showing less frequency of base theft.
But with the 2009 season still young, Tribe skipper Eric Wedge would like to rectify this problem.
“I think we’re more athletic, both the top and bottom of the lineup,” Wedge said, referring to Sizemore in the leadoff spot and Asdrubal Cabrera in the ninth slot.” I think stolen bases can be part of our game.”
Wedge has not exactly known for being the most aggressive on the basepaths. He’s never really been one for the sacrifice bunt as well. But while many think that he’s simply not one for wanting to give away outs, there is also thinking that he is simply doing what he can with what he has.
When it comes to stealing bases, the middle of the Indians’ lineup features Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner, Jhonny Peralta, and Ryan Garko/Kelly Shoppach. That’s more than half of a lineup of players who would get toasted by most offensive linemen in the 40-yard dash. But with the lineup the way it stands now, Wedge feels that he can take advantage of his three fastest every day players: Ben Francisco, Asdrubal Cabrera and Grady Sizemore, batting eighth, ninth and first.
Francisco has quite a resume on the bases, stealing 25 bags in 2006 and 22 in 2007 with a career success rate of 78.5 percent.
Obviously, there is more to running bases than just stealing them, so I would expect Wedge and third-base coach Joel Skinner to start by green-lighting those on base during singles. If the bats have a slow start as they did last season, he may have no choice but to be a bit more aggressive out of the gate to get more runs across the plate.
Of course, we can’t count out the use of Trevor Crowe and the abovementioned Barfield in high-leverage situations. The down side is that when two of your biggest threats on the bases are not regular players, this will not equate to frequent aggressiveness.
Then again, this could just all be coachspeak. I’m sure Wedge would like to run more, but we would all like to do a lot of things. When you have a head coach that has made the playoffs only one time in his seven-year tenure, resting on the laurels of the past will not work for the long-term future. Let’s hope he means it this time.
–
Tribe’s Francisco plans basepaths heists [Sheldon Ocker/Ohio.com]
April 8th, 2009 at 11:09 am
I never really understood how a baseball coach, at any level, isn’t a fan of the sac bunt. It’s a basic set play that every coach should use and it’s one of my major beefs with Eric Wedge. Clearly, the Indians have the personnel to do it (Sizemore, DeRosa, Cabrera, Choo, Francisco) and I don’t get why Wedge never does it. It would be like Mike Brown not using the pick-and-roll.
April 8th, 2009 at 11:41 am
I’ll believe this when I see it. Until Wedge is able to consistently provide this city with a winner, he will continue to be my least favorite Cleveland coach.
April 8th, 2009 at 11:48 am
It depends on your philosphy. I was always taught, and fervently believe, that the goal of batting is not to make outs. You only have a finite number of outs in any particular game and a sac bunt is giving up one of those outs.
However, I generally don’t have a problem if it is late in a close game with no one out to sac bunt. But it should be very limited in its use. Never, ever sac bunt n the first three innings.
Stealing bases is ok too, but only so long as you complete a high percentage of them — I think the accepted standard is that a team should be successful in their steal attempts between 75-80% of the time in order for steals to make sense. Again you don’t want to give up outs.
April 8th, 2009 at 12:04 pm
read moneyball to fully understand why there is skepticism on stealing/bunting
April 8th, 2009 at 12:12 pm
Something tells me this leopard isn’t changing its spots anytime soon. The Tribe has consistently had one of the worst coached baserunning teams in the majors for the last 5 years or so. Stealing more is a nice idea, but not getting caught in stupid rundowns and not getting picked off of first is better, as those are really wasted outs. I’m fine getting caught at home on a close play, because at least you’re trying. But getting thrown out by 10 feet? That’s bad decision making.
Hopefully is Wedge is being honest, his team will respond to being challenged to be aggressive. I’m sure nothing is more fun to offensive players than scoring runs, so hopefully this will lead to a more loose, fun and energetic offense.
April 8th, 2009 at 12:55 pm
Agree with Adam. The statistical revolution is here, boys, please come aboard. It’s been proven pretty conclusively that stealing bases and sac bunting do not lead to more runs sored. In fact, they lead to less especially in the AL with the DH.
The main base stealing and sac bunting goes on in the NL where the pitcher is a guaranteed out anyway.
Add in the fact that the tribe doesn’t have many natural basestealers and there is no reason for this team steal or bunt more. I would like to be more like the angels and be more aggressive on the bases (first to third on singles, etc).
Dan, your comparison to the pick and roll is not even close to reality.
April 8th, 2009 at 1:03 pm
Yup. Even if you’re successful 75% of the time, stealing can still cost your team runs. I read somewhere (Fangraphs I think, I’ll try to find it if anyone cares) that the Rays cost themselves 40 some-odd runs last year by stealing–and they were successful 76% of the time. The old logic just doesn’t hold up to the mathematical scrutiny.
I think the Indians need to improve BASERUNNING. That doesn’t mean stealing more bases. I can’t and won’t fault Wedge for believing in statistics. I hope we keep our attempted steals (and sac bunts) to a minimum this season.
April 8th, 2009 at 1:04 pm
Sizemore had a very good steal percentage last year. I don’t see any reason to mess with that. But Cabrera and Francisco were not good, so I don’t see any reason to send them more often.
April 8th, 2009 at 1:27 pm
Found it:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/07/science/07diam.html
Pretty interesting stuff on batting orders, sac bunts, and steals.
April 8th, 2009 at 1:50 pm
“I think the Indians need to improve BASERUNNING. That doesn’t mean stealing more bases.”
precisely why I said that they’re likely only going to increase their first-to-third and second-to-home work.
April 8th, 2009 at 1:56 pm
The people who scream for sac bunts and more steals know not of what they speak. Sac bunts should be used sparingly. In the last 3 innings of a one-run game when personnel allows. Period.
Statistics have shown that the only time sacrificing actually increases your odds of scoring is no outs, runners on 1st and 2nd.
April 8th, 2009 at 2:59 pm
My softball coach would like us to run more too. However, we have found that this strategy only works when we actually have baserunners. If the Tribe continue to only get 5 hits per game, running more is going to be the least of our worries. Hope our offense is a little more productive tonight.
April 8th, 2009 at 5:52 pm
With the steroid era in decline, pitching, defense and baserunning are more important. I think you’ll see an increase in steal attempts across all MLB, not just the Tribe.
April 9th, 2009 at 11:24 am
I find it interesting that as a new “fan of the Tribe”,I questioned why the rise and fall of the Tribe seemed to be single handedly blamed on David Dellucci,when by all accounts he spent most of his time on the bench…one article even mentioned the “Baseball Gods”,and his recent injury….While I “crossed over” as a fan of Mark Derosa…I, now, find myself facinated with David Dellucci,as even from the “DL”,he contiues to be the downfall of the Tribe…..though, Mr. Dellucci isn’t even travelling with the team,the teams record remains sad,….every day players striking out,hitting into double plays,and unable to get on base,yes,even Mark DeRosa has not had a good run lately… Apparently, Mr. Dellucci is some what like the “GREAT AND POWERFUL OZ” …. I hope he gets well quickly,and returns to the team that seems to, at this point, need another “scape goat” …Go Tribe……